Houston vs BYU Odds, Player Props & Predictions (Jan. 23)

• Big 12 newcomers Houston and BYU tangle on Tuesday night in Provo, Utah
• Houston is the top-rated team at KenPom and Haslametrics, while BYU is in the top ten
• See the Houston vs BYU odds, player props, and predictions for Tuesday night’s game

Both the #4 Houston Cougars (16-2, 1-2 away, 9-8-1 ATS) and #21 BYU Cougars (14-4, 10-1 home, 12-6 ATS) are making strong statements in their inaugural season in the Big 12. On Tuesday night, Houston travels to the Marriott Center in Provo to square off with BYU at 9:00 pm ET.

Despite BYU owning a solid 10-1 record on their home court, Houston is listed as slight 2.5-point road favorite.

Houston vs BYU Odds

The Houston vs BYU moneyline odds show Houston as a -155 favorite and BYU a +125 home underdog. The over/under is sitting at 135.5 with -110 odds both ways.

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Houston (+1043) has risen all the way to second-favorite in the latest March Madness championship odds, trailing only Zach Edey’s Purdue (+821). While BYU is in the top ten at all major analytics sites, it only has the 18th-best odds to win the national championship (+4543).

Houston Shakes Off Losing Streak

Houston was dropped from the ranks of the unbeaten on Jan. 9 during a 57-53 loss at Iowa State, which was abruptly followed by a heartbreaking 68-67 setback at TCU which dropped the Cougars to 1-2 in Big 12 play.

Kelvin Sampson’s team responded with a pair of dominant home wins, routing Texas Tech 77-54 on Jan. 17 before dusting aside UCF 57-42 last Saturday in a dismal offensive performance from both teams.

The slow-paced Cougars (351st in tempo) are getting double-digit contributions from guards LJ Cryer (15.2 PPG), Emanuel Sharp (12.5 PPG), and Jamal Shead (11.1 PPG), while point guard Shead is dishing out 6.1 assists per game and big man J’Wan Roberts leads the team with 7.1 rebounds a night.

Rebounding is very much a group effort for Houston, though. Seven different players are averaging at least 3.5 rebounds per game, and as a team they site fifth out of 362 DI teams in offensive rebound percentage (39.9%).

Shorthanded BYU Falls to TTU

After racing out to a 12-1 start to the season, including a win over last year’s national runner-up San Diego State (22nd at KenPom), BYU has lost three of its past five and now sits a game under .500 in Big 12 play (2-3).

Last time out, sans big man Noah Waterman (10.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG) who was out with concussion-like symptoms, BYU fell 85-78 at Texas Tech (31st at KenPom), blowing a 48-32 halftime lead in the process.

The blown lead continued a trend from BYU’s two other recent losses; the Cougars led Cincinnati 31-24 at halftime before losing 71-60 on Jan. 6 (their only home loss of the season) and led Baylor 39-33 at the break during a 81-72 loss in Waco on Jan. 9.

Apart from falling apart in a few second halves, it’s hard to find much fault with this year’s BYU team. They sit 13th in offensive efficiency while shooting 36.8% from three (40th in the country) and 58.8% from two (ninth). They have the 28th-best offensive-rebound percentage (35.3%) while limiting opponents to just a 22.5% offensive-rebound percentage (eighth).

HOU vs BYU Player Props

Player props from the DraftKings app.  

Curiously, neither of BYU’s two leading scorers – Jaxson Robinson (13.9 PPG) and Trevin Knell (12.7 PPG) – are listed in the college basketball player props for HOU vs BYU. So the top point totals on the board belong to Houston’s Cryer (14.5) and Shead (13.5).

Houston vs BYU Prediction

This is a good matchup for BYU. Not only do they have a pronounced home-court advantage at altitude in Provo (which has an elevation even higher than Salt Lake City), they also counter what Houston does best: BYU is eighth in the country in defensive rebound percentage (77.5%).

At the same time, their propensity for blowing first-half leads is concerning, especially with Waterman’s status unclear. (He’s a big part of their rebounding efficacy.) So I feel better about their first-half moneyline, which is still listed at decent plus-money.

HOU vs BYU pick: BYU first-half moneyline (+114) – two units

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

• ATS: 13-12 (-0.21 units)
• Moneyline: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
• Player props: 1-2 (-1.13 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.