Week 9 College Football Upset Picks

• With only one game between ranked opponents on the Week 9 slate, the board is ripe for some underdogs to pull off a victory
• In this article we’ll be looking at Houston, Missouri & Rutgers who all have a great chance for an outright win
• See the odds for these games and analysis on the potential upsets below

We’re just a week away from all of FBS football being in season, and with that comes potential for even more weekly upsets.

Last Saturday the Big Ten returning to the fray brought us Indiana’s 36-35 stunner over Penn State – their first win over a top ten program since 1987 – which will be remembered for Michael Penix’s two-point conversion dive.

Coincidentally, the Hoosiers now find themselves heading into Piscataway as the double-digit favorite against a Rutgers team coming off their first Big Ten win in nearly three years.

Smells like an upset is a brewing.

#17 Indiana vs Rutgers Week 9 Odds

All odds as of Oct. 30 at William Hill Sportsbook

Letdown Spot for IU on the Road

The wildest part of the Hoosiers win last week comes while looking at the team stats vs the Nittany Lions. IU was out-gained 488-211 in total yards, 250-41 on the ground, 238-170 through the air, and only had 19:35 time of possession.

Penn State shot themselves in the foot with penalties and three turnovers, leaving the door open for Penix’s wild stretch into the end zone to end it.

Now, Tom Allen’s squad must overcome the emotional and physical drain Penn State was to hit the Garden State and play perennial doormat Rutgers…who might not be the doormat of the Big Ten East anymore.

The Scarlet Knights looked downright competent in Greg Schiano’s first game back on the sideline, as Isaih Pacheco led the offense with 98 yards and two touchdowns in the 38-27 win. The defense consistently got pressure on Spartans QB Rocky Lombardi and ball hawked in the secondary.

From 2003-10 under Schiano (data from his first two seasons isn’t available), the Knights were 10-8-1 as a home underdog.

Combining that with the situation for the Hoosiers, take the points with Rutgers and sprinkle on that attractive +340 moneyline.

UCF vs Houston Week 9 Odds

Holgorsen Gets it Done at Home

As we can tell from the gargantuan 82.5 point total, there’s not much defense expected at TDECU Stadium as UCF hits the field vs the Cougars.

The Knights are also averaging 646.8 yards per game through their first five contests, which would be a new NCAA single-season record if they keep the pace up. Dillon Gabriel has also been near perfect at QB, as he’s put up 400 yards passing, five touchdowns and no INTs in three consecutive games.

The Cougars are coming off a workmanlike defeat of Navy last week, and the offense under Clayton Tune can keep pace with UCF.

Where Houston holds the advantage is on defense, who are coming off an incredibly disciplined outing holding the Midshipmen to 21 points. They’ve also held opponents to just a 26.9% success rate on third downs – and in a game where stops will be at a premium, one might be all you need.

So, contrary to the eye-popping stats the Knights are putting up, we’re gonna ride with Houston at home to pull off the upset outright.

Missouri vs #10 Florida Week 9 Odds

Missouri Should Hang With COVID-Affected Gators

If you feel like the offensive theatrics between Kyle Trask and Kyle Pitts haven’t been on our TVs in forever – you’d be correct as the Gators last game took place during their loss at Texas A&M on October 10th.

Dan Mullen infamously said postgame they need to “Pack the Swamp” for a homefield advantage after that defeat, and then the program was promptly shutdown for nearly three weeks due to a COVID outbreak.

The Tigers, meanwhile, have look much improved under first-year HC Eli Drinkwitz, and are 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season. The last time they went into the Swamp as a dougle-digit dog also led to a favorable outcome.

We aren’t privy to exact details on which Gators have been missing time due to a positive test or contract tracing quarantine, but it’s fair to say they probably won’t be too sharp when retaking the field Saturday night.

The Tigers unheralded defense has been sneaky good this season, with 17 passes defended and seven sacks, to go along with a 36.96% opponent success rate on 3rd downs – good for top 25 in the country.

Ride with the Tigers at +12.5 and sprinkle on the moneyline as we have no idea what product the Gators will be putting on the field.