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Warriors vs Rockets Game 7 Preview: Will Chris Paul Return to Save Houston’s Season?

Ryan Murphy

by Ryan Murphy in NBA Basketball

Updated Jan 5, 2023 · 3:49 AM PST

Chris Paul warms up.
Chris Paul's status remains up in the air for tonight's critical Game 7 in Houston. Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire
  • It’s win or go home as the Warriors and Rockets face off tonight in a decisive Game 7
  • Can Chris Paul return from his hamstring injury in time to guide the Rockets?
  • Will Steph Curry and Klay Thompson continue to shoot the lights out for the second straight game?

The fate of Houston’s season come down to three words: Game Time Decision.

That’s the injury status of Chris Paul, who strained his right hamstring in the final minute of Houston’s dramatic Game 5 victory. The 33-year-old point guard has since spent nearly every second rehabbing his hammy so he can return tonight for the Rockets’ eagerly anticipated Game 7 match-up with the Warriors.

Houston was forced to soldier on without Paul in Game 6 in Oakland, and the results weren’t pretty as the Rockets squandered a 17-point first quarter lead and ended up losing by 29.

The Rockets obviously could have used his 21.1 points and 5.8 assists per game, but it was Paul’s defensive presence that they missed most.

The Rockets obviously could have used his 21.1 points and 5.8 assists per game, but it was Paul’s defensive presence that they missed most. Without CP3 in the line-up, the Warriors shot 49.4% from the floor and 42.1% from beyond the arc. Golden State’s starting backcourt of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson was especially explosive, combining for 64 points on 25-46 shooting. Surely Paul could have slowed down one – or both – players down as he had done so successfully for much of the series.

Paul’s absence was most obvious in the fourth quarter as the Rockets didn’t have anyone to control the tempo and grind out possessions. Houston scored just nine points in the final frame and watched feebly as the game slipped through their fingertips.

Paul isn’t the only player whose status is uncertain tonight. The Warriors could also be without Andre Iguodala for their third straight game as he recovers from a left lateral leg contusion. Iggy may not be quite as impactful as Paul, but he’s a savvy veteran who binds together all of Golden State’s best line-ups thanks to his unselfishness, vision, and athleticism. The Warriors are a vastly better team on both ends of the court when he’s available.

We should find out soon if Paul and Iguodala are available for the most important game of their respective teams’ seasons.

Warriors vs Rockets Team Playoff Stats

OFFENSE

Warriors
VS
Rockets
110.1 Offensive Rating 107.2
109.6 Points 105.8
25.7 Assists 18.9
47.1 Field-Goal Percentage 43.8
34.7 Three-Point Percentage 35.0
+8.8 Plus/Minus +2.5

DEFENSE

Warriors
VS
Rockets
99.9 Defensive Rating 105.8
100.8 Points 103.3
42.8 Field-Goal Percentage 46.4
33.1 Three-Point Percentage 37.9
44.4 Points In The Paint 47.0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLEmDvDfiE0

Warriors vs Rockets Head-to-Head Results

Date Location Score Winner
May 26 (Game 6 WCF) GS 115-86 GS
May 24 (Game 5 WCF) HOU 98-94 HOU
May 22 (Game 4 WCF) GS 95-92 HOU
May 20 (Game 3 WCF) GS 126-85 GS
May 16 (Game 2 WCF) HOU 127-105 HOU
May 14 (Game 1 WCF) HOU 119-106 GS

Notable Injuries and Absences

WARRIORS ROCKETS
Andre Iguodala (leg contusion): QUESTIONABLE Chris Paul (hamstring): GAME TIME DECISION

 Game 7 Pick: Warriors

This game really comes down to the uncertain health status of Chris Paul. The nine-time All-Star averaged 23.5 points in each of Houston’s last two wins and was the best player on the court for long stretches of the game. His defensive intensity set the tone for the Rockets and his clutch shot making repeatedly kept them in the game.

Houston fans would clearly love to see Paul make a miraculous recovery, but unfortunately no amount of rehab or medical treatment can get him back to 100% in such a limited amount of time. Most players typically need five-to-ten days to recover from an injury of this nature, especially when they’ve had as many hamstring pulls and strains as Paul. If he comes back (and that’s a Nene-sized if), it’s unlikely he’ll be able to do more than set up teammates and pull up for deep threes.

That’s a big problem, especially when you’re facing the Warriors. Curry and Thompson reminded us all in Game 6 just how dangerous they can be when given a sliver of daylight. They’ll exploit Paul limitations (or absence) and run circles around the Rockets’ reserves.

Golden State has already benefited this year from the absence of Kawhi Leonard in Round 1 and DeMarcus Cousins in Round 2, and they’ll benefit yet again from the potential absence of Paul tonight.

Golden State has already benefited this year from the absence of Kawhi Leonard in Round 1 and DeMarcus Cousins in Round 2 and they’ll benefit yet again from the potential absence of Paul tonight.

This isn’t the way the Rockets’ magical 65-win season was supposed to end, but the Warriors aren’t about to shed any tears over their misfortune. Take Golden State tonight to win and cover the 6-point spread available.

Warriors vs Rockets Team Trends

WARRIORS ROCKETS
Golden State is 34-16 SU on the road Houston is 41-9 SU at home
Golden State is 67-22 SU as a favorite Houston is 3-7 SU as an underdog
Golden State is 46-22 SU after a win Houston is 15-6 SU after a loss
Golden State is 41-56-1 ATS this season (42.3%) Houston is 50-47-1 ATS this season (51.5%)
Golden State is 21-27 ATS on the road Houston is 22-27-1 ATS at home

See the latest odds for every game during the 2018 NBA Playoffs.

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