Wooden Award Odds – Garza Already a +125 Favorite
- Iowa’s Luka Garza was +375 to win college basketball’s Player of the Year a few days ago, but is now at +125 after two dominant performances
- Illinois’ Ayo Dosunmu remains the closest in the odds to Garza at +500
- See the odds, analysis, and best bet, below
Luka Garza and the Iowa Hawkeyes opened their season last Wednesday against the North Carolina Central Eagles in dominating fashion, winning 97-67. Garza only played 24 minutes but still had time to drop 26 points and grab 10 rebounds in the win. Garza followed with a 41-point, nine-rebound outing versus the Southern Jaguars on Friday.
Oddsmakers have taken notice of Garza’s exploits and listed him at +125 to win the John R. Wooden Award for national player of the year. Last Wednesday, Garza was at +375 in the Naismith POY odds. The Naismith is technically a different award with a different voting body, but the same player has won both awards in 16 of the last 17 seasons.
2021 John R. Wooden Award Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Luka Garza (Iowa) | +125 |
| Ayo Dosunmu (Illinois) | +500 |
| Jared Butler (Baylor) | +800 |
| Cade Cunningham (Oklahoma State) | +1200 |
| Corey Kispert (Gonzaga) | +1700 |
| Drew Timme (Gonzaga) | +1700 |
| Jeremiah Robinson Earl (Villanova) | +2500 |
| Marcus Garrett (Kansas) | +2500 |
| Marcus Zegarowski (Creighton) | +2500 |
| Jalen Johnson (Duke) | +4000 |
| Jalen Suggs (Gonzaga) | +4000 |
| McKinley Wright IV (Colorado) | +4000 |
| Remy Martin (Arizona State) | +4000 |
| Trayce Jackson Davis (Indiana) | +4000 |
| Macio Teague (Baylor) | +4500 |
| Kofi Cockburn (Illinois) | +5000 |
| Sam Hauser (Virginia) | +5000 |
| Collin Gillespie (Villanova) | +6000 |
| Garrison Brooks (North Carolina) | +6000 |
| Joel Ajayi (Gonzaga) | +6000 |
| Ochai Agbaji (Kansas) | +6000 |
| Seth Towns (Harvard) | +6000 |
Odds as of December 1st at FanDuel.
Garza Is Unstoppable
Luka Garza is must watch entertainment every time he steps on the floor. At 6’11” and 265 pounds, he is the definition of a matchup nightmare. He looked every bit the part in his first two games this season.
In two games, his stats look unattainable even on a video game. So far, he’s averaging 33.5 points on 86.2% shooting from the field including 75% from beyond the arc. He is also a near-perfect 87.5 % from the charity stripe and blocked three shots in each game he has played.
Luka Garza nearly had a perfect game! 🤯
No. 5 Iowa takes down Southern. pic.twitter.com/HhNtDD9H5j
— ESPN (@espn) November 28, 2020
The one knock for detractors could be the level of competition. According to KenPom, Southern is the 260th-ranked team in the nation while North Carolina Central is 290th.
Time will tell if Garza’s brilliance will continue against stiffer competition. Last season suggests it will. Garza averaged over 25 points and nearly ten rebounds per game in Big Ten play last year while winning the Sporting News and Associated Press POY honors. (Dayton’s Obi Toppin won the Naismith and Wooden.)
The Best of the Rest
Ayo Dosunmu (+500) and Kofi Cockburn (+5000) of Illinois both spurned the NBA to return to campus this season. Of the two, Dosunmu is the only one with a real shot at winning this award but it would take an injury to Garza.
The 6’5″ junior from Chicago has been consistent offensively so far this season scoring at least 22 points in each game. His 42.9% mark from three-point range is a career high by a wide margin. His previous best was 35.2% in his freshman year.
Attention Illinois fans: Prepare yourselves for a memorable season.
Ayo Dosunmu (28 PTS, 10 REB) + Kofi Cockburn (18 PTS, 10 REB) + Adam Miller(28 PTS, 3 REB) = Very Good
— CollegeBB News (@CollegeBBNCAA) November 25, 2020
Jared Butler and Cade Cunningham are the others to keep a serious eye on as the season progresses. Cunningham is tough to bet at +1200 given that the award has only gone to a freshman three times. Still, he was the nation’s number one recruit.
Butler at +800 is interesting given his role on a team that could be ranked in the top ten all season. He has started the season on fire from behind the three-point line, making seven of his first twelve attempts. Not only can he shoot, he can jump out of the gym as well, which will lead to some highlight-reel dunks.
https://twitter.com/andrewmastin/status/1333210133128749057?s=20
Toppin’s penchant for inserting himself into SportsCenter’s Plays of the Days certainly didn’t hurt his POY resume last season.
Best Bet for the Wooden Award
As tough as it is to lay such a short number against a large field, Garza is still the pick here. At +125, he would have to have at least a 44.5% chance to win to be good value, and his situation puts him in that realm. Not only does he have the career resume, he also plays for a team that pushes the pace, which means he will continue to rack up stats.
Using KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric, Iowa is currently 75th in the nation. Given Garza’s skillset and efficiency, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him average 25-plus points and double-digit rebounds per game in such a system. He has the type of usage rate (34%) not afforded to many of the other favorites on the board, which extends his advantage. He is simply the right player in the right system in the right year.
Pick: Luka Garza +125
John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it.
