Zion & Barrett Unders Are the Best Way to Bet Against Duke
- Led by freshman phenoms Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett, Duke is tearing up college basketball.
- Bettors can now wager on whether Williamson and Barrett will average over 23.5 PPG this year.
- All signs point to no.
The 2018-19 Duke Blue Devils hauled in arguably the best recruiting class in the history of college basketball, led by the consensus top-two recruits in the country, Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett.
The team flew out of the gate, trouncing preseason #2 Kentucky 118-84 in their opener, with Barrett (33 pts) and Williamson (28 pts) leading the way. Excluding a minor hiccup in Maui against current #1 Gonzaga (89-87 loss), it’s been much of the same since then. Duke already owns a 26-point win over San Diego State, a 21-point win over Indiana, and a six-point win over #8 Auburn in a game that was never in doubt.
The Blue Devils are now a prohibitive +200 favorite to win the National Championship at most betting sites. There’s not much value on that wager, but there is another Duke-related bet to capitalize on.
Books have a prop on how many points per game Williamson and Barrett will average during the regular season. They set the total at 23.5 PPG for both players, which is incredibly optimistic.
Zion Williamson & RJ Barrett Over/Under PPG (Regular Season)
| Player | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson | 23.5 PPG (-110) | 23.5 PPG (-120) |
| RJ Barrett | 23.5 PPG (-105) | 23.5 PPG (-125) |
The Unders Are the Smart Bet
The Under is the play on both fronts.
To set the stage, here are their statistics through seven games. As you can see, both are under the number so far. Barrett is close at 22.7 PPG, while Williamson is more than two points short at 21.3 PPG.
| 7 | Games Played | 7 |
| 27.3 MPG | Minutes | 31.6 MPG |
| 21.3 PPG | Points | 22.7 PPG |
| 12.8 FGA | Field-Goal Attempts | 20.4 FGA |
| 66.7% | Field-Goal Percentage | 42.0% |
| 1.4 3PA | Three-Point Attempts | 6.0 3PA |
| 20% | Three-Point Percentage | 33.3% |
The Case Against Barrett
Barrett’s PPG number is likely to stay under 23.5 PPG for a few reasons.
First, he is not going to keep averaging 20 shots per game. There are already signs that Mike Krzyzewski is trying to run more offense through Zion, Cam Reddish, and Tre Jones. The end of the Gonzaga game showed that playing iso-ball through Barrett is not this team’s best option.
RJ Barrett went 0-5 in the last minute of Duke vs Gonzaga.
— Kent (@kent_hodder) November 22, 2018
His efficiency will go up — he’s a better scorer than his 42.0 FG% suggests — but that’s going to be counteracted by a decrease in attempts.
Second, Barrett has only scored more than 23 PPG in one game this season, and that was the first game of the year. In order to get to 23.6 PPG for the year, he’ll need to average 23.8 PPG the rest of the way. It’s a small sample size, but the trend so far says that’s highly improbable.
Third, Duke history favors the under. Marvin Bagley led, not just Duke, but the entire ACC in scoring last year at 21.0 PPG, and that was while playing nearly 34 minutes per night. The years prior, Duke was led by:
- Luke Kennard: 19.5 PPG, 2016-17
- Grayson Allen: 21.6 PPG, 2015-16
- Jahlil Okafor: 17.3 PPG, 2014-15
- Jabari Parker: 19.1 PPG, 2013-14.
No Duke player has averaged more than 23.5 PPG since JJ Redick (26.8 PPG) in 2005-06.
Fourth, Duke’s schedule is going to get harder, not easier. Duke is averaging 91.6 PPG right now, and that will decrease once conference play starts. Six ACC teams are top-25 in defensive efficiency at KenPom: Virginia (2nd), Syracuse (6th), FSU (15th), Georgia Tech (16th), Miami (24th), and Clemson (25th). Those teams account for seven of Duke’s 24 remaining regular-season games. They have to play Virginia and Syracuse twice each.
There is a reason why just one ACC player has averaged over 23.5 PPG in the last five years (TJ Warren: 24.9 PPG for NC State in 2013-14) and it’s not due to a lack of scorers in the conference.
The Case Against Zion
Some of the case against Barrett applies equally to Zion, specifically:
- the trends (both for Duke and the ACC as a whole) favor the Under;
- Zion will face the same grueling ACC schedule/defenses.
There is a decent argument that Zion will increase his PPG from here on out. He’s been the most efficient scorer on the team and should be getting more shot attempts. Coach K is smart enough to figure that out, so expect Zion’s field-goal attempts to go up.
How efficient is Zion Williamson? He’s making two out of every three (66.7%) shots he takes from the field. Only averaging 12.9 field goal attempts. More touches — please!
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) November 29, 2018
However, there’s a lot working against Zion, too.
First, he’s only averaging 21.3 PPG right now, meaning he needs to up his average by over two points in the final 24 games. That will require a 24.2 PPG average the rest of the way. So far, he’s had three games with more than 24 points and four games with fewer than 24 points. He had 22 against Gonzaga and 13 against Auburn, i.e. the two best teams/defenses he’s faced so far (per KenPom).
It’s a block party in Maui ??@DukeMBB vs #Gonzaga
Zion Williamson obliterated this shot attempt & then got his blasted ?#NCAAB #Snglv pic.twitter.com/uslgF9nC3C— SportsNgiggles (@sportsNgiggles) November 21, 2018
Second, Zion has an unsustainable 66.7 FG%, a number he’s padded against overmatched Army (11-14, 78.6%) and Eastern Michigan (10-12, 83.3%). Expect his year-end FG% to be closer to Bagley’s 61.4% after 18 ACC games.
Third, his range is limited. It’s going to be incredibly hard for Zion to average 23.5 PPG while (a) taking just 1.4 three-point attempts per game and (b) hitting at a 20% clip from behind the arc. Last season, every player in the nation who averaged over 23.5 PPG took at least 6.4 threes per game. The highest scorer who took fewer than four was Jock Landale from St. Mary’s (21.4 PPG, 0.3 3PA).
It’s been a decade since any player has averaged over 23.0 PPG while attempting fewer than two three-pointers per game. And that player, Notre Dame’s Luke Harangody, didn’t quite get to the magic mark of 23.5, averaging 23.2 PPG for the Irish in 2008-09.
In sum, betting on the Over would mean betting against almost every indicative trend. I know where my money is going has already gone.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
