2021 Big Ten Championship Game Odds – Michigan vs Iowa Picks and Preview

• No. 2 Michigan is a 10.5-point favorite over Iowa in the Big Ten championship game
• No. 13 Iowa has six straight wins against ranked opponents
• Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

No. 2 Michigan (11-1) is a 10.5-point favorite over Iowa in the Big Ten championship game at 8:00 pm Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind., on FOX. The Wolverines will secure a spot in their first CFP Final Four with a victory.

No. 13 Iowa (10-2) will play in it second Big Ten title game since the conference went to two divisions in 2011. The Hawkeyes fell to Michigan State 16-13 in 2015.

Michigan vs Iowa Odds

Odds from Barstool Sportsbook on Nov. 30

Michigan won the East Division in a tiebreaker over Ohio State with a 42-27 victory over the then-No. 2 Buckeyes as a 6.5-point home underdog last Saturday and will make its first appearance in the Big Ten title game. The Wolverines have a clear path to their CFP Final Four berth.

Iowa backed into the title game as the West Division winner when then-No. 14 Wisconsin, a seven-point favorite, lost at  Minnesota 23-13 on Saturday, The Hawkeyes stayed alive in the race with a 28-21 victory at Nebraska on Friday and finished one game ahead of Wisconsin, which beat Iowa 27-7 in Madison on Oct. 30.

The Victors’ March

Michigan remains a run-first program, and at times the Wolverines looked unstoppable on the ground in their 42-27 victory over Ohio State. All six of their touchdowns came on drives of at least 63 yards, and each of their four second-half possessions – 81, 78, 66 and 63 yards – ended with a touchdown run by Hassan Haskins, who had 169 yards and five touchdowns on 28 carries.

The Wolverines gouged the Buckeyes with 297 rushing yards on only 41 carries, an average of 7.2 yards per carry, with Blake Corum adding 87 on six carries. Haskins had 11 carries on their two fourth-quarter touchdown drive, gaining 63 on five carries on the final drive to push the lead back to 14 points after C.J. Stroud brought the Buckeyes within one score with 4:45 left.

Michigan is ninth in the FBS in rushing with an average of 224.9 yards per game and 19th in total offense at 451.2 yards per game. Baylor is the only FBS school with a higher rushing average, 227.4. The Wolverines’ 35 rushing touchdowns rank behind only triple-option teams Army (43) and Air Force (42).

Senior Haskins has 1,232 yards and 12 touchdowns rushing this season despite splitting time early in the season with sophomore Corum until Corum went down with a lower body injury on Nov. 6. Haskins has 106 carries for 571 yards and eight touchdowns in the last four games.

Hawkeyes Hang In

The Hawkeyes zoomed to No. 2 in the AP Top 25 when it reached 6-0 after a 23-20 comeback victory over Penn State, which lost quarterback Sean Clifford to in jury in the first half, before sputtering offensively in losses to Purdue and Wisconsin and a tight win over Northwestern.

Enter quarterback Alex Padilla, who started for Spencer Petras in the last three games while Petras nursed a shoulder injury suffered in the 27-7 to Wisconsin. Petras returned for the second half against Nebraska, and his 2-yard run capped a 76-yard drive for the winning touchdown against Nebraska. He is expected to start against the Wolverines.

Running back Tyler Goodson has 1,101 yards rushing and comes in off a career-high 156 yards in the win at Nebraska while running behind center Tyler Linderbaum, one of four finalists for the Rotary Lombardi Award and one of three finalists for the Outland Trophy.

For the Defense

Both teams play a stingy, physical defense. Iowa is 13th in the FBS in total defense, giving up an average of 315.7 yards per game, and Michigan is 14th and 319.2. Iowa is even better against the run, giving up 110 yards a game and 3.0 per carry. Michigan is 18 yards behind.

Michigan defensive end and All-American-to-be Aidan Richardson had three sacks against Ohio State and set school season record with 13.

He's a #B1GFootball honoree x2️⃣…Congrats @UMichFootball's Aidan Hutchinson! pic.twitter.com/92Mpi3HVCc

— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) November 30, 2021

Iowa has 28 takeaways, third in the FBS, and safety Dane Belton has a five of the Hawkeyes’ FBS-leading 22 interceptions. Bolton is tied for the FBS lead. The Hawkeyes’ school record for interceptions in a season is 23. Linebacker Jack Campbell is second in the Big Ten with 124 tackles.

B1G Football records last 5 years:

Ohio State 55-7 .887
Iowa 43-16 .729
Wisconsin 43-17 .717
Michigan 40-17 .701
Penn State 42-18 .700

— Irrational Hawkeye (@IrrationalHawk2) November 28, 2021

By the Numbers

The teams have only played twice since 2013. The Wolverines won 10-3 and covered the three-point number in their most recent meeting at home in 2019. Iowa won 14-13 as a 24-point underdog in Iowa City in 2016. Michigan is 10-2 ATS this season, 5-1 as a double-digit favorite. Iowa is 7-5 ATS, 2-1 as an underdog.

Stats worth nothing: Run-first Wisconsin had 166 rushing yards on 46 carries in its 27-7 win over Iowa. Wisconsin had 42 yards on 33 carries in a 38-17 loss to the Wolverines.

• The Pick: Michigan -10.5 (-110)