CSU Bakersfield vs UCLA Odds and Spread (Nov. 9)

• UCLA begins its season late Tuesday night on the Pac-12 network
• The Bruins will be looking to start their season off with a bang against in-state opponent CSU Bakersfield
• Read below for analysis and a pick

The #2 UCLA Bruins begin their 2021-22 season at 11:00 pm ET on Tuesday, Nov. 9th, when they host CSU Bakersfield at Pauley Pavilion. The game will be televised on the Pac-12 network.

The home team enters as a massive 20-point favorite.

CSU Bakersfield vs UCLA Odds

The Bruins are coming off an improbable NCAA Tournament run that culminated in a thrilling Final Four loss to then undefeated Gonzaga. They are the prohibitive favorites to win the Pac-12 (+105) and a pick for many to reach a second consecutive Final Four (+380).

JOHNNY JUZANG. MONEY. (via @CBSSports) pic.twitter.com/rrDl4Wtsxl

— SLAM University (@slam_university) April 4, 2021

CSU Bakersfield is coming off its fifth winning season of the decade and its first in the Big West conference. The Roadrunners went 15-11 including dropping four of their last five.

They were competitive in most games but could never truly get the consistency that could lead them to a Big West Tournament run. They will be looking to parlay their 15-win season into something bigger, but it may be tough after five key losses.

Is UCLA a Legitimate Contender?

That is the key question and one that I have spent some of the off-season mulling over. At this point, it’s become almost as trendy to completely fade the Bruins as it is to back them to reach another Final Four.

We all know the story from last season. UCLA was an overtime away from being out in the First Four to Michigan State. If that happens, then virtually the entire offseason conversation about them is different. They aren’t preseason top-five and it’s debatable if they are a preseason top-25 team.

Instead, they got hot. They got really hot. It was a streak that included incredible mid-range shooting, poor opponent free-throw shooting, and just overall luck in some respects. According to ShotQuality.com, the average probability of each win that led them to the Final Four was less than a coin flip — 46%.

https://twitter.com/ChrisDHatfield/status/1378684527845990403?s=20

So now the question becomes, how much is repeatable? Did the Bruins simply figure it out or are they due for a season of big regression?

I think the answer lies somewhere in the middle. I will not be picking UCLA to return to the Final Four.  Last season’s run included junior Johnny Juzang averaging 25-plus points over a two-week span and turning from a good shooter to an otherworldly shooter, and that doesn’t seem sustainable.

But there’s zero doubt the Bruins have talent. And they’ve added to it.

But no matter how things go this season in LA, head coach Mick Cronin has fully arrived, and it appears UCLA’s return glory is more a question of “when” than “if”.

Tempo a Story on Tuesday

The Roadrunners come into 2021 having played the 13th-slowest tempo in the country last season, according to KenPom. There’s not much to suggest they will speed up this season. In fact, given that it was one of the most-efficient offenses they’ve had in a while, they may try to play even slower.

CSUB to Kick Off Season at No. 2 UCLA
⬇️📝https://t.co/eaHZb59bmW#TeamBelieve #RESET

— Bakersfield Men's Hoops (@CSUB_MBB) November 8, 2021

On the other side of the ball, UCLA played nearly as slow last season. For whatever reason, this is a key talking point of their post-season success that gets lost. They made their hay on essentially going as deep into the shot clock as possible then proceeding to hit incredibly tough shots. They finished just three spots “faster” ahead of their Tuesday counterparts in the tempo category at 16th-slowest.

Prediction

An overwhelming number of factors point to the under in this one.

The aforementioned tempo ratings are one of those factors, but not the only. The best attribute of the Roadrunner defense last season was its spot-up defense. They ranked second in spot-up defense in the Big West and in the top-40 percent of college basketball there.

To nobody’s surprise that was the most-used offense for the Bruins last season and I wouldn’t expect that to change much now. Beyond that, CSU got the majority of its offense via transition. Guess what? That’s where the Bruins thrived. They held opponents to less than .90 points per possession which was good enough for them to rank in the top 25 in transition defense.

I’ll happily back this one to stay under 135.5 and would bet it all the way to 133.

Pick: Under 135.5 (-105); Parlay of CSU Bakersfield +20/Under 135.5 (+272)