March Madness Elite 8 Picks – Best Underdog and Against the Spread Bets

• The Elite Eight games take place Monday (March 29th) and Tuesday (March 30th)
• The point spreads are all sitting at eight points or higher
• Which teams are the best bets to cover the spread and pull off a straight-up upset?

Down to eight teams in the 2021 NCAA Tournament, the field will be further whittled to four in about 36 hours’ time. The Elite Eight tips off tonight (March 29th) at 7:15 pm ET with Oregon State vs Houston and concludes tomorrow (March 30th) at 9:57 pm ET with UCLA vs Michigan.

Here is where the point spreads sit as of Monday morning.

Odds below from DraftKings

Elite Eight Picks

Odds as of March 29th.

Oregon State Is a Different Team

The point spread in the Oregon State vs Houston matchup opened at 7.5 and has been bet up to 8.0, while the OSU moneyline has grown from +240 to +280. I love that price for a Beavers upset.

The narrative around Oregon State is that the team got hot at the right time, winning the Pac-12 Tournament and stealing the league’s auto-bid, a roll they have continued in March Madness.

But that’s not quite right.

Since dropping a squeaker to Colorado (61-57) on Feb. 20th, the Beavers are on a 9-1 run, which started with three straight road wins over Cal, Stanford, and Utah. The latter two are both top-60 teams at KenPom and those were quality wins.

It’s not a huge surprise this team started slowly. Head coach Wayne Tinkle had to replace the player who led the Beavers in scoring each of the last three season, his son Tres (now playing in the G League).  OSU also saw third-leading scorer Kaylor Kelley graduate.

Almmost every significant part of this team has showed improvement over the course of the season. It starts with All-Pac-12 First Team guard Ethan Thompson, who is leading the team at 15.8 PPG in his senior season. Sophomore Jarod Lucas has upped his production from 4.6 points in 13.1 minutes per game to 12.9 in nearly 30 minutes a night.

On the inside, 7’1 senior center Roman SIlva has become vital. He’s only averaging 16 minutes per game on the year because of his penchant to get in foul trouble, but he’s been able to play at least 25 minutes in all three tournament games. Along with Wayne Altishe, Silva has helped the Beavers dominate the glass. They have a +27 rebounding margin through three games and played Loyola Chicago – one of the best rebounding teams in the country – to a stalemate on the glass.

The Houston Cougars hit the offensive glass hard. They sit second out of 357 Division I teams in offensive rebounding rate (39.5%) and, for the season, OSU has struggled to limit second-chance opportunities. Their defense is 228th in offensive-rebounding rate (29.3%).

But recent results show that the Beavers have been improving in this area. Against Tennessee (71st in OR%) and Oklahoma State (68th) – two very good rebounding teams – they had a defensive OR% just over 28%, which would be verging on a top-100 team, adjusted for opponent. OSU’s own OR% has also been improving, thanks mostly to the high-motor Altishe.

At +280, OSU only needs a 27% chance to win the game to be worth a wager. This is a solid, well-rounded team that – late in the season – dominated a Pac-12 conference that turned out to be stronger than anyone realized.

The Cougars are in for a dogfight.

UCLA Won’t Get Boat-Raced by Michigan

All the talk about Michigan coming into the tournament was how they wouldn’t be able to make a deep run without senior wing Isaiah Livers. Freshman center Hunter Dickinson would have to shoulder too big a load, and the mediocre guard play wouldn’t provide the necessary secondary scoring.

Wrong.

Michigan’s guards have been rock-solid through three games and Dickinson has been every bit as good as he’s had to be. The Wolverines have covered two straight – pretty decisively – against quality opponents. They held a double-digit lead against #8 LSU for much of the second half, ultimately winning by eight as 4.5-point favorites. In the Sweet 16, they dominated Florida State almost from the opening tip, winning by 18 as two-point chalk.

But now they face a team from the vaunted Pac-12. (I’m only half joking.) In the span of 1.5 minutes in their First Four clash with Michigan State, UCLA both saved its season and started a roll that is still building momentum.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwD6zFLwHUE

The main reason I like UCLA to cover is its ability to shoot from deep. The Wolverines have the third-best two-point defense in the country (42.6%). Starters Jaime Jaquez Jr (39.8%) and Jules Bernard (40.2%) are deadly, while reserve David Singleton (47.0% on 83 attempts) is an assassin if left alone.

Meanwhile, UCLA’s defense has held three straight opponents well below their season averages. BYU (78.1 PPG) scored just 62; Abilene Christian (75.7 PPG) managed a woeful 47; and run-and-gun Alabama (79.7 PPG) only managed 65 in regulation. This defense is playing better than its #55 efficiency rating at KenPom.

Speaking of KenPom, the highly respected analytics site predicts a five-point Michigan win. BartTorvik.com says Michigan is 4.7 points better over 40 minutes. If you take UCLA to cover the spread, know that arguably the two most-accurate prediction models agree with you.

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