Virginia vs Duke Predictions & Odds (Mar. 2)

• Virginia battles Duke in college basketball on Saturday
• The UVA vs Duke odds favor the Cavaliers to win big at home
• Read below for Virginia vs Duke prediction, odds & trends for Saturday

The Virginia Cavaliers will travel to Durham to take on the #10 Duke Blue Devils this Saturday, March 2nd at 6 PM EST on ESPN.

The Blue Devils are currently 9.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks, with some betting apps moving the line to -10. The over/under is currently set at 124.5 points.

What’s our prediction for Virginia vs Duke on Saturday? Let’s dive into the UVA vs Duke odds and trends, as we analyze this NCAAB showdown.

Virginia vs Duke Odds

In the UVA vs Duke odds, the Blue Devils are notable -9.5 favorites on the spread and -550 on the moneyline, giving them an implied win probability of 84%.

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Odds as of March 2nd, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Get a $1,500 BetMGM Sportsbook bonus to make a wager on UVA vs Duke.

North Carolina sports betting pre-registration is now live! Bettors in the Tar Heel State can unlock sweet bonus money by visiting the best betting apps in NC.

UVA vs Duke Betting Trends & Splits

The college basketball public betting trends can help when making a prediction for UVA vs Duke. According to our latest data from top-rated sportsbooks, there is big money on Duke to cover -9 against the Cavaliers. The Blue Devils are receiving 72% of spread handle with just 40% of bets.

While not guarantee, this discprancny in number of bets and % of handle indicates the professionals are likely backing the heavy favorite here. Pinnacle, one of the sharpest sportsbooks in the world, recently shifted this line to Duke -10.

There are also betting trends pointing towards Duke being the right side on Saturday. Not only are they 14-2 at home this season, but they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games and 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.

Virginia, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last five games and have just two wins against Duke in their past 20 trips to Durham.

Cavaliers Betting Analysis

Virginia comes into this matchup with a 21-8 overall record and 12-6 mark in ACC play. The Cavaliers are currently riding a one-game winning streak after defeating Boston College 72-68 on the road last game.

𝐇𝐨𝐨𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐧!

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— Virginia Men's Basketball (@UVAMensHoops) February 29, 2024

However, prior to that win, Virginia had lost three of their previous five contests. The Cavaliers have struggled offensively during that stretch, failing to score over 50 points in three straight games before breaking out for 72 against Boston College.

On the season, Virginia ranks 292nd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. They play at the slowest pace in Division 1 and rely heavily on their defense, which ranks 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Virginia’s Key Players and Stats

• Reece Beekman (G): 11.7 PPG, 5.2 APG, 49% FG
• Armaan Franklin (G): 11.3 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 84% FT
• Jayden Gardner (F): 11.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 50% FG

The Cavaliers do not have a dominant go-to scorer. Beekman, Franklin and Gardner share the load fairly evenly. As a team, Virginia shoots 36.5% from three and 65% on free throws. They rarely turn the ball over, but also rarely get offensive rebounds.

Blue Devils Betting Analysis

Duke is 22-6 overall and 13-4 in conference play. They sit just one game back of North Carolina for first place in the ACC with three games remaining. The Blue Devils have won six of their last seven games, including blowout wins in their last two.

On Wednesday, Duke dismantled Louisville 84-59 at home. The Blue Devils boast a top-25 offense nationally, ranking 8th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They shoot the ball extremely well from the perimeter and move the ball effectively.

Defensively, Duke ranks 25th in adjusted efficiency – not quite as elite as Virginia but still a tough unit.

Duke’s Key Players and Stats

• Jeremy Roach (G): 12.6 PPG, 3.1 APG, 36% 3PT
• Kyle Filipowski (F): 14.9 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 39% 3PT
• Mark Mitchell (G): 12.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 47% FG

Roach, Filipowski and Mitchell lead a balanced Duke scoring attack. The Blue Devils shoot 39% from beyond the arc as a team, one of the best marks nationally. They are also one of the best offensive-rebounding teams in the country.

Virginia vs Duke Prediction

This matchup pits strength versus strength – Virginia’s elite defense against Duke’s high-powered offense. The Cavaliers are likely to slow the pace and make it hard for Duke to score efficiently. However, Duke’s outside shooting and passing ability gives them a chance to unlock Virginia’s defense.

Ultimately, the Blue Devils’ home-court advantage and offensive talent should overwhelm Virginia. The Cavaliers’ offense has looked utterly inept at times recently. Follow the line movement and bet on Duke to win by double digits in Durham.

UVA vs Duke Pick:

• Duke Blue Devils -9.5 (-110 at BetMGM )