Florida vs Tennessee Picks and Odds
- The Tennessee Volunteers (16-7, 9-7 SEC) host the Florida Gators (13-7, 9-6 SEC) Sunday, March 7
- UT has had a week-plus layoff since its last game, while UF has won three of its last four
- Read below for odds, analysis, and our best bet for this matchup
The Tennessee Volunteers, who haven’t played since losing 77-72 last Saturday at Auburn, host the Florida Gators Sunday, March 7 in Knoxville. Tip is set for noon ET at Thompson-Boling Arena.
If not for a 72-70 victory by Missouri Wednesday that was sealed with under a second remaining, the Gators might be riding a four-game win streak into Knoxville. Meantime, UT has had a week to stew after its five-point loss to the Tigers in Alabama last Saturday.
Now, the Vols are small home favorites against the Gators in the final regular season finale.
Florida vs Tennessee Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | +4.5 (-110) | +168 | Ov 136.5 (-110) |
| Tennessee | -4.5 (-110) | -200 | Un 136.5 (-110) |
Odds taken March 6 at FanDuel
Gone Gators
When you boil it down, Mike White’s team lost to the Tigers for two reasons: the Gators were unable to take care of the ball and defend the three.
Florida committed 15 turnovers in the first half. Mizzou scored 18 of its 36 first-half points off those turnovers — an early recipe for disaster. The Gators significantly tightened things up in the second half, committing only three more. But the damage was done.
Meanwhile, Missouri nearly doubled up UF from beyond the arc. The Tigers had nine three-pointers, while the Gators finished with five. The truly troubling development in the distance disparity: almost all nine that went in for Mizzou were pretty wide open.
Tennessee isn’t a particularly elite three-point shooting team. The Vols’ 34.6% shooting from downtown has them ranked sixth in the SEC and 121st in the country. But UT’s ability to force opponents into turning the ball over — their 22.8% defensive turnover percentage ranks them at No. 20 in all of college basketball — is not what Florida fans want to see coming off Wednesday’s debacle in the first 20 minutes.
The Gators can shoot — their 58.1% from the field against the Tigers nearly delivered a comeback win. But that’s not a sustainable percentage. White’s club needs to defend the three better and maintain possessions.
What Happened?
The SEC preseason favorite has had issues from an offensive standpoint all season and has a penchant for playing down to its opponent. Tennessee has lost two of its last three games, with those two defeats coming against teams with losing conference records. The latest disappointment was that five-point loss last Saturday to an Auburn team playing only for pride thanks to its self-imposed postseason ban.
So has the week-plus off been good for a UT squad once ranked as high as No. 6 in the AP poll this season? Head coach Rick Barnes says yes, especially from a physical standpoint.
Barnes, now in his sixth season on Rocky Top, said the time off has given some guys a chance to heal up, which is important heading into Sunday and the conference tournament, which is slated to begin Wednesday. But you have to imagine the break has been a positive from a mental perspective as well.
Two of the Vols’ top two scorers — Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson — are freshman. And when you rely on underclassmen for consistency, sometimes that can be a frustrating undertaking.
Look for Barnes to ask some of his upperclassmen, like Victor Bailey Jr., to take the pressure off his highly-touted youngsters Sunday.
Not Again!
UT suffered its most lopsided loss of the season to UF back on Jan. 19 in a 75-49 defeat in Gainesville.
Like Florida against Missouri last Wednesday, Tennessee had 18 turnovers in the 26-point disaster. Barnes said his team was “very careless with the ball” a month-and-a-half ago. Tennessee was also an abysmal 29.3% from the field and only 48% (12-of-25) from the free-throw line. Basically, the Vols couldn’t play any worse.
As for Sunday’s affair, Florida’s inability to take care of the rock — countered by Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers — bodes well for the home team. Plus, the revenge factor and the simple motivating factor of playing up to its ability has me leaning toward UT in this spot. Yes, the Vols are only 6-6 after opening the season 10-1. But I expect them to right the ship heading into the postseason.
The pick: Tennessee -4 (-116)
Blair Johnson is a veteran journalist and seasoned sports content creator. He has been writing and producing content as long as he can remember, with such familiar names as CNN, NFL Media and Yahoo. Blair currently lives and works in the greater Los Angeles area.
