Louisiana vs App State Odds and Picks (Dec. 30)

• Appalachian State is a 3.5-point favorite over Louisiana on Thursday (Dec. 30th) at 6:30 pm ET at the Holmes Convocation Center in Boone, North Carolina
• The Mountaineers have failed to cover in three straight outings
• Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

Thursday brings another jam packed college hoops slate for us to sweat, including the Sun Belt opener for both Louisiana and Appalachian State. The two programs will square off for the 12th time in their history, with each school looking to snap a two-game losing streak.

Louisiana vs Appalachian State Odds

Odds as of Dec. 28th at FanDuel.

The hometown Mountaineers opened as a 3.5-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 135.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 6:30 pm ET at the Holmes Convocation Center in Boone, North Carolina, with ESPN+ providing the broadcast coverage.

Appalachian State Mountaineers Betting Analysis

Each of Appalachian State’s past two losses have come against college basketball super powers. Last time out they fell 70-50 to North Carolina, while in their previous matchup they were blown out by #2 Duke 92-67.

Those were easily the toughest games the Mountaineers have had all season, as they haven’t faced another program ranked inside the top-80.

We’ve taken on some of the toughest competition in the country this season, ranking 3️⃣7️⃣th nationally in strength of schedule.#TakeTheStairs pic.twitter.com/7K0qoTsf8A

— App State Basketball (@AppStateMBB) December 23, 2021

Donovan Gregory led the way versus the Tar Heels with 18 points and 9 boards, while leading scorer Adrian Delph was the only other Appalachian State player to reach double-figures (10 points). The Mountaineers delivered an ugly shooting performance, making just 31.3% of their attempts, and 13.3% of their threes, but that’s not uncommon for this program.

Appalachian State ranks 305th in points per game, and 273rd in effective field goal percentage. They check in at number 313 in three-point efficiency, but that doesn’t stop them from launching 25.2 long range attempts per contest.

Versus UNC, they finished -14 in the rebounding department, while generating nine fewer assists. They allowed the Tar Heels to shoot 46.8% from the field, which is typical for their defense.

The Mountaineers rank 318th in opponent effective field goal percentage, while 272 schools force turnovers at a higher rate.

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns Betting Analysis

Louisiana is coming off a loss to a ranked opponent, falling 71-56 to #12 Houston. That game was their toughest test to date, with their only other top-30 opponent being Indiana earlier in the season.

The Ragin’ Cajuns last outing was cancelled due to a COVID outbreak in the Loyola New Orleans program, and Louisiana will be without head coach Bob Marlin on Thursday after he tested positive.

Statement on @RaginCajunsMBB head coach Bob Marlin.#GeauxCajuns ⚜️ pic.twitter.com/Vkp6n2t10J

— Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns® (@RaginCajuns) December 29, 2021

Marlin’s squad had a tough night offensively versus the Cougars in their matchup, shooting only 33.3% from the field. Of course that’s nothing new for Louisiana, as they rank 207th in points per game, and 318th in effective field goal percentage. Houston outrebounded them by 11, while the Ragin’ Cajuns turned the ball over 19 times.

Louisiana’s defense did its part holding Houston to 38.8% from the field, and 9.5% from three, but they couldn’t keep the Cougars off the offensive glass. Houston grabbed 21 offensive boards, leading to many second chance points.

Fought to the finish.#GeauxCajuns ⚜️ pic.twitter.com/427tjHpLvz

— Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns® Men's Basketball (@RaginCajunsMBB) December 15, 2021

The rebounding struggles are surprising given the Ragin’ Cajuns proficiency on the glass this season. They rank 26th in total rebounding, and have a major advantage in that category over Appalachian State. The Mountaineers rank 309th in total rebounding, and 230th in offensive rebound percentage.

Louisiana vs Appalachian State Pick

These two programs grade out incredibly close in KenPom’s overall efficiency metrics, and while they boast a similar quality of offense, Louisiana is ranked much higher defensively.

The Ragin’ Cajuns have also fared much better against the spread this season, covering in three of their past four outings.

SBC SZN 🔜#GeauxCajuns ⚜️ pic.twitter.com/Y1Ww95ZGOs

— Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns® Men's Basketball (@RaginCajunsMBB) December 23, 2021

Appalachian State meanwhile, has failed to cover in three straight. They’re 3-6-1 ATS this season, and just 1-2 against the number as a home favorite.

I’ll take the points with Louisiana.

Pick: Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns +3.5 (-118)