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Michigan vs St John’s Odds, Spread, Picks & Predictions (Nov. 13)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Nov 13, 2023 · 6:49 AM PST

St. John's Red Storm guard Daniss Jenkins going after a loose ball
Nov 7, 2023; Queens, New York, USA; St. John's Red Storm guard Daniss Jenkins (5) dives after a loose ball in the second half against the Stony Brook Seawolves at Carnesecca Arena. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Gavitt Tipoff Games get underway today with Michigan at St John’s from MSG in New York
  • The Johnnies are 2.5-point home favorites over the Wolverines
  • See the full slate of Michigan vs St John’s odds plus expert picks and predictions for Monday’s game

The eighth annual (and also final) Gavitt Tipoff games between the Big Ten and Big East get underway tonight with the Michigan Wolverines (2-0, 0-0 away, 2-0 ATS) visiting the St John’s Red Storm (1-0, 1-0 home, 0-1 ATS) at Madison Square Garden in New York.

Tonight’s game will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1. Tip-off is scheduled for 6:30 pm ET. The Johnnies, who went 12-6 at home last year including eight straight home wins to start the year, are slim 2.5-point home favorites.

Michigan vs St John’s Odds

Team Point Spread Moneyline Total
Michigan Wolverines +2.5 (-110) +105 O 155.5 (-110)
St John’s Red Storm -2.5 (-110) -127 U 155.5 (-110)

St John’s is also a -127 moneyline favorite to win straight-up. The Wolverines come back as +105 moneyline underdogs in Monday’s college basketball odds. The total is sitting at 155.5.

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In last year’s Gavitt Tipoff Games, St John’s demolished Nebraska in Queens (70-50). Michigan was one of six Big Ten teams that did not participate in the eight-game competition. All-time in the Gavitt Games, the Big Ten owns a 30-26 lead, including going 6-2 last year.

Michigan Easily Covers Spread in First Two Games

While the competition level wasn’t terribly high, the Wolverines have still impressed in their first two games of the year.  Michigan took down UNC Asheville 99-74 as 10.5-point favorites and Youngstown State 92-62 at 16.5-point chalk.

Asheville was rated 203 at KenPom at the time while Youngstown was only 216, but the fact remains that Michigan covered both spreads by at least 13 points. That’s an encouraging sign for a team that’s dealing with a massive amount of roster turnover, even by college basketball standards. Head coach Juwan Howard had to replace all three of his leading scorers: Hunter Dickinson (18.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG), who transferred to Kansas, plus Kobe Bufkin (14.0 PPG, 2.9 APG) and son Jett Howard (14.5 PPG, 2.0 APG), who both went to the NBA.

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Leading the way on offense early on is Tennessee transfer Olivier Nkamhoua, who’s averaging 21.0 PPG along with 8.5 rebounds. The Finnish big man is shooting an absurd 78.3% from the field and didn’t miss against Youngstown State (7-7). Dug McDaniel, the team’s top returning scorer (8.6 PPG and 3.6 APG as a freshman), looks to be making the jump to bona fide star, with 19.0 points and 6.0 assists per game so far. McDaniel was rated as the #64 recruit in the country by ESPN in 2022.

Michigan missed the NCAA Tournament last year for the first time in Howard’s tenure. They are among the top-50 favorites in the 2024 March Madness championship odds, but just barely at +8750 on average, which is actually longer than St John’s (+6500).

St John’s Takes Down Stony Brook

The Johnnies breezed past 275th-rated Stony Brook in their opening game (90-74) and the lead was never fewer than eight points after the ten minute mark, but they didn’t cover the 19.5-point spread in Rick Pitino’s first game with the team.

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In addition to a new head coach, St John’s is also dealing with a massive amount of roster turnover. Six of their top-eight leading scorers transferred, including second, third, and fourth-leading scorers David Jones (Memphis), Posh Alexander (Butler), and Andre Curbelo (Southern Miss). But leading scorer and rebounder Joel Soriano (15.2 PPG, 11.9 RPG) is back for his senior season, while Pitino, the 1996 and 2013 national champion, has brought in a host of transfers, including the second-leading scorer from his 2022-23 Iona team, Daniss Jenkins (15.6 PPG, 4.4 APG last year).

Also joining the mix are 6’6 senior Chris Ledlum, who led Harvard in scoring and rebounding last year (18.8 PPG, 8.5 RPG), and prolific Penn guard Jordan Dingle, who averaged over 20 PPG with the Quakers each of the past two seasons.

Soriano, Jenkins, Ledlum, and Dingle all scored in double-figures in the season-opening win, accounting for 75% of St John’s points (68 of 90). A positive sign for a team now filled with scorers, Jenkins racked up eight assists while Ledlum added four.

St John’s started the year as the fifth-favorite in the Big East championship odds (+900), behind Creighton, Marquette, UConn, and Villanova.

Michigan vs St John’s Prediction

Apart from Soriano, St John’s bears little resemblance to the team that went 18-15 last year (7-13 in Big East play) but the quality of transfers that Pitino brought in makes that a positive. There will be growing pains as all the new faces coalesce, and that was evident at times in the Stony Brook game. To a man, though, the Red Storm are the stronger team, and they’re also at MSG for the first time this season. Michigan, with all its new bodies, has yet to play an away game, and Juwan Howard went just 3-9 away last year.

  • Michigan vs St John’s pick: St John’s -2.5 (-110)
  • Sascha Paruk 2023-24 NCAAM betting record: 3-0 ATS

 

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