Colorado State vs Utah State Odds and Picks
- Utah State has won five straight games as it prepares to meet Colorado State in a Mountain West semifinal at 11:59 pm ET on Friday
- The game is critical to the NCAA Tournament chances for both teams, now on the bubble in most projections
- Check the odds, analysis and betting predictions below
No. 2 seed Utah State (19-7, 15-4) will take a five-game winning streak into its Mountain West semifinal game against No. 3 seed Colorado at 11:59 pm ET on Friday. The two-time defending tournament champion Aggies are 4,5-point favorites.
Colorado State (18-5, 14-4) has won five of its last six games and is 4-2 ATS in that stretch. The Rams’ only loss since Jan. 29 was in the final game of the regular season, when Nevada’s Grant Sherfield hit a three-pointer at the buzzer in an 85-82 home victory.
Colorado State vs Utah State
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado State Rams | +164 | +4.5 (-110) | 138 (Ov-110) |
| Utah State Aggies | -196 | -4.5 (-110) | 138 (Un-110) |
Odds from FanDuel on March 12.
Utah State has won eight of its last 10 games, the only stumble coming in a two-game series sweep at Boise State in mid-February. The Aggies blew out host UNLV — the tournament is played at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas — in the second half for a 74-53 quarterfinal victory yesterday.
Balanced Colorado State placed four players in double figures in a 72-62 quarterfinal victory over Fresno State, which closed the deficit to one with seven minutes remaining, but the Rams recovered. The Rams and Aggies split the two-game regular-season series, played in Logan.
The Mountain West and the NCAA
If there is such thing as a “bubble conference”, the Mountain West is it.
The league struggles to place more than two teams in the NCAA Tournament every year — more than two have been invited only once since 2013. No. 19 San Diego State is a tournament lock this year, but that is as far as it goes.
Utah State and Colorado State enter their game listed among the last four teams into the NCAA Tournament field, according to ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi, who dropped fellow league contender Boise State out of the field after its upset loss to Nevada in the Thursday quarterfinals.
Colorado State has been firmly in CBS bracketologist Jerry Palm’s NCAA field for the last several weeks, but he lists Utah State and Boise State among the first four out. Colorado State is the only team in the league to have beaten all of the other top seeds.
The league wish every year is that there are few upsets in other conference tournaments. Victories by Seton Hall and Georgetown in the Big East quarterfinals Thursday were unwelcome, although the rest of the conference brackets have not presented many issues.
Playing Big
Utah State’s Neemias Queta and Colorado State’s Roddy are candidates for the conference player of the year and are in a comfort zone on the low block, but that is about where the comparisons end.
Queta, 7-foot and 245 pounds, is a paint player in the traditional sense. He scores down low, protects the rim and generally makes penetration difficult on his opponent. Queta had 18 points and 13 rebounds in the victory over UNLV and made 10 of 12 free throw attempts.
Queta is averaging 14.8 points and 10.0 rebounds per game, and he has seven straight double-doubles. He has gained steam down the stretch, averaging 21.3 points and 12.6 rebounds in his last seven. Queta equaled his season average with three blocked shots against UNLV, and he ranks fifth in NCAA Division I in that category.
Roddy, 6-5 and 252, is a less traditional inside player. He is strong enough to create space inside but also can spot the open man on the perimeter. He is averaging 16.3 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. He has double-doubles in three of his last four and four of his last six games.
The Rams are 10-3 since going to a smaller lineup, with Roddy playing the “four” and very occasionally the “five.” They had four players in double figures against Fresno State, a balance that has marked their recent streak.
Utah State Healthy Again
Aggies’ perimeter threat Brock Miller returned to the lineup against UNLV after missing two games and much of a third with a back injury.
Miller, a 6-5 guard who complements top scorers Queta and forward Justin Bean, had eight points in the victory over UNLV and has made 25-of-57 three-pointers, 44.9%.
Aggies sturdy freshman point guard Rollie Worster had 14 points, eight assists and six rebounds against the Rebels. The Aggies are 4-0 since Worster returned from a lower leg injury on Feb. 28 after going 1-2 in his absence. He is averaging 9.4 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists.
Ski SZN is winding down, but @rworster24 is still in FULL SEND mode. #AggiesAllTheWay pic.twitter.com/tNVV24sXxJ
— USU Men's Hoops (@USUBasketball) March 12, 2021
Virginia transfer guard Marco Anthony had his best game as an Aggie against UNLV with 15 points, 13 rebounds and five assists.
By the Numbers
Utah State has won six of the last seven games against Colorado State, and KenPom and the NCAA see a slight separation between the team.
The Aggies are ranked 39th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin 41st in the NCAA net rankings, and the Rams are 59th in KenPom and 48th in the NCAA net. Utah State is 7-0 in the Mountain West tournament under coach Craig Smith.
Utah State won by 19 and lost by eight in the two regular-season meetings, and both are playing well. The Aggies are 2-5 ATS in their last seven, making the points worth a look.
The pick: Colorado State +4.5 (-110)
Jack has covered college and professional sports for various Arizona media outlets since the 1980s and has written for the Associated Press, USA Today and Baseball America, among others. He staffed the 2015-17 World Series and has staffed four Super Bowls.
