UConn vs Villanova Picks and Odds (Feb. 5)

• The UConn vs Villanova odds favor the Wildcats by 5-points on Saturday (Feb. 5) at 12pm ET
• Villanova and UConn rank first and second in scoring defense in the Big East
• Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

Saturday’s college hoops slate features four games between ranked programs, starting with a massive tilt in the Big East. #12 Villanova hosts #17 UConn, in what is likely a must-win for both teams if they want to keep their regular-season conference title hopes alive – more on that later.

UConn vs Villanova Odds

Odds as of Feb. 4th at BetMGM.

The Wildcats opened up as a 5-point home favorite, in a game that features a total of 129.5. Tip-off is scheduled for just after Noon ET at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, PA, with FOX providing the broadcast coverage nationwide.

Villanova Wildcats Betting Analysis

The Wildcats enter play fresh off their second loss in two weeks to #24 Marquette. In between defeats, they reeled off three consecutive victories over Big East competition, beating St. John’s, DePaul, and Georgetown by double-figures.

The two losses to the Golden Eagles are their only two setbacks over the past 11 games, and their shooting was to blame for their latest defeat.

Final. pic.twitter.com/XjYenO2CxF

— Villanova MBB (@NovaMBB) February 3, 2022

Villanova never led on Wednesday against Marquette, shooting just 38.3% from the field, and 29.4% from three. They missed 12 of their first 13 three-point attempts of the second half, and had no answers for the Golden Eagles’ offense.

That's three straight baskets for @410D_!#MUBB | #WeAreMarquette pic.twitter.com/q0tuB9jHa6

— Marquette Basketball (@MarquetteMBB) February 3, 2022

Marquette shot 53.8% from the field en route to 83 points, the most the Wildcats have surrendered since their second game of the season against #3 UCLA. The performance was far from typical by Villanova’s standards, especially considering they held the Golden Eagles to just 57 points in their previous matchup.

The Wildcats currently lead the Big East in scoring defense, yielding only 61.1 points per game. They’re also holding enemy shooters to an average of just 40.5% from the field, and 31% from three.

Offensively, Villanova is far from elite. They average the fourth-fewest points in the conference (72.5), but do shoot a high percentage from three (36.2%). Second leading scorer Justin Moore is currently questionable for Saturday’s game, which would leave a huge void on offense should he miss.

Big East NET Rankings:

Villanova – 8
UConn – 17
Xavier – 20
Marquette – 25
Providence – 29
Seton Hall – 43
Creighton – 69
St. John’s – 90
DePaul – 108
Butler – 127
Georgetown – 204#sjubb #BigEast

— Pitino Parkway (@PitinoParkway) February 4, 2022

One potential area of concern for this upcoming  tilt versus UConn is the Wildcats play on the glass. By the numbers, they’re the second worst rebounding team in the Big East, while the Huskies are the best.

UConn Huskies Betting Analysis

The Huskies are also coming off a loss, which snapped their five-game winning streak. UConn fell to Creighton 59-55 on Tuesday, in one of their worst offensive performances of the season.

Final. pic.twitter.com/guMD2a8tMw

— UConn Men's Basketball (@UConnMBB) February 2, 2022

They shot a dismal 29.9% from the field, and 23.8% from beyond the arc. The result follows a victory over DePaul where they were even worse from downtown. They shot only 13.3% from distance against the Blue Demons, but the good news is that their defense has been spectacular in back-to-back outings.

They held the Bluejays to a 39.3% field goal percentage, while forcing 14 turnovers. Three days earlier, they held DePaul to 28.8% from the field, and 4-of-15 from three.

𝐁𝐈𝐆 opportunity on the road tomorrow‼️#ThisIsUConn pic.twitter.com/Kr336uFamA

— UConn Men's Basketball (@UConnMBB) February 4, 2022

UConn ranks second in the conference in scoring defense, behind only Villanova, while boasting the best defensive rating in the Big East. They’ve held four of their past five opponents below 60 points, and should be able to keep the Wildcats in check on Saturday.

UConn vs Villanova Pick

With both teams excelling on defense, and neither posting quality shooting numbers versus strong competition recently, this game profiles as a low-scoring affair.

Each of the Huskies’ past two games have come in under the total, while the Wildcats have been cashing under tickets at a strong clip all season. The under is 6-3 in Villanova’s last nine home games, and 3-2 versus top-25 competition this season.

Big East Standings:

1. Providence 9-1
2. Villanova 9-3
3. UConn 6-3
4. Marquette 8-4
5. Xavier 6-4
6. Creighton 5-4
7. Seton Hall 4-6
8. Butler 4-7
9. St. John’s 3-6
10. DePaul 1-9
11. Georgetown 0-8

— John Fanta (@John_Fanta) February 3, 2022

Both programs are two games back of the Big East’s top team Providence in the loss column. Another loss will effectively end their hopes of a regular season title, raising the stakes in this showdown. Expect both teams to rise to the occasion defensively, making buckets very hard to come by.

Pick: Under 129.5 (-110)