Oakland vs Kentucky Picks, Odds, and Player Props (March 21)

• #14 Oakland takes on #3 Kentucky in the first round of March Madness in Pittsburgh, PA, on Thursday
• After winning the Horizon League, Oakland is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2011
• Read below for Oakland vs Kentucky picks, odds, and props

Oakland has been waiting for a while for Thursday as they were one of the first teams to clinch their bid to the 2024 NCAA Tournament. The Golden Grizzlies won their first ever Horizon League Tournament as the one-seed back on March 12. Kentucky ended its regular season as one of the hottest teams in the country before losing to Texas A&M in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament.

The Grizzlies are looking to bust some brackets and win their first Round of 64 game in school history, while Kentucky will be looking to make a deep run in the tournament. The Wildcats have not made the Sweet 16 since 2019.

This game takes place in the South region of the March Madness bracket, and the winner will play the victor of #11 NC State and #6 Texas Tech.

Oakland vs Kentucky Odds

The college basketball odds list the Wildcats as big 13.5-point favorites to Oakland in the Round of 64. The spread has not moved since the odds were released on Selection Sunday. The O/U is set at 162.5, and like the spread, has not changed since Sunday. At -1200 odds, Kentucky has an implied win probability of 92.31%.

Despite being the 3-seed, Kentucky has the fourth-best Final Four odds in the South region at +700. Oakland understandably has the second-longest odds to win the South region.

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Odds as of March 20 at BetMGM. Get the sign up offer for BetMGM before wagering on March Madness. If already registered at MGM, check out the Fanatics Sportsbook promo. 

Oakland Betting Trends

On their way to the #1 seed in the Horizon League Tournament, Oakland went 23-11 and won 15 of their 20 games in conference. The Golden Grizzlies went 21-13 (61.8%) against the spread and covered the spread in two of their last three games. They have also been a great underdog. Oakland is 9-3 against the spread as an underdog this season and have won six of those games straight up.  Despite playing at a slow tempo, the over has hit in four of Oakland’s last five outings. The over also hit in 23 of 34 of their games this year, including their 83-67 win over Milwaukee in the Horizon League Tournament final.

Oakland has a strong offense scoring over 76 points per game. This offense is led by Trey Townsend, Blake Lampman, and Jack Gohlke. Townsend, the Horizon League Player of the Year, does it all for the Golden Grizzlies. He leads the team in scoring, rebounds, assists, and steals per game. Lampman and Gohlke are great three-point shooters that can pull up from anywhere on the court. This is especially the case with Gohlke, who has made 14 three-pointers over his last three games. Gohlke also ranks second in the country in both total three-point field goals made and three-point field-goal attempts this year.

Oakland is an experienced and deep team. Nine of their players average at least ten minutes per game. Townsend has played and started in 127 games, which is second in Oakland history.

Kentucky Betting Trends

Kentucky has plenty of shooters as well. The Wildcats score the second-most points per game in the NCAA with an average of just under 90. The offense only got better towards the end of the season as they averaged 97.3 points per game in their last six. Antonio Reeves averages 20 points per game and leads the team in scoring. Freshman Reed Sheppard has stepped up as well and has averaged 18.2 points over his last five games. This includes a 27-point performance against Tennessee where Sheppard made seven of ten three-pointers.

This high-powered offense has made Kentucky the fourth-best over bet in the country. The over has hit in 23 of their 31 games. That is also attributed to Kentucky’s lack of defense. The Wildcats play at a fast pace and score quickly, but that oftentimes leads to them allowing easy buckets as well.

Before a surprising loss to Texas A&M in its first SEC Tournament game, Kentucky won seven of its last eight games. During that stretch, Kentucky clinched the 2-seed in the SEC Tournament after a mediocre start to conference play.

Oakland vs Kentucky Player Props

College basketball player props from BetMGM on March 20, 2024. 

Lampman and Gohlke are strong three-point shooters for Oakland, and both of their three-point props are set at 3.5. Lampman has not made four (or more)z threes since the last game of the regular season. Gohlke on the other hand has made at least four three-pointers in his last two games. He also has at least four in three of his last five.

Reed Sheppard is averaging over 18 points per game over his last five games and has gone over his current points prop of 12.5 in three of those games.

Oakland vs Kentucky Prediction

After a disappointing SEC Tournament outing, John Calipari and Kentucky enter March Madness with some pressure. The blue blood has not made it out of the first weekend of the tournament since 2019. This Wildcats team is plenty talented, but they are also young which could make them vulnerable to an upset scare.

Oakland has the scorers to put up plenty of points against Kentucky, and while the Wildcats should advance to the Round of 32, Oakland has all the talent to keep this game close. 13.5 is simply too many points to lay with this Kentucky defense.

Pick: Oakland +13.5 (-110)