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Kentucky Continues to Climb NCAA Tournament Odds

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in College Basketball

Updated Apr 3, 2020 · 6:27 AM PDT

Kentucky coach John Calipari yelling
John Calipari appears to orchestrating another midseason turnaround at Kentucky, winning six in a row and three straight over teams ranked in KenPom's top 30. Photo by Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire.
  • Wildcats struggled early on after opening season as second favorite for national title
  • Recent rebound has boosted Wildcats’ projected March Madness seeding
  • Wildcats must overcome dismal road record during month of February

The Kentucky Wildcats will be aiming to equal their longest straight-up win streak of the season when they visit the Vanderbilt Commodores on Tuesday night as 9.5-point chalk.

The Wildcats return to action on the heels of last weekend’s 71-63 win over Kansas as 5.5-point favorites to extend their current SU run to six games. The victory has also fueled the squad’s steady climb back to respectability on the college basketball national championship odds board where they are now pegged at +1200.

2019 March Madness Championship Odds

Odds to Win 2019 College Basketball National Championship Odds
Duke +170
Michigan +750
Tennessee +750
Virginia +800
Gonzaga +1000
Kentucky +1200
Michigan State +1200
Kansas +1400

Wildcats Struggled After Opening Season Amid March Madness Favorites

Kentucky opened the campaign with high expectations, trailing only Duke as a +530 favorite in the March Madness futures.

The Wildcats also opened the season at No. 2 on the AP Top 25, and at No. 6 on the KenPom rankings.

The squad quickly tumbled in both the odds and national rankings after suffering outright losses as betting chalk to the Blue Devils, Seton Hall, and Alabama, and proved to be a massive disappointment to loyal sports bettors while covering just six times over their first 15 outings.

However, the Wildcats look to have turned the corner during their current six-game tear.

Kentucky has claimed victory by double-digit margins on three occasions, and have posted ATS wins in each of their past four, starting with a 69-49 rout of Georgia as 7.5-point chalk on January 15. They now sit at No. 7 in the national rankings.

Current Win Streak Marked by Decisive Victories over Highly Ranked Opponents

In addition, with their recent 82-80 upset of Auburn on the road and last weekend’s victory over Kansas, the Wildcats have now knocked off three straight opponents rated among the KenPom Top 25, and have reclaimed the No. 10 spot in the process.

Slow starts are nothing new for Kentucky.

The Wildcats plummeted to No. 36 at KenPom last season amid a dismal 3-6 SU midseason run before returning to No. 17 with a solid stretch run. The squad has experienced similar swings in the KenPom ratings in recent years, most notably in 2013-2014, when they tumbled from No. 5 to No. 25 before rebounding to mount a run to the Final Four.

Wildcats Currently Projected as No. 2 Seed at NCAA Tournament

Things get no easier for the Wildcats in their bid to duplicate those heroics. In addition to highly anticipated rematches with Mississippi State and Auburn, Kentucky also faces a pair of games against the SEC-leading Tennessee Volunteers (No. 1 in AP Poll, No 6 at KenPom), as well as home date with LSU (No. 19 in AP Poll, No. 23 at KenPom).

But even with a challenging schedule, Kentucky is currently projected by KenPom to finish the campaign with a 24-7 SU record, while ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi currently projects the Wildcats as a No. 2 seed at this year’s edition of March Madness.

Health, Improved Road Performances Key to Stretch Run Success

However, a number of factors will likely continue to influence the Wildcats’ national championship hopes. Kentucky has managed to remain relatively healthy since the season opened, and have received solid performances from veterans like senior Reid Travis and sophomore PJ Washington during its current surge.

But while the Wildcats have been a dominant team on home hardwood, claiming outright wins in 15 straight since February of last year, their play away from home remains a massive concern.

Wildcats have won just six of 12 February road contests since 2016

The Wildcats’ losses to Alabama and Seton Hall both came on the road. And while the team has enjoyed second-half rebounds in recent seasons, road wins in February have been rare over the past three years. The Wildcats are a meagre 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS in their past 12 road contests in the month of February, a trend they must reverse if they are to assure themselves of a favorable seeding at this year’s Big Dance.

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