Texas A&M vs Houston Predictions, Expert Picks & Props (March 24)

• The #9 Texas A&M Aggies take on the #1 Houston Cougars on Sunday night
• The teams met in Houston in the regular season with the Cougars winning by four
• See the Texas A&M vs Houston predictions, player props, and picks for Sunday, March 24

An all-Texas affair highlights the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Sunday night. The #9 Texas A&M Aggies (21-14, 5-2 neutral, 17-18 ATS) and the #1 Houston Cougars (31-4, 6-1 neutral, 17-16-2 ATS) will meet at FedEx Forum in Tennessee at 8:40 pm ET with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line.

Houston, which opened as a ten-point favorite on Friday night, is a 9.5-point favorite as of Sunday morning.

Texas A&M vs Houston Odds

A Sweet 16 team each of the past three years, the Cougars are -485 moneyline favorites to advance to the third round of the March Madness bracket for a fourth consecutive season. The  Aggies come back as +370 underdogs to reach the second weekend for the first time since 2018, while head coach Buzz Williams (with A&M since 2020) is personally looking for his first trip since 2019 with Virginia Tech.

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The #11 NC State Wolfpack became the first South Region team in the Sweet 16 last night with an OT win over #14 Oakland. Houston will face the winner of #12 James Madison vs #4 Duke in the next round, with NC State awaiting the winner of #10 Colorado vs #2 Marquette.

The Cougars are heavy favorites to win the South Region, currently listed at +120 in the Final Four odds, followed by Marquette back at +350. The Aggies are +1800 entering Sunday.

But the public is backing the Aggies to at least cover the spread in the college basketball public betting splits, with 59% of ATS handle on Texas A&M +9.5.

Aggies Obliterate Nebraska in First Round

Texas A&M picked the perfect time for its highest offensive output of the season, running over #8 Nebraska 98-83 on Friday in a game they led by 16 at halftime. A&M’s lead was never fewer than 12 in the second half. Three different Aggies scored at least 20 points, led by Wade Taylor IV with 25 on 7-of-10 from beyond the arc.

As a team, Texas A&M went 12-of-23 from three (56%) while holding Nebraska to 32%.

While that was the third straight game in which Aggies scored at least 90 points (and fifth straight with 80-plus), it was not the way A&M usually gets it done. The Aggies shoot just 29.2% from three for the season (344th in the nation) and 47% from two (305th).

But A&M still has the #28 offense in terms of efficiency at KenPom thanks to a ludicrous 41.9% offensive-rebound percentage, which is first in the nation by a wide margin. The second-best team (Towson) is at 39.8%.  Not since 2016 West Virginia (42%) has a team had a better OR%. Texas A&M is solid on the defensive glass, but not spectacular with 72.2 DR%. Their defense ranks 64th in overall efficiency.

This will be the Aggies second crack at Houston this season. The Cougars emerged with a tight 70-66 win in Houston on Dec. 16, though the final score was closer than reality. Houston led by 15 at halftime (38-23) and it wasn’t until the final two minutes that the Aggies managed to close the gap and cover as seven-point underdogs.

Junior guard Taylor, the team’s leading scorer (19.0 PPG), had over half the Aggies points in that game, dropping a season-high 34 on 10-of-22 shooting from the floor. The teams finished even on the glass (37-37) with A&M grabbing one more offensive rebound (17-16).

Houston Blows Out Longwood in Latest Defensive Masterclass

The top-rated defensive team in the nation, Houston started its 2024 NCAA Tournament run with an 84-46 win over #16 Longwood. The Cougars started the game on a 10-0 run and led by 27 at the break (43-16). That marked the fifth time in the last six games Houston held its opponent under 60, and the Cougars lead the nation in points against, surrendering just 56.7 per game.

Friday’s win over the Lancers was also a get-right game for Houston’s offense, which managed just 41 points in an embarrassing 69-41 to Iowa State in their first-ever Big 12 title game. Baylor transfer LJ Cryer, the team’s leading scorer at 15.4 PPG, had a co-team-high 17 alongside Damian Dunn’s 17 off the bench.

The Cougars managed to go 11-of-23 from three against Longwood (47.8%) while holding the Lancers to just 3-of-13 from beyond the arc and absolutely dominating the glass (29-18).

Houston sits 11th in the country in offensive-rebound percentage at 37% but just 221st on defense (69.9%). Neither team has a starter over 6’8.

Senior point guard Jamal Shead (13.0 PPG, 6.7 APG, 3.7 RPG, 2.2 SPG) won Big 12 Player of the Year in Houston’s first season in the powerhouse conference, leading the Cougars to the regular-season title at 15-3, two games clear of second-place Iowa State (13-5).

TEX A&M vs HOU Player Props

Player props from DraftKings on March 24. Check out the available DraftKings Sportsbook promo before betting on Texas A&M vs Houston.

A&M’s Taylor is listed with the highest point total at 17.5 O/U followed by teammate Tyrese Radford at 15.5 for the top-heavy Aggies. Cryer and Shead are both listed at 14.5 for the Cougars.

Texas A&M vs Houston Prediction

This line has moved a half point to the Aggies and that’s sensible. The Cougars play at a very slow pace (349th) and don’t shoot particularly well, as a team (35% from three and 48.8% from two). Their main weakness – defensive rebounding – also plays into A&M’s biggest strength – the offensive glass.

If A&M shoots half as well as it did against Nebraska, Houston is going to have an extremely difficult time building a double-digit lead.

Texas A&M vs Houston picks:

• Texas A&M +9.5 (-110)
• Radford under 15.5 points (-125)