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Best Alabama vs Michigan Same-Game Parlay to Bet for the Rose Bowl

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in College Football

Updated Jan 1, 2024 · 5:00 AM PST

Michigan is a 2-point pick over Alabama in the Rose Bowl.
Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) warms-up on the field Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023, during the game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
  • The Michigan Wolverines meet the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Rose Bowl with a berth in the CFP final on the line
  • Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh is 2-7 straight up in bowl game appearances
  • See a +820 Wolverines vs Crimson Tide same-game parlay for this CFP semifinal on New Year’s Day

It’s the unbeaten #1 Michigan Wolverines (13-0, 8-5 ATS) squaring off against the #4 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1, 9-4 ATS) in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day, as these two college football superpowers battle in the CFP semifinals. This clash comes exactly four years to the day of their previous meeting, when Alabama whipped Michigan 35-16 in the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day 2020.

This Wolverines vs Crimson Tide SGP is banking on resurgent Alabama covering as a 2-point underdog and continuing the resurgence that has seen the Tide go 11-0 straight up and 8-3 against the spread while running the table to the SEC title.

Alabama vs Michigan Same-Game Parlay Picks

Pick Odds
JJ McCarthy under 190.5 passing yards -118
Jermaine Burton anytime touchdown +155
Alabama +2 -110
Same-Game Parlay Odds +820

The first leg is for Michigan QB JJ McCarthy to fall short of his total 190.5 passing yards total. Then it’s counting on Alabama QB Jalen Milroe and WR Jermaine Burton to continue their chemistry to create a Burton anytime TD at +155. Finally, add in the underdog Crimson Tide, 3-1 SU in four meetings with Michigan, maintaining that mastery of the Wolverines while covering as 2-point underdogs at odds of -110.

 

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Odds as of Dec. 31 at ESPN BET.

The three-leg combination on this same-game parlay offers a betting line of +820. A successful $10 play would deliver a payday of $81.97.

Alabama vs Michigan Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: JJ McCarthy Under 190.5 Passing Yards

There’s been a serious late-season downturn in the passing numbers for Michigan QB JJ McCarthy. In his last four games, he’s never gone over 148 yards through the air. He’s thrown for one TD in the past six games. Through the Wolverines’ first nine games of the campaign, McCarthy was good for 200+ yards passing in seven of them.

It appears that as the games have grown bigger, Michigan is choosing to rely more and more on the school’s vaunted running attack of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. McCarthy threw just eight times and accounted for 60 yards through the air in the win over Penn State. He had 148 passing yards in the Ohio State victory and 147 during the Big Ten title win over Iowa.

It’s hard to imagine McCarthy getting the opportunity to put up big passing numbers in this game.

Crimson Tide vs Wolverines SGP Pick #2: Jermaine Burton Anytime Touchdown

Georgia transfer Jermaine Burton’s receiving yardage totals have seen some serious ebbs and flows this season. He went for 105 yards against Chattanooga and 107 vs Auburn. But in the SEC Championship game against his old school, the Bulldogs limited Burton to 28 yards in receptions.

Burton also doesn’t pile up the targets. He’s caught more than three passes just three times in 12 games this season. However, what Burton does do with regularity is take it to the house.

He’s leading the Crimson Tide with eight touchdown receptions. Burton caught two balls against Georgia and one was good for a TD. He’s scored in each of the last three games, four of the past five and five out of the last seven.

Alabama vs Michigan Same-Game Parlay Pick #3: Crimson Tide Spread

Ask any college football coach what it’s like to go up against Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban’s scheme on game day and they’ll tell you it’s a hard day’s work. During the regular season, it’s a daunting enough challenge. In this instance, he’s been given a month to study and prepare a game plan for his opponent.

No coach is more schooled in the challenges of the CFP than Saban. He’s been in eight of them, coaching 14 games, reaching the final six times and winning the title three times. Alabama hasn’t lost a CFP semifinal since 2014.

By contrast, Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh is 2-7 SU in bowl game appearances. The Wolverines are 0-2 SU and ATS in CFP games, losing by a combined margin of 85-56.

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