Alabama vs North Carolina Predictions, Picks & Player Props for the Sweet 16

• Alabama meets North Carolina in the 2024 Sweet 16 on Thursday, March 28
• Both teams are 2-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament
• See the Alabama vs North Carolina picks, player props, and predictions

It’s SEC vs ACC in the West Region Sweet 16 on Thursday as the #4 Alabama Crimson Tide ( 19-15 ATS) meet the #1 North Carolina Tar Heels ( 21-15 ATS) at crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles at 6:50 pm PT (9:50 pm ET).

Alabama had a scare against Grand Canyon in the round of 32, but both Bama and UNC wound up covering their first and second-round matchups. Thursday’s Alabama vs UNC odds list the Tar Heels as a 4.5-point favorite.

Alabama vs North Carolina Odds

The moneyline odds set UNC as a -190 favorite to advance to the Elite Eight with Alabama a +160 underdog in Thursday’s college basketball odds. The total of 173.5 is 19 points higher than any of the other Sweet 16 games. (Gonzaga/Purdue has the second-highest at 154.5.)

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Odds as of March 27 at ESPN Bet North Carolina.

The winner will advance to face either #2 Arizona or #6 Clemson in the Elite Eight section of the March Madness bracket.

The Tar Heels remain the second-favorite to win the West Region at +170 in the Final Four odds. Alabama is third of the four remaining teams at +470. The #2 Arizona Wildcats, who have been the chalk since Selection Sunday, are the +120 favorites to reach the Final Four heading into their Sweet 16 matchup with #6 Clemson.

Tar Heels Dominating on Offense and Defense

North Carolina has used two solid all-around efforts to reach the Sweet 16. After running over #16 Wager (90-62) in the first round, the Tar Heels stormed back from an early 26-14 deficit to rout #9 Michigan State (85-69).

Despite playing at the 41st-fastest tempo in the nation, UNC has now held for of its last five opponents under 70 points, while scoring at least 80 in five of its past seven.

North Carolina heads into the Sweet 16 rated ninth overall at KenPom (sixth on defense) and 11th at Haslametrics. In addition to going 10-1 straight up in their last 11 games, the Heels are also 7-4 against the number in that span. At 19-15 for the season, UNC has a 55.9% cover rate.

Hubert Davis’ two senior leaders have both been at their best in the NCAA Tournament. Leading scorer RJ Davis (21.3 PPG, 3.4 APG) is averaging 21 points through the first two rounds, while Armando Bacot (14.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG) is averaging 19 points and 11 rebounds. Both were significant contributors on the UNC team that lost the 2022 national championship game to Kansas, combining for 29.8 PPG that season.

Alabama Gets by Grand Canyon Despite Cold Shooting

In the round of 32 against #12 Grand Canyon, the Tide did something I highly doubted they would in this tournament: win a game when they weren’t lighting it up from three. While Bama wound up covering the 5.5-point spread in a 72-61 win, the game was much closer than the final score suggests.

Grand Canyon held a 58-55 lead with six minutes to play before the Tide ended the game on a 17-3 run.

As he does most nights, Mark Sears (21.5 PPG, 4.2 APG) led Alabama with 26 points and was a respectable 8-of-18 from the field. But as a team, the Tide shot a woeful 24-of-56 from the floor (36.9%) and just 8-of-31 from beyond the arc (25.8%), all well below their season averages. A +9 differential on the glass helped overcome the ice-cold shooting.

Alabama remains a top-20 team at KenPom entirely due to its shooting. The Tide are ninth in the nation in two-point percentage (57.4%) and 31st out of all 362 DI teams in three-point percentage (36.7%). Despite the off night on Sunday, Alabama’s offense remains fourth in adjusted efficiency. It’s defense, however, is still outside the top 100 (101st).

Alabama vs UNC Player Props

College basketball player props from DraftKings on March 27.

Davis has the highest point total of the night in the Alabama/UNC player props, sitting at 22.5 O/U, which is one point higher than Sears (21.5). Bacot’s rebound total of 11.5 is three higher than any other player on the board. No one on the Tide is over 6.5.

Alabama vs North Carolina Prediction

The Tide were lucky to be facing an undersized Grand Canyon on a night when their shots weren’t falling. The Tide were able to scoop up 20 offensive rebounds on 41 missed field goals.

That is not something that will repeat against UNC. The Tar Heels are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation – at both ends of the court. North Carolina sits 74th in offensive-rebound percentage (32.6%) and sixth on defense (76.8%). UNC’s defense is also 15th in DI in effective field-goal percentage, holding opponents to a 46.5 EFG%.

On nights when Bama is knocking down threes, they are obviously a hard team to beat. They play at a breakneck pace (eighth-fastest tempo) and can open up double-digit gaps in minutes. But few teams manage to score in bunches against the large, long, tenacious UNC defense.

BAMA vs UNC pick: North Carolina -4.5 (-110)