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Baylor vs Michigan State Odds and Picks (Nov. 26) [Battle 4 Atlantis Title Game at 11:00 am ET]

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in College Basketball

Updated Nov 26, 2021 · 6:02 AM PST

Baylor guard James Akinjo
Baylor guard James Akinjo (11) and guard LJ Cryer (4) celebrate a basket in the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Central Arkansas in Waco, Texas, Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
  • The Baylor Bears are 5.5-point favorites over the Michigan State Spartans in their NCAA men’s basketball game slated for Friday, November 26
  • It’s the championship game of the Beach bracket at the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament in the Bahamas
  • This is the second meeting between the two schools and both games have taken place in this tournament

If the Baylor Bears are playing the Michigan State Spartans, then it must be the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament. Well, as a matter of fact they are, and yes indeed it is.

The Bears and Spartans will clash in Friday’s championship game of the Beach bracket in the eight-team tournament that’s held every November in the Bahamas. In 2016, Baylor beat Michigan State 73-58 in the semifinals en route to winning the title in this event that year.

It’s the Bears who are expected to win the title again this year. The defending national champion Bears are 5.5-point favorites over the Spartans. Baylor is 6-0 against the spread this season, while Michigan State is 5-1.

Baylor vs Michigan State Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Baylor Bears -225 -5.5 (-110) O 139.5 (-110)
Michigan State Spartans +188 -5.5 (-110) U 139.5 (-110)

Odds as of November 26th at FanDuel.

Tipoff of this game is set for 11am ET at Imperial Arena on Paradise Island in The Bahamas. ESPN2 is carrying the broadcast.

Baylor Bears Betting Trends

The Bears are embracing the team concept when it comes to sharing the basketball. Baylor leads the NCAA in apples, with 20.3 assists per game. They are 40th in the nation in scoring offense (83 points per game), 67th overall in rebounding (37.2 rebounds per game) and 17th in offensive rebounding percentage (38.7%).

Individually, sophomore guard LJ Cryer is pacing the offense with 15.8 points per game. Freshman guard Kendall Brown is shooting 70% from the field, averaging 14 points and 4.2 rebounds per game.

Defensively, the Bears rank #18 in the nation. They’re allowing 56.5 points per game. KenPom rates Baylor #6 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Michigan State Spartans Betting Trends

The Spartans rate #147 in the nation in scoring offense, hitting for 74.5 points per game. Michigan State is #26 in rebounding (39.5 rpg). Sparty is a solid defensive squad. Michigan State ranks 58th in scoring defense. The Spartans are allowing 60.8 points per game.

Senior forward Gabe Brown is pacing the Michigan State attack with 13.5 points and 4.3 rebounds per game. He’s hitting on on 38.7 percent of his 3-pointers. Brown is 10 for 26 from long range over the past five games. Senior forward Marcus Bingham Jr is contributing all over the floor. He’s accounted for 11.5 points, 8.2 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game.

As good as Baylor is at giving a helping hand, Michigan State is proving to be better of late, even though the Spartans rank 102nd in the nation in assists per game (14.6). Over the past three games, Michigan State has delivered dimes on 54.5% of all field goals (42-of-77). Over that same span, Baylor has dished out assists on 53.5% of its field goals (46-of-86).

Bears vs Spartans Prediction

Defensively, the Bears are forcing turnovers on 28.8% of all opposition possessions. That ranks #10 in the nation and could be vital in this game. The Spartans are turning the ball over on 21% of their possessions, which ranks 268th in the NCAA.

Another key factor could be Michigan State’s poor free-throw shooting. The Spartans are hitting just 70.5% from the charity stripe. They can’t afford to be leaving those points on the floor against a team the caliber of Baylor.

The #6-ranked Bears (6-0) comfortably moved into the final of this event. They beat VCU 69-61 in the semifinals after toppling Arizona State 75-63 in the opening round.

Michigan State scored the game’s final nine points to rally for a 64-60 win over #22 Connecticut in the semifinals after blowing a 14-point lead. In the opening round, the Spartans trailed Loyola-Chicago by as many as 10 points, hitting the winning basket in a 63-61 victory with less than 15 seconds to play.

MSU won’t get those kinds of rallying opportunities against the Bears.

Pick: Baylor Bears -5.5 (-110).

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