Week 7 College Football Opening Odds and Spreads

• AP Top 25 teams have struggled to cover the spread so far this season
• Alabama/Georgia and LSU/Florida make for two of the week’s most compelling matchups
• See the full list of Week 7 lines and odds below

For those frustrated by trying to pin down which trends are useful when placing bets on college football this season, you likely have good reason.

Without a qualifier for games played due to the volatility COVID-19 has created, the top 25 FBS offenses so far this season have averaged 443.56 yards per game, down from 497.85 from the same point last season. The top 25 offensive touchdown-scoring teams have gone from averaging 21.6 in 2019 to 17.72 during the same period of time this year.

Defensively, the top 25 teams in the same window were allowing an average of 287.8 yards per game, but this season’s top 25 have allowed far fewer at 264.05 per game. That contrasts with an increase in the average number of touchdowns allowed moving from 4.64 to 4.96 among the top group in that category.

These figures aren’t exactly perfect because of the range in games played between many of the teams this season, but they give credence to the idea that taking the points is still an effective strategy. The gap between what top offenses have been producing against what top defenses have been allowing is smaller, and as a result, teams within the last AP Top 25 are a combined 28-32-1 ATS. That could change this week, but keep an eye on the up-to-date College Football odds in the meantime.

Week 7 College Football Opening Odds and Spreads

Odds taken from FanDuel on Oct. 11

Alabama vs Georgia Headlines the Action

The top matchup this week goes off on Saturday evening when No. 2 Alabama plays host to No. 3 Georgia. The Crimson Tide open as familiar 6.5-point favorites.

This will be just the third time the two teams have played against each other since former Nick Saban assistant Kirby Smart took over as the Bulldogs’ head coach. The previous games both took place in 2018; the first in the 2017-18 College Football National Championship and the second in the 2018 SEC Championship game. Georgia pushed on the spread in their first meeting and covered as 12-point underdogs in their second, but in both games, the two went over the closing point total.

This year’s Georgia team has a bit of a different complexion on offense. After leaving the program to play a year of junior college football, Stetson Bennett is back in Athens and has been a surprisingly steady presence under center. Against Tennessee on Saturday, he finished with 238 yards passing and two touchdowns, and for the season, he’s completed 63-percent of his passes with no interceptions.

Stetson Bennett: "I think we covered tonight, so that's good."

— Seth Emerson (@SethWEmerson) October 10, 2020

Meanwhile, the Tide’s traditionally stout defense has been pretty inconsistent, particularly defending the pass. Lapses and misreads haven’t slowed Bama’s success on the field, but have played a part in the team going just 1-2 against the spread so far.

Quarterback Mac Jones is building a Heisman résumé this season in part, because he’s had to keep the scoring up for Alabama.

Eye of the Tiger on the Over

Another fascinating SEC matchup kicks off at 3:30 p.m. when LSU visits Florida. Totals aren’t released as early as spreads and odds, but watch out for when this one drops.

Under Dan Mullen, the perception of the Gators has completely flipped. Not long ago, UF was almost entirely reliant on its defense to keep it in games, but the offense has flourished since Mullen’s arrival and playmakers are coming out of the woodwork this year. Florida has hit the over in every game it’s played this season, and combined with Texas A&M this past Saturday to do so again by 20 points.

#LSU defensive coordinator Bo Pelini leaves the field after the #Tigers' loss to #Missouri this afternoon. #Mizzou won 45-41. pic.twitter.com/JwrlYgCcDj

— Hilary Scheinuk (@hscheinukphoto) October 10, 2020

After all of the personnel turnover on and off-the-field, LSU’s regression from last season’s championship run was expected. Blowing out Vanderbilt a couple of weeks ago might have given the Tigers an extended benefit of doubt, but after this week, it’s clear that Vandy is back to cream puff status and LSU’s defense is just not good.

Defensive coordinator Bo Pelini watched his unit give up 45 points to Missouri on Saturday, and the two sides blew the closing point total of 53 out of the water with a 45-41 final score.

With inept Vanderbilt as an outlier, LSU has hit the over in its other two games. Florida should be ultra-motivated at home to respond to a disappointing loss against the Aggies, and LSU only has its offense to lean on to stay in games.

Under-the-Radar Matchup of the Week

Louisiana has been an interesting follow this year after its season-opening shocker against Iowa State and subsequent presence in the AP Top 25.

After upsetting the Cyclones, the No. 21 Ragin’ Cajuns proceeded to go 0-2 ATS against Georgia State and Georgia Southern, and won those two games by a combined five points. On Wednesday, they take on a Coastal Carolina team that has the ninth-highest yards per play average in the country on offense, and is 27th in yards allowed per play on defense.

The Chanticleers also have the fourth most efficient quarterback in the country in Grayson McCall. This season, the redshirt freshman is completing nearly 67-percent of his passes and averaging 11.6 yards per attempt. Louisiana opened as a 6.5-point favorite at home.