Updated NBA Finals MVP Ahead of Game 5: Kawhi Heavily Favored, Curry Listed at 5-1, Durant at 22-1

• Kawhi Leonard is averaging 30.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game in the 2019 NBA Finals
• Steph Curry’s field goal and three-point shooting percentages have dropped in the Finals
• Kevin Durant is a game-time decision for Game 5

Game 5 of the NBA Finals has yet to be played, but it’s already delivered all sorts of drama. With Kevin Durant possibly returning, Twitter has been ablaze in “Gait Gate” as Durant’s walk in and out of practice has been examined thoroughly (cameras weren’t allowed during practice). Can he rescue the Golden State Warriors and win the NBA Finals MVP award, or is Kawhi Leonard the best bet for this prop?

2019 NBA Finals MVP Odds

Odds taken 06/10/19.

Leonard is the Heavy Favorite

It’s no surprise that the Finals MVP tends to go to the best player on the winning team and Leonard is that guy as of right now. Assuming the Toronto Raptors take care of business, there is literally no other conceivable option off their roster.

He’s currently averaging 30.8 points per game along with 10.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 3.0 threes, 2.0 steals, and 1.0 block while also hitting 11.3 free throws. Those numbers are on par will the all-time greats.

The Raptors have had some phenomenal games from the supporting cast with Pascal Siakam’s 32 in Game 1, Danny Green’s 18 in Game 3 and Serge Ibaka’s 20 in Game 4. However, no one has come close to Leonard’s production. If they win, the award is his. The oddsmakers agree as Leonard was +300 at one point; now he’s at -650.

Curry is at +500

Curry is second in line at +500, but the MVP situation looks fairly grim for him. His banged-up team is down 3-1 in the Finals. Of course, if they were to somehow come back, he’d be among the frontrunners. He’d have to be as if they come back, he’d be one of the chief reasons why.

However, his team has been absolutely whipped in the first four games of the series. Some might even argue that this series should already be over. The Warriors had just one field goal in the final 5:38 of Game 2 but managed to cling to a 109-104 win.

Curry is scoring 32.8 points per game but he’s shooting just 41.4% from the field and 34.9% from three.

Curry’s numbers don’t even look that strong. Yes, he’s scoring 32.8 points per game but he’s shooting just 41.4% from the field and 34.9% from three. That’s a sizable dip from the 47.1% and 42.5% he averaged in the Western Conference Finals.

The other issue is the Kevin Durant factor. At this point, everyone assumes that the Warriors are dead in the water unless Durant returns. If he does come back and he does dig them out of a 3-1 hole to win the series, he’s more likely to be viewed as the MVP than Curry.

Is Durant Worth a Flier?

Durant has been out for over a month with a right calf injury but he had a small practice on Sunday and went through a full shootaround on Monday, and is a game-time decision to play in Game 5. If he’s healthy, he could really change the dynamic of this series. The question is what can we really expect from Durant, who has been out a month?

The other issue is that Durant can’t save this team alone, can he? The Warriors are getting worked inside, their lack of depth is showing and even if Durant, Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala and Kevon Looney are playing, it’s clear none of them are at 100%.

Kevin Durant leaving #ScotiaBankArena after his first practice with the team since injury it his right calf. @steve21smith, @Dennis3DScott and I will have more on @NBATV at 8p/et, 5p/pt. #NBAFinals #DubNation pic.twitter.com/Xx8sqK6sHC

— Jared Greenberg (@JaredSGreenberg) June 9, 2019

The concern here is that that Raptors are not just eking out wins; they won by 13 in Game 4 at Golden State, by 14 in Game 3 at Golden State and by nine at home in Game 1. The lone close game was the loss in Game 2. Durant might only be able to even the scales, not tilt them in Golden State’s favor.

But if Durant is healthy and he can wake this Warriors team up, 22/1 is a very juicy price. It might be worth a look for about $5 or so, but the flipside of it is that Durant might not even play tonight and then you’ve just flushed $5 down the toilet.

Durant is heading into free agency and is likely to leave. Why risk it for a franchise who has mostly been ungrateful to him – especially Draymond Green? Maybe this is nothing more than mind games from the Warriors coaching staff, which makes this really hard to dissect. If you’re betting on Durant, you absolutely must wait until game time to ensure he’s playing.

What’s the Best Bet?

If Durant plays, I’d put a maximum of $5 on him just thinking of it as a dart throw. The reality is that this Warriors team isn’t healthy, they’re worn down and they don’t have home-court advantage. Kawhi Leonard is the best bet here but he’s not worth it at this price.