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Colorado vs Marquette Picks & Predictions (March 24)

Zach Reger

by Zach Reger in College Basketball

Updated Mar 23, 2024 · 12:55 PM PDT

Mar 22, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Colorado Buffaloes guard KJ Simpson (2) reacts in the second half against the Florida Gators in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at Gainbridge FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
  • #10 Colorado plays #2 Marquette in the Round of 32 on Sunday
  • A team from the First Four has made the Round of 32 every year of its existence except 2019
  • Keep reading for Colorado vs Marquette picks and predictions

Thanks to Colorado’s thrilling 102-100 victory over Florida, the trend continues. A team from the First Four has now made the second round of the NCAA Tournament every year since the tournament expanded in 2011 except for 2019. The Buffaloes hit a game-winning shot as time expired to avoid going to overtime with #7 Florida in what was one of the most exciting games of the tournament so far.

Marquette got off to a slow start against Western Kentucky and was losing 43-36 at the break. The Golden Eagles came alive in the second half and pulled away. They outscored the Hilltoppers 51-26 in the second half, en route to an 87-69 victory.

The winner of this game will move on to the Sweet 16 in the South region of the March Madness bracket.

Colorado vs Marquette Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Colorado Buffaloes +3.5 (-110) +140 Over 147.5 (-110)
Marquette Golden Eagles -3.5 (-110) -170 Under 147.5 (-110)

Sunday’s college basketball odds list Marquette as a 3.5-point favorite over 10-seed Colorado. The spread opened at Colorado +4, so the odds have shifted down to +3.5.

Still, with -170 odds on the moneyline, Marquette an implied win probability of 62.96%. The O/U in this matchup opened at 146.5 and has been bet up to 147.5.

Marquette has the second-best odds to win the South region at +360, while Colorado’s Final Four odds are +1000.

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Odds as of March 23 at Fanatics. Claim the Fanatics Sportsbook promo code to bet on Colorado vs Marquette on Sunday. 

The Buffs are Hot

Colorado has now won ten of their last eleven games with the only loss being to Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship game. They have also covered the spread in six of their last seven. Despite some high-scoring performances during that stretch, the over has only hit just twice in Colorado’s last six games. The Buffaloes went 19-17 against the spread this year overall.

The Buffaloes are a fun team to watch play, especially of late. Fresh off a 102-point outing, every starter scored double digits. They are led by KJ Simpson who scored 23 and the game winner against Florida in the Round of 64. Simpson averages just under 20 points per game and also leads the team in assists and steals.

They have scorers all over the court, so defenses can’t just focus on Simpson. Forward Tristan De Silva is dynamic and put up 17 against Florida. De Silva is averaging 16 points per game this season. Then down low, they have Eddie Lampkin Jr. who is fresh off a 21-point, 6-rebound outing.

Colorado is ranked 21st in Kempom and has the talent to play with just about any team, but they struggled with consistency this year. It seems like they turned a corner at the right time.

A Tale of Two Halves for Marquette

Marquette looked like two completely different teams in their first-round matchup. They were on upset watch as they were losing by seven points at the half.  For a while, it looked like we were going to see a 15-seed take down a 2-seed for the fourth consecutive year, but the Golden Eagles turned it around in the second half. They outscored Western Kentucky by 25 to advance to the Round of 32.

Tyler Kolek’s return to the Marquette lineup was huge for that turnaround. Kolek missed the entirety of the Big East Tournament but came back for the NCAA Tournament. Kolek played 38 minutes against Western Kentucky and scored 18 points. He also added 11 assists and six rebounds.

Marquette went 21-13 against the spread this year and has covered the spread in four of their last five games. The only game they did not cover during that stretch was against UConn in the Big East Championship.

The Golden Eagles score 78.5 points per game and are ranked 20th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Just as it took some time for Marquette’s offense to adjust to Kolek’s absence, they also needed some time to acclimate him back into the lineup. Once that happened, the entire offense flipped a switch.

Kam Jones led the way with 28 points in the first round, and Stevie Mitchell put up 16. If Marquette plays like they did in the second half of their last game, they will be difficult to beat in this tournament.

Colorado vs Marquette Prediction

This second-round matchup should be an exciting one. Both teams are clicking right now and are scoring the basketball at an efficient rate. There will be star power all over the court on Sunday, so this one should come down to the wire. That is why I am taking the underdog with the points.

Marquette has a talented defense, but they are vulnerable guarding the three pointer and Lampkin Jr. presents a threat to the inside. Colorado does not shoot a lot of threes, but when they do, they shoot them well. The Buffaloes shoot just under 40% from beyond the arc.

Even though they just gave up 100 points to Florida, Colorado’s defense has been pesky enough to annoy opposing shooters. The Buffaloes will stay hot and keep this game close enough to cover the spread.

Pick: Colorado +3.5 (-110)

 

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