Villanova vs Providence Odds and Picks

• The Providence Friars (12-12,  8-10 Big East) host the Villanova Wildcats (16-4, 11-3 Big East) Saturday, March 6
• Both teams are coming off losses, with the Friars mired in a three-game skid
• Read below for odds, analysis, and our best bet for this matchup

The Providence Friars (12-12, 8-10 Big East), losers in two of their last three games, host the Villanova Wildcats (16-4, 11-3 Big East) Saturday, March 6 in Rhode Island. Tip is set for 2:30 pm ET at Alumni Hall.

Jay Wright’s team beat Creighton 72-60 Wednesday to clinch the conferenced title, but the victory was a costly one. Collin Gillespie, who Wright called the ‘heart and soul’ of the program, tore his left MCL during the first half and is lost for the season. Meantime, Providence laid an egg in an 81-67 loss to St. John’s Wednesday. The Friars are underdogs, but have won three of their last four coming in. They are now guaranteed to finish with a sub-.500 Big East record for the second time in three seasons.

Now, ‘Nova — without Gillespie — is a road favorite over the Friars.

Villanova vs Providence Odds

Odds taken March 5 from FanDuel

Next Man Up

Moving on without Gillespie, who Wildcats junior forward Cole Swider called the emotional leader of the team, will be challenging. The Bob Cousy Award finalist was averaging 14.0 points, 3.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game. He shot 42.8% overall and 37.6% from deep for the season before going down.

It remains to be seen if Gillespie applies for another year; the NCAA is giving an additional season of eligibility to every winter sport student-athlete. Regardless, Wright said his team needs to take on a “next man up” mentality for Providence and the postseason.

Gillespie was at Wildcat practice Friday morning, coaching up his teammates and will travel with the team for the game against the Friars. Having him on the bench should provide an emotional spark for the No. 10 team in the country. As for who takes over the point on the court, that job goes to Justin Moore.

Moore, a 6-foot-4 sophomore, has put up remarkably similar stats to Gillespie this season. Moore has averaged 13.4 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game, while shooting 43.8% from the field and 31.4% from three-point range. He’s coming off an outstanding game against the Blue Jays in that 12-point win.

The ‘Cats may lose a little in the three-point shooting department without Gillespie. But this is a veteran club with a two-time National Championship-winning coach at the helm. Villanova should be fine without their senior star.

Limping to the Finish Line

Providence committed eight of its 11 turnovers and shot just 34.5% in the second half in its 14-point defeat to the Johnnies this week. The team’s leading scorer, David Duke, averages 17.1 points per game. But junior guard netted only three of his 16 points and the Friars missed all nine of their 3-point attempts in the second 20 minutes against St. John’s.

The TOP 5⃣ from Wednesday's victory over Providence at Carnesecca Arena 📽️ #SJUBB pic.twitter.com/GV9dxwIZP1

— St. John's Men’s Basketball (@StJohnsBBall) March 4, 2021

The Friars closed the game out going just 4-for-23 from deep, with 17.4% from distance being their worst three-point showing since a road loss at Butler two days before Christmas.

While the Friars have been wildly inconsistent this season, one constant has been their ability to defend the three.

They hold opponents to just 30.2% from deep, which is 28th best in the country. This is hugely important against Villanova, as the Wildcats love the three-ball and are tied for first in the Big East in three-point shooting percentage. As noted above,  without Gillespie, ‘Nova will already be compromised in that facet.

Conversely, the Friars are 220th in the nation guarding two pointers and opposing teams are shooting above 50% inside the arc. Villanova will need to take advantage of this and rely a bit more on traditional baskets.

The Last Time

The Wildcats beat the Friars, 71-56 on January 23, struggling in the first half after having just returned from a long COVID related hiatus.  But thanks to a stellar second half, Villanova emerged with the 15-point victory.

A big key to that win was Providence’s 19 turnovers. Additionally, the ‘Cats effectively shut out the Friars’ two star players, holding Nate Watson to only 12 points and two rebounds and Duke to 10 points on 4-of-17 shooting.

Rest assured, even if Providence limits its turnovers, if Duke and Watson can’t get loose Saturday, this will be an easy ‘Nova win.

Yes, the Wildcats will look different without Gillespie on the court. But Wright’s club still needs to impress the selection committee its worthy of a top seed in the Big Dance. Look for Villanova to impress on the road.

The pick: Villanova -4.0 (-110)