UCLA’s March Madness Title Odds Improve from +4750 to +2500 After OT Thriller with Alabama

• The #11-seed UCLA Bruins survived an instant classic against #2 Alabama in the Sweet 16 on Sunday
• UCLA was tied for the worst NCAA Tournament title odds heading into the Sweet 16 (along with Creighton, which was going up against mighty Gonzaga)
• The Bruins’ odds shortened dramatically, but they remain a huge longshot to actually win the whole thing

Midway through #11 UCLA’s Sweet 16 matchup with #2 Alabama, it looked as though the bell was tolling on the Bruins’ Cinderella run. In just under five minutes, UCLA let the entirety of an 11-point half-time lead slip away.

But Johnny Juzang and company regained their composure and battled toe-to-toe with the Tide the rest of the way. Up three with four seconds to play, it appeared that the Bruins had punched their ticket to the Elite Eight. It wound up taking another (highly impressive) five minutes thanks to Alex Reese cementing his place on every March Madness montage for the next decade (see highlight clip below the table).

Now UCLA is off to the Sweet 16 to face East #1-seed Michigan. They will, once again, be sizable underdogs and their still-long NCAA Tournament title odds reflect the fact that the already-challenging road only gets steeper from here.

March Madness Championship Odds

Odds updated March 28th, 2021.

UCLA Is a Betting Darling (Now)

The Bruins entered the tournament as cold as almost any team. They had lost four in a row, both straight up and against the spread, and were 2.5-point underdogs in their First Four matchup with an improving Michigan State team.

Down five with under two to play, they went on an 11-1 run that spanned the end of regulation and OT, giving them an 86-80 victory and a spot in the tournament proper.

UCLA picked up where it left off in the first round against #6 BYU, winning by 11 (73-62) as 3.5-point underdogs.

Finally a 5.5-point favorite against #14 Abilene Christian, UCLA held serve, blowing out the Wildcats bt 20 (67-47).

Mick Cronin’s alpha bears have been flexing.  Leading scorer Johnny Juzang (15.1 PPG) had 23 against both Michigan State, 27 against BYU, and a team-high 17 against ACU.

Jaime Jaquez Jr went off for 27 in the First Four against the Spartans and is averaging 16.8 PPG in the tournament.

The Bruins Can’t Relax

UCLA’s four straight wins have been undeniably impressive, but the going is about to get considerably harder. Up next is a battle with East #1-seed Michigan, a team that has dusted aside two high-quality opponents its last two games, despite being shorthanded.

If UCLA gets past Michigan, waiting in the Final Four is either going to be #1-overall seed Gonzaga or a rampaging USC team that will have just handed Gonzaga its first loss since February 2020.

The Bruins have already opened as 7.5-point underdogs to the Wolverines. Their +275 moneyline has an implied probability of just 26.7%. Taking out the vig, their true probability is roughly 25.6%.

With a +2500 price tag in the title futures, UCLA needs to have a 3.9% chance to win the tournament to justify a bet.

Their chances of beating Gonzaga are going to be a shade lower than their chances of beating Michigan. Putting it conservatively at 25%, UCLA has a 6.3% chance of winning its next two games. Even if they are allotted a 50% chance of winning the title game, their true probability is still only 3.1%.

The math doesn’t add up for a futures bet on UCLA at this point.