Utah State vs Purdue Odds, Picks & Predictions (March 24)

• The #1 Purdue Boilermakers face the #8 Utah State Aggies on Sunday, March 24
• A year after losing to a #16 seed in the first round, Purdue breezed through its first-round game against Grambling
• See the Utah State vs Purdue odds, picks, and predictions for the NCAA Tournament round of 32

The Midwest #1 Purdue Boilermakers (30-4, 6-1 neutral, 17-15-2 ATS) put fears of another first-round upset to rest on Friday during a 78-50 rout of Grambling State. The Boilermakers never trailed and their lead was never fewer than six after the ten-minute mark.

But the competition stiffens from here on out, starting with a matchup against the #8 Utah State Aggies (28-6, 5-1 neutral, 15-15-2) in the second round at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Sunday afternoon (2:40 pm ET).

Purdue remains a double-digit favorite heading into the round of 32, though.

Utah State vs Purdue Odds

After covering as 26.5-point chalk against Grambling, Purdue is an 11.5-point favorite against Utah State and -625 on the moneyline to advance in Sunday’s college basketball odds. The Aggies are +455 underdogs to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1970.

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Odds as of March 23 at DraftKings. See the best DraftKings offers before betting on USU vs Purdue this Sunday.

Purdue is the +165 chalk to win the Midwest Region in the latest Final Four odds. Utah State has the longest odds in the Midwest at +4000.

Edey Has Monster Double-Double Against Grambling

Edey and coach Matt Painter shouldered a lot of criticism after Purdue bowed out to #16 Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round last year, despite the center finishing with 21 points and 15 rebounds. Edey only had 11 field-goal attempts in the 63-58 loss. Purdue looked determined to flip the narrative on Friday night. Edey finished with a game-high 30 points on 17 field-goal attempts and 14 free-throw attempts, while also hauling in 21 rebounds. 

Edey’s supporting cast was plenty good enough, shooting 38% from beyond the arc (9-of-24) and dishing out 23 assists, led by an 11-point, 10-assist double-double from point guard Braden Smith.

Purdue won its first five neutral-court games this season, all against top-20 teams. During the Maui Invitational, Purdue stacked three wins against Gonzaga (73-63), Tennessee (71-67), and Marquette (78-75). They went on to beat Alabama (92-86) in Toronto and Michigan State (67-62) in Minneapolis in the Big Ten Tournament before falling to Wisconsin in OT in the semifinals (76-75 OT).

The Boilermakers head into the round of 32 ranked third in overall efficiency at both Halsametrics and KenPom, where they are fourth on offense and 20th on defense.

Utah State’s Hot Shooting Too Much for TCU

The Aggies had a great regular season, winning the Mountain West regular-season crown with a 14-4 record before losing to San Diego State in the MW Tournament semifinals (86-70). They went into their first-round matchup with TCU as 3.5-point underdogs, though.

Led by a 21-point performance from Ian Martinez, the Aggies blew out TCU 88-73, shooting 55% from the field and 42.1% from three as a team. Utah State’s defense, meanwhile, held the Frogs to just 35.8% from the floor, ensuring TCU’s 21 offensive rebounds didn’t come back to bite the Aggies.

Utah State sits just 44th at KenPom and 57th at Haslametrics. Only seven of the 31 teams remaining in the March Madness bracket sit lower in the KenPom ratings.

Montana State transfer Great Osobor, a 6’9, 250-pound junior, leads the Aggies in scoring at 17.8 PPG, but he’s just one of four players in double-figures for a Utah State team that’s averaging exactly 80 points per game.

USU vs PUR Player Props

As always, Edey has the highest point total (25.5 O/U) and rebound total (12.5 O/U) on the board, and it’s not close. Osobor leads the Aggies players at 15.5 points and 6.5 rebounds, which is well below his season average of 9.1 RPG, as oddsmakers expect Edey to dominate the glass.

Utah State vs Purdue Prediction

The offensive glass is going to be a huge concern concern for the Aggies. Utah State gave up 21 offensive rebounds to TCU, and now has to contend with arguably the best rebounder in the nation in Edey.

The defensive glass was generally a strength for Utah State this season, though. They finished 65th out of 362 DI teams in defensive-rebound percentage (73.8%). As long as the Aggies improve their performance at that end of the court compared to last game, they should stay competitive throughout this second-round matchup.

USU vs PUR Picks:

• Utah State +5.5. (+200)
• Osobor over 6.5 rebounds (-145)