Betting on Clemson to Miss the College Football Playoff Pays at +425

• Clemson & Alabama have the best odds to make the 2019-20 College Football Playoff
• Both teams return their starting QBs in Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) & Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama)
• Ohio State is a threat to win the Big Ten for the third straight year with transfer Justin Fields as the starting QB

I’m not a fan of hyperbole. Too often, you’ll read hot takes where some wager is a “lock” or the “best bet ever”.  Any moderately sharp bettor can see right through such unfounded bravado.

With that said, I  want to make this next statement with total clarity: I am struggling to come up with a number that would make betting against Clemson to make the College Football Playoff good value.

As the College Football Playoff Odds Tracker shows, Clemson and Alabama have had the best odds to make the four-team showdown since the odds first came out. But of late, Clemson is separating from even the Tide. Online sportsbooks give the Tigers an 86.5% chance to make the CFP.

Odds To Make/Miss 2020 College Football Playoff

Odds taken 7/18/2019.

With Dabo Swinney roaming the sidelines, Trevor Lawrence as QB1, and a schedule that includes not only the oh-so-soft ACC, but also non-conference cupcakes Wofford and Charlotte, it’s not rocket science why oddsmakers are so high on Clemson.

Some sites still have the Tigers at -300 or -400 to make the CFP, which is a good investment in my view. As for the odds, the fact that they are so bullish on Clemson has created value on two other teams, in particular.

Bulldogs In Tough To Reach CFP

I love the fact that betting against the Georgia Bulldogs this season will only cost me -140.  Kirby Smart has a great team, led by an experienced QB in Jake Fromm.  This isn’t meant to be a slight on the program, but to get through the SEC and into the CFP, you need to be more than great, you need to be lucky as well.

"Ready to kick this thing off" 💪🏈#SECMD19 #GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/MxOwsTNcBy

— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) July 18, 2019

The schedule for Georgia doesn’t shape up nicely.  They face another potential playoff team in Notre Dame early in the season.  They also go on to face Auburn, Florida, Tennessee and quirky Georgia Tech all on the road.

Of their six toughest games on the schedule, only Texas A&M is at home.  More importantly, even if they navigate through that minefield and make the SEC title game, another date with Alabama looms, in all likelihood.

PICK: Georgia to Miss the CFP (-140)

Would Third Straight Big Ten Title Get OSU In?

Another reason I don’t like Georgia’s chances is a reason I like the Buckeyes’.  Justin Fields transferred from the Bulldogs, hurting their depth at QB, while handing a playoff contender a top-shelf recruit ready to contribute from day one.

Offensive guru Ryan Day is the new head coach in Columbus and should be able to unleash Fields in a way that is sure to catch the attention of the rest of the Big Ten, similar to his work with Dwayne Haskins.

https://twitter.com/OhioStateFB/status/1143263778458308609?s=20

In addition to their new coach and QB, the Buckeyes have two other players definitely worthy of your attention in DE Chase Young and CB Jeffrey Okudah.  Both are projected to be top-10 picks in the 2020 NFL Draft, with Young in particular getting high praise.

Coming on the heels of top-three selections Joey and Nick Bosa, Young could be another game changer to help Ohio State through a tough schedule and into the four team playoff.

PICK: Ohio State to Make the CFP (+160)