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Auburn vs Baylor Odds, Spread, Picks & Predictions (Nov. 7)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Nov 7, 2023 · 9:26 AM PST

Auburn Tigers forward Johni Broome celebrating a bucket
Auburn Tigers forward Johni Broome (4) celebrates after a score as Auburn Tigers take on Ole Miss Rebels at Neville Arena in Auburn, Ala., on Wednesday, Feb. 22, 2023. Auburn Tigers defeated Ole Miss Rebels 78-74.
  • Auburn and #20 Baylor open their seasons in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, on Tuesday, Nov. 7
  • The Bears are 2.5-point neutral-court favorites over the Tigers
  • See the full slate of Auburn vs Baylor odds and picks for Tuesday’s season-opener for both teams

For the first time since January 2021, the #20 Baylor Bears (23-11 SU, 17-16-1 ATS last season) and Auburn Tigers (21-13 SU, 16-18-0 ATS) will square off in a college basketball game. Baylor and Auburn open their seasons against each other at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, SD, on Tuesday, Nov. 7. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 pm ET (8:00 pm local time).

Despite a massive amount of roster turnover, oddsmakers give Scott Drew’s Bears the edge.

Auburn Tigers vs Baylor Bears Odds

Team Point Spread Moneyline Total
Auburn Tigers +2.5 (-105) +115 O 143.5 (-110)
Baylor Bears -2.5 (-115) -140 U 143.5  (-110)

Baylor opened as a 1.5-point favorite last night, but the Baylor vs Auburn point spread has shifted to 2.5 at some sportsbooks on Tuesday. The Bears are also -140 on the moneyline to win straight up. The total is sitting at 143.5, which is trending down from the 144.0 number it opened at yesterday.

ESPN, which is set to debut its own sportsbook (ESPN Bet) next week, will carry the broadcast.

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Neither Baylor nor Auburn is among the top-ten favorites in the March Madness champion odds but both find themselves in the next tier of contenders: the Bears are currently +3833 on average to win their second national title in the last four years, while Auburn is +5500 to win its first ever. Coach Bruce Pearl led Auburn to its first Final Four appearance in 2019 and his team is a +1250 bet to get back to the national semifinals in the 2024 Final Four odds, just behind Baylor at +1150.

Both teams bowed out in the second round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament; after blowing out #14 UC Santa Barbara (74-56) in the first round, Baylor lost to #6 Creighton (85-76) as a #3 seed. Auburn earned a #9 seed and bowed out to #1 Houston (81-64) after getting past Iowa (83-75) in round one.

Analytics Agree Baylor Is the Better Team

While the ratings differ quite drastically, the three most-reputable college basketball analytics sites agree that Baylor heads into the 2023-24 season as the stronger side: Baylor rates 7th at KenPom, 13th at Haslametrics, and 24th at Torvik.  Auburn is 15th, 21st, and 25th, respectively.

Baylor also finished last season well ahead of Auburn per all three metrics: 16th at KenPom,  17th at Haslam, and 17th at Torvik. Auburn was 32nd,  24th, and 21st, respectively. But don’t put too much credence into last year’s ratings, especially for the Bears, because the 2022-23 team bears (no put intended) little resemblance to the 2023-24 squad.

Baylor Lineup Full of New Faces

Both teams are dealing with significant turnover, but Baylor more so. All three of the Bears’ leading scorers departed: senior Adam Flagler (15.6 PPG) graduated, freshman phenom Keyonte George (15.3 PPG) went to the NBA, and junior guard LJ Cryer (15.0 PPG) transferred to Houston. (George is an outside contender in the NBA Rookie of the Year odds during this first season with the Utah Jazz.)

Attempting to pick up the ample slack left behind will be fifth-year senior guard RayJ Dennis, a transfer from Toledo, who averaged 19.5 PPG last year with the Rockets.  Dennis will be complemented by senior forward Jalen Bridges (10.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG) and junior guard Jayden Nunn (9.3 PPG, 1.5 APG), a VCU transfer. Baylor also welcomes freshmen Ja’Kobe Walter, a two-guard ranked eighth in the nation by ESPN, and point guard Miro Little (39th).

YouTube video

Auburn returns leading scorer and rebounder Johni Broom (14.2 PPG, 82, RPG) and third-leading scorer Jaylin Williams (11.2 PPG, 4.7 RPG), but saw second-leading scorer Wendell Green Jr (13.7 PPG) go pro after his junior season. The Tigers only have one top-100 freshman coming in, point guard Aden Holloway (17th), who will take over the reigns at the one from Green.

Broom is seen as a longshot in the Wooden Award odds, opening at +10000 on average. But those are the shortest odds to win the most-prestigious national player of the year award of anyone in this game.

Auburn vs Baylor Prediction

There is no doubt that Baylor has a higher ceiling this season. The Bears are more talented, especially in the backcourt, and it’s those player-efficiency ratings that have Baylor rated higher at KenPom etcetera.

But Baylor is also dealing with a lot more roster turnover than Auburn, and that’s likely to put them behind the eightball early on.  Bettors can wager on the Auburn first-half moneyline at +110 on the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

Auburn vs Baylor pick: Auburn first-half moneyline (+110)

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