Iron Bowl Point Spread Dropped to Alabama -3, But Is Headed Back in Tide’s Direction

• No. 5 Alabama opened as a 4-point road favorite vs No. 15 Auburn in Saturday’s Iron Bowl (Nov. 30)
• The point spread got as low as -3 but is heading back in the Crimson Tide’s direction
• Bama’s offense has performed well with Mac Jones under center, while the Tigers have struggled offensively against elite competition

Rivalry Week is upon us and the stakes are high for No. 5 Alabama in their Iron Bowl showdown versus No. 15 Auburn (3:30 PM ET, Nov. 30). The Crimson Tide need a dominant performance and plenty of help to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive.

#5 Alabama vs #15 Auburn Odds

Odds taken Nov. 28

The Alabama vs Auburn odds opened Bama -4. It went as low as -3, but has rebounded to -3.5 and there a handful of reasons why it’s likely to trend in Bama’s direction.

The Tigers have struggled versus strong competition this season, and the expected drop off from Tua Tagovailoa to Mac Jones may have been a bit exaggerated given the rest of the talent on Alabama’s roster.

Alabama is Still an Elite Offense

Mac Jones has impressed in limited action, albeit against inferior competition. He’s completed 28-of-34 passes in two starts, for 510 yards, 6 touchdowns, and no picks. The sophomore QB has a 190.6 passer rating, which, if extrapolated over an entire season, would be top-5 in the Nation.

Starting today in place of injured QB Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones has thrown 3 Pass TD in the first half, giving him 6 passing touchdowns through his first 2 career starts.

Tagovailoa is the only other Alabama QB in the last 15 seasons to have 6 Pass TD in his first two starts pic.twitter.com/POlBxSOzv6

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 23, 2019

He may be inexperienced, but don’t forget, he has some of the best receiving options in the country. Three of the Tide’s wide receivers are projected 2020 first-round picks, and Jerry Jeudy is a top-3 selection on Todd McShay’s latest big board.

Bama ranks fourth in points per game (46.8), eighth in total offense (510.4 yards per game), and has put up a combined 114 points in Jones’ two starts.

Tigers Lack Bite vs Top-25 programs

Auburn ranks fourth in defensive efficiency, but has struggled to put up points versus top-25 opposition. In four games against currently-ranked teams, they’ve managed to exceed 20 points just once. They’re 0-3 against top-12 teams, losing on the road to Florida and LSU, and at home to Georgia.

Auburn QB Bo Nix in 2019:

Vs ranked opponents- 49%, 6 TD, 6 INT

Vs unranked opponents- 66%, 8 TD, 0 INT

— Cole Cubelic (@colecubelic) November 26, 2019

Freshman QB Bo Nix has struggled versus top-25 opposition this season completing less than 50% of his passes (49.7%) with as many interceptions as touchdowns (6). When facing college football’s elite, his average yards-per-attempt dips nearly two full yards compared to versus non-ranked teams. His most recent performances against LSU and Georgia should be especially concerning, as he failed to reach five yards per attempt in both outings.

Why the Line Could Move in the Tide’s Favor

This game is much more important to Bama than Auburn, and given the Tigers’ offensive struggles versus quality competition there could be some line movement in the Tide’s favor, especially with Alabama being the more public team.

As for the total, it has already dropped a half-point from 50 to 49.5, in large part due to Auburn’s elite defense and mediocre offense. That combination should be enough to scare bettors away from the over so don’t be surprised if an under play gains further traction.

As bad as Auburn has looked offensively versus top-ranked programs, they did hold LSU and Georgia to season-lows in yards per play, and surrendered 13 fewer points to LSU than anyone else this season.