Illinois vs Duke Picks and Odds
- #10 Duke is a 3.5-point home favorite versus #6 Illinois on Tuesday, December 8th, (9:30 pm EST)
- Both teams are winless versus top-25 opposition this season
- See below for analysis, odds and a betting prediction
A pair of top-10 teams clash at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Tuesday (Dec. 8, 9:30 pm EST) as #10 Duke hosts #6 Illinois. Both programs are still looking for their first resume padding victory of the season, and it’s the Blue Devils who have opened up as a short favorite.
#6 Illinois vs #10 Duke Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois Fighting Illini | +3.5 (-110) | OFF | Over 147.5 (-110) |
| Duke Blue Devils | -3.5 (-110) | OFF | Under 147.5 (-110) |
Odds taken Dec. 7th.
Duke is favored by 3.5-points in a game that features a total of 147.5. The Blue Devils are 0-2 ATS this season, while the Fighting Illini are 1-2 versus the number.
Mike Krzyzewski’s squad has a pair of double-digit victories under their belts against weak competition, but struggled against their only real test thus far.
Young and Unproven
Last week, Duke was beaten outright as 4-point favorites by #4 Michigan State. The Blue Devils shot just 32% from the field, and 21.7% from behind the arc, en route to a six-point defeat. They allowed five Spartans to reach double-figures, and were out-rebounded by a hungrier Michigan State team.
🚨 No. 8 Michigan State takes down No. 6 Duke 🚨
The Spartans get their first ever win at Duke. pic.twitter.com/j9qeqesohv
— ESPN (@espn) December 2, 2020
A result versus a veteran program like that shouldn’t come as a huge surprise given the inexperience of this Duke roster. The Blue Devils feature three Freshmen in the starting rotation and another three off the bench. They’re led offensively by Sophomore Matthew Hurt, who averages 19 points and 9 boards a game, and is fresh off back-to-back 20-point outings.
Duke's Jaemyn Brakefield, Matthew Hurt combined to shoot 10-12 from three last night.
Hurt looks good this year, playing with more confidence. Brakefield, appealing mix of wing size, shotmaking, scoring fluidity. pic.twitter.com/FAA4NyEWny
— Jonathan Wasserman (@NBADraftWass) December 5, 2020
Just two other Duke players average double-digit points, and the shooting woes from a season ago have not gone away. They rank 125th in the nation in field goal percentage, 94th from beyond the arc, and 167th from the charity stripe.
All Aboard the Ayo Train
Illinois meanwhile, is fresh off its first loss of the season, a 13-point defeat at the hands of #2 Baylor. That game was preceded by three straight victories, two of which were by 59 and 62 points. Before we rush out to praise them however, it should be noted that their opponents for those outings were ranked 356th and 294th by KenPom’s efficiency metrics. They also have a two-point win over Ohio in a game they were favored by 15.5.
After struggling in the first half, Ayo Dosunmu bounced back to score 15 of his 18 total points in the second half, but still shot just 6-for-18 from the field. The Baylor defense was on him from the jump:
"Ayo better get used to that, Ayo's going to see that all year long" pic.twitter.com/jpXI8NGDQr
— Bret Beherns (@WCIA3Bret) December 3, 2020
The Fighting Illini are led by by Ayo Dosunmu, who’s averaging 24 points, 7 boards and 6 assists per game. The Junior had an off night versus the Bears, but still ranks top-15 in the nation in scoring, and is a projected first round pick in next year’s NBA Draft.
Illinois features three other players who average double-digit points, and rank 23rd in the country in scoring, 16th in field goal percentage, and 13th from beyond the arc.
The Verdict
Despite Duke’s early season shooting struggles, they’re still a stronger team than Illinois according to advanced efficiency metrics. They rank 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency and seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency, while the Fighting Illini rank 16th and 37th in those two categories.
Yes, their two wins are over Coppin State and Bellarmine, but Illinois hasn’t beaten anyone either.
24 hours away from another Top 10 matchup at the crib #ACCB1G pic.twitter.com/uWAVFy36P9
— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) December 8, 2020
They got their first taste of real competition versus the Spartans last week, and although they came up short, I like them to rebound against another quality Big 10 opponent.
Pick: Duke -3.5 (-110)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
