Texas Tech vs Texas Picks and Odds

• #15 Texas Tech (10-3) battles #4 Texas (10-1) on Wednesday, Jan. 13, at 9:00 pm ET
• Two of the country’s best defenses — and best teams in general — matchup for the first of two in-state meetings this season
• The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below

After Wednesday, the next time #4 Texas and #15 Texas Tech face each other will be the final game of the regular season (assuming, of course, we’re fortunate enough to make it through the whole season). That means one of these in-state powers will have bragging rights for quite some time after they play Wednesday at 9pm ET in Austin.

The Longhorns’ lone loss came to a formidable Villanova group, while the Red Raiders have fallen to a trio of strong opponents. Texas enters as the favorite ahead of Wednesday’s matchup.

Texas vs Texas Tech Odds

Odds from FanDuel as of Jan. 12th, 2020.

How They’ve Fared So Far

Texas Tech has about as good of a resume as a three-loss team in January can have, with defeats against #11 Houston, #6 Kansas and Oklahoma State (35th in KenPom). The two most recent losses — against Kansas and Oklahoma State — came by a combined margin of six points.

The Red Raiders rank fifth in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, thanks to a ravenous defense that gobbles up turnovers on 26.7 possessions it sees (4th in NCAA Division I). Their offense is no slouch (37th in adjusted efficiency), but the winning formulas starts on defense.

1️⃣9️⃣.5️⃣ PPG
4️⃣.5️⃣ RPG
4️⃣3️⃣.8️⃣% from the three
Have yourself a week, @DrewdotCash. 🤘#HookEm pic.twitter.com/TgNPtljnHI

— Texas Men’s Basketball (@TexasMBB) January 12, 2021

Texas ranks fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency, so they’re right there with the Red Raiders. The Longhorns don’t create as many turnovers, but they’re positionally sound, forcing opponents to take poor shots that lead to a 42.3 effective shooting percentage (ninth in D-I).

The Longhorns lost to #3 Villanova at home, 68-64, about five weeks ago. Otherwise, they’ve been perfect. That includes five wins against teams inside KenPom’s top 50. But they haven’t always won convincingly, as three of their past four victories have come by six or fewer points.

ATS Analysis

Texas Tech is 5-8 against the spread, but they’re coming off one of their best showings of the year. Following seven consecutive ATS losses, the Red Raiders took on Iowa State as 8.5-point favorites and won handily, 91-64.

🗣 @CoachBeardTTU previews our matchup against No. 4 Texas.

🎥: https://t.co/qhvSr3vWsj pic.twitter.com/dAnriPzq8l

— Texas Tech Basketball (@TexasTechMBB) January 11, 2021

Facing Texas will be just the third road game of the Red Raiders’ season, and they are 1-1 ATS so far in those games.

Texas is 6-5 ATS, with two victories in its past three — including a 72-70 win over West Virginia as 1.5-point underdogs on Saturday. At home, the Longhorns are just 2-4 ATS.

Worth noting: both teams have seen the over hit in four consecutive games.

Head-to-Head Matchup

These teams split their pair of matchups last season (straight up and ATS), both of which featured Texas Tech as the favorite. The Red Raiders have gotten the better of the Longhorns of late, winning five of the past six straight up and four of the past five ATS.

Only two of Texas Tech’s starters from last year are back, while the Longhorns returned their entire starting five. That’s a stark difference, and it should help bettors understand why Texas has been so dynamic this year.

The Longhorns are the best pick here, and we advise betting against these teams’ recent over trends because of how good the defenses are.

Pick: Texas -3.5 (-102); Under 134.5 (-110)