Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Prediction, Odds & Player Props (Saturday, Mar. 2)

• We’ve made our Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s prediction for Saturday night
• Oddsmakers are forecasting a tight game between two Western rivals
• Read below for Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s prediction, odds and player props

The biggest rivalry in the West Coast Conference takes center stage on Saturday night as the No. 23 Gonzaga Bulldogs battle the No. 17 Saint Mary’s Gaels. Tip-off is set for 10 PM ET from the University Credit Union Pavilion in Moraga, California. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.

The Gaels come into this matchup as 3-point favorites with the total set at 141 at most sportsbooks. Saint Mary’s has already clinched the WCC regular season title outright for the first time since 2011-12. The Zags sit 13-2 in WCC play and are looking to avoid the regular season sweep after dropping the first meeting.

Let’s dive into our Gongzaga vs St. Mary’s prediction, as we breakdown the odds and best player props for Saturday night college basketball.

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Odds

In the Saturday college basketball odds, Saint Mary’s is a -150 favorite on the moneyline, giving them 60% implied probability to defeat Gonzaga.

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Zags Betting Analysis

Gonzaga bounced back from their loss to the Gaels by ripping off seven straight wins to close the regular season. They went on the road Thursday and hammered San Francisco 86-68 led by 26 points from forward Graham Ike.

The Zags used a 33-8 run in the second half to pull away for a comfortable victory. Gonzaga sits 23-6 overall and 13-2 in WCC play heading into the finale.

Gonzaga boasts one of college basketball’s most explosive offenses, putting up over 86 PPG (5th nationally). They are led by forward Graham Ike, who is averaging 16.7 PPG and 7.2 RPG while shooting over 62% from the floor.

Junior Anton Watson chips in 14.6 PPG and 7.3 RPG while guards Nolan Hickman and Rasir Bolton add a combined 27 PPG. The Zags can light up the scoreboard but also battle on the glass, ranking 10th nationally in rebound rate.

Gaels Betting Analysis

Saint Mary’s is playing arguably their best basketball of the Bennett era, reeling off 16 straight wins including road victories over New Mexico and Gonzaga. They dominated Pepperdine in their last outing 83-57 behind 17 points and 11 assists from sophomore guard Augustas Marciulionis.

Six Gaels finished in double figures in a game they led wire-to-wire. Saint Mary’s is an impressive 13-3 at home this season.

Augustas Marciulionis making the tough shots look easy! He drains the circus shot, and gets hacked! #GaelsRise pic.twitter.com/ZOTU6hMGHM

— Saint Mary's Hoops (@saintmaryshoops) March 1, 2024

Saint Mary’s is powered by one of the most efficient offenses in the country, led by sophomore guards Aidan Mahaney (13.6 PPG) and Augustas Marciulionis (12.5 PPG, 5.1 APG). Junior forward Mitchell Saxen adds 11.5 PPG on 59% shooting while providing strong rebounding at over seven boards per contest.

The Gaels play at one of the slowest paces in the country and rely on stingy defense, allowing just 58.1 PPG (2nd nationally).

In terms of injuries, Saint Mary’s will be without starting forward Joshua Jefferson, who is out for the season with a knee injury. Jefferson was averaging 10.2 points and 6.5 rebounds per game before going down. His absence leaves a hole in the Gaels’ frontcourt.

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Player Props

In the college basketball player props for Gonzaga vs Saint Mary, Zags star forward Graham Ike is projected to have the biggest night. Ike boasts the highest point total over/under at 17.5, while also leading the way in expected rebounds (7.5).

Odds as of March 2nd, 2024 at Bet365 Sportsbook. Register with the Bet365 promo code to bet on NCAAB player props. NC bettors can pre-register at the bet365 app in North Carolina.

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Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Prediction

The Gaels took the first meeting 64-62 as 4.5-point underdogs, covering the number on a late 3-pointer. Saint Mary’s is an impressive 16-12 ATS this season including 6-1 ATS over their last seven contests. Gonzaga has struggled against the number at 13-15 ATS as oddsmakers typically overvalue them. The Zags have covered in just three of their last 10 games played in March.

The total has gone over in five of Gonzaga’s last six overall. However, Saint Mary’s games tend to play under at their slower pace. The under is 4-0 in the Gaels’ last 4 at home. When these teams met in Spokane, the game finished with just 126 total points, well below this posted total of 141.5.

With Jefferson sidelined for Saint Mary’s, I give Gonzaga the edge in this revenge spot to avoid the regular season sweep. However, the Gaels have proven extremely tough to beat at home.

In a rivalry game between top 25 teams, expect another close battle. I’ll take Gonzaga plus the points along with the under on the total in what should be another defensive struggle decided in the final minutes.

Saturday College Basketball Picks:

• Gonzaga +3 (-110)
• Under 141 Points (-110)