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Zion Williamson +400 to Win ROY After First Week of Play; Ja Morant Still -300 Favorite

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NBA Basketball

Updated Mar 31, 2020 · 10:06 AM PDT

Zion Williamson on the bench
NEW ORLEANS, LA - JANUARY 26: New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson (1) sits on a the bench on a time out during a NBA game between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Boston Celtics ON January 26, 2020, at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA. (Photo by Stephen Lew/Icon Sportswire)
  • One week into his return from injury and Zion Williamson of the New Orleans Pelicans has dropped from +800 to +400 in the NBA Rookie of the Year odds
  • Ja Morant of the Memphis Grizzlies is still the -300 favorite
  • Kendrick Nunn of the Miami Heat is the third betting choice at +700

Ja Morant or Zion Williamson?

These two basketball phenoms went 1-2 in the 2019 NBA Draft, and they are also running 1-2 in the NBA Rookie of the Year odds. But for the first time all season long, it’s actually a race worth watching.

One week since making his NBA debut following a two-month absence due to knee surgery, Williamson is absolutely crushing it. But Morant of the Memphis Grizzlies has been doing that all season long.

Will Zion be able to make up the lost ground? If Week 1 of this pursuit is any indication, he most certainly can.

In the span of seven days, Williamson’s average odds across the leading sportsbooks have dipped from +800 to +400.

2019-20 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds

Player (Team) Odds
Ja Morant (Grizzlies) -300
Zion Williamson (Pelicans) +400
Kendrick Nunn (Heat) +700
Eric Paschall (Warriors) +1200
Michael Porter Jr (Nuggets) +1200
Matisse Thybulle (76ers) +3300

Odds taken Jan. 28.

Morant remains the odds-on favorite in the NBA ROY odds at -300.

Williamson Wowing Them

When the 6-foot-6, 285-pound Williamson is in full flight, it’s probably best to get out of the way.

Three games into his NBA career, all of them starts, he’s averaging 19.3 points per game. That’s third on the team, behind forward Brandon Ingram (25 PPG) and guard Jrue Holiday (19.8 PPG).

He recorded a double-double – 21 points and 11 rebounds – in a 123-108 victory over the Boston Celtics.

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The Pelicans have carefully monitored Zion’s minutes. He’s barely played more than 22 minutes in a game, and usually in short bursts.

Williamson insists he’s not feeling any issues from the knee injury that put him on the shelf for the first two months of the season. It’s just a matter of building up his conditioning to allow him to play for longer stretches of games.

Morant No Slouch

It’s not as if Morant is just going to stop balling and hand the mantle to Zion. He scorched the Phoenix Suns for 23 points in the Grizzlies’ 114-109 victory.

Morant is proving to be a clutch performer. He scored 14 points in the the fourth quarter of the win over Phoenix and is sixth in the NBA in fourth-quarter scoring, averaging 7.9 PPG.

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But already, Zion (9.0, second overall) has jumped ahead of him in this clutch-scoring category.

Morant’s averages this season are 17.9 PPG and an impressive 7.1 assists per game. The latter number is 12th in the NBA and leads all rookies.

Playoff Race Factoring In?

The Grizzlies (22-24) currently hold down the eighth and final NBA Western Conference playoff position. New Orleans (18-29) is 12th overall, and 1-2 since Zion returned to the lineup.

Considering that Memphis was 33-49 last season, finishing 15 games out of a playoff spot, if the Grizzlies were to earn a postseason berth, that has to play into Morant’s favor in the eyes of the ROY voters.

On the other hand, if Zion keeps up his current pace, New Orleans gets on a roll and gets solidly into the postseason reckoning, the difference in the Pelicans with and without Williamson must also be taken into consideration.

It’s One or the Other

Nunn is enjoying a fine season for the Heat, averaging 16.2 PPG. But he’s not going to be a factor in this battle. The NBA ROY is a match race between Ja and Zion.

Morant has laid a solid base of high-end performance in the two months that Williamson was idled. There’s no question Zion has got work to do.

What also must be remembered is that as outstanding a player as Morant obviously is, Zion was still the clear #1 overall choice on draft day. Morant is a star but Zion is a generational performer.

Williamson is already leading NBA rookies in points per game (19.3) and rebounds per game (8.0). If he maintains that pace for the rest of the season, the NBA ROY award is his.

Pick: Zion Williamson (+400).

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