Appalachian State vs Louisiana Sun Belt Championship Odds And Picks

• The Appalachian State Mountaineers are 2.5-point favorites over the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns in the 2021 Sun Belt Conference Championship game
• Appalachian State is 10-2 on the season and 8-2 in their last ten games versus Louisiana; that includes a 45-38 home win in 2019 (last Sun Belt Championship).
• See the odds, breakdown, and betting advice below

The Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-2, 7-1) just keep winning games. Considering that they even in the Sun Belt Championship is borderline miraculous as they have won three games by a touchdown or less this year. Meanwhile, Louisiana (11-1, 8-0) is ranked #24 overall after winning 11 straight games.

Appalachian State holds a 8-2 record in the series with Louisiana. However, Louisiana has won the last two between the teams.

Louisiana has found a way to beat Appalachian State twice in a row. Even with a 2.5 to 3 point spread on the road, the Mountaineers are carrying only 16% of the betting money ATS but 66% of the moneyline. The Mountaineers are 3-1 on the moneyline on the road in the last four games at Louisiana.

Appalachian State vs Louisiana Odds

Odds as of December 1st at DraftKings

Saturday’s game is set for a 3:30 pm ET kickoff at Cajun Stadium. Partly to Mostly Sunny conditions and temperatures in the 70’s are in the forecast. ESPN is carrying the broadcast. After opening up at 52, the total has stayed mostly around 52 to 53  for the majority of the week.

Depending upon the sportsbook, the opening line showed Appalachian State opening around a field goal favorite. This line has not budged much.

In terms of public betting, 86% of the public bets are still on the Under even with sun and warm conditions expected.

Appalachian State and the Bounce Back

Things did not look too good for Appalachian State especially after they got routed by Louisiana on the road midway into the season. They stood at 4-2 after that 41-13 shellacking and had to play an undefeated and 14th ranked Coastal Carolina. That is when the tide turned. After that close win, they rattled off five more wins in convincing fashion.

Even with a very good offense (19th in points for), Appalachian State could have some issues against Louisiana.

Appalachian State 13-41 Louisiana

Success Rates:
Appalachian State: 29%
Louisiana: 46%

Net Predicted Points Added:
Chase Brice: 1.93
Levi Lewis: 6.77#CFBData #APP vs. #ULL pic.twitter.com/gXazSPNjmJ

— Staturdays | Sports Stats + Analytics (@Staturdays) October 15, 2021

The offensive line had some issues as Louisiana’s defense was relentless in their only meeting of the season. Since then, the Mountaineers have been a completely different team. Chase Brice has been solid throwing 22 touchdowns to just ten interceptions. The duo of Cameron Peoples and Nate Noel has racked up nearly 1800 yards and 17 touchdowns.

In scoring offense, Appalachian State has tallied 35.8 points per game. Their defense is ranked #14 and has allowed just 18.9 points per game.

Louisiana Feel Any Pressure?

Will Louisiana be able to summon up one more great effort? The theory is that they could depending on how well their defense starts. Though they average just 31.2 points per game offensively, the Ragin’ Cajuns yield just 18.5 points per game.

The Ragin’ Cajuns  allow 143.2 yards rushing per contest on defense. Their passing defense is good as that yields just over 200 yards per game. Here is an interesting tidbit.

During his four-year tenure at Louisiana, Billy Napier's Ragin' Cajuns are 11-4-1 ATS w/ seven outright wins in 16 games as underdogs. They've won outright in both home 'dog situations. They're +3 Saturday vs. App St. despite spanking the Mountaineers 41-13 at same venue on 10/2.

— Brian Edwards Sports (@vegasbedwards) December 1, 2021

Few teams run all that well against Louisiana, they run and nearly 40 times a game averaging 3.8 yards per carry. The problem comes down to can Levi Lewis do it one more time. They escaped against Louisiana-Monroe last week narrowly winning by five points.

Appalachian State vs Louisiana Betting Trends and Pick

As we mentioned previously, Appalachian State once dominated this series. They won the first eight before Billy Napier and Louisiana turned the tables in the last two.

Against the spread has been pretty good for both teams. Appalachian State is 8-4 and Louisiana is 6-6. However, the Ragin’ Cajuns answer the bell unlike most teams Appalachian State have faced.

• That Louisiana 11-4-1 as underdogs ATS looms large.

The Ragin’ Cajuns want to send Billy Napier to Florida with a resounding win. With Lewis and their ground game, they have the ability to do so.

The only question may be will it be a closer game or not. Both teams may tend very close to the over/under of 53. Louisiana will not only cover the spread but win a close one outright Saturday.

• Pick: Louisiana +2.5 (-110)