College Football Picks for Week 5 – Ole Miss and Florida State on Upset Alert
- Top 25s Kentucky and Wake Forest have upset potential vs Ole Miss and Wake Forest
- California also has the tools to handle Washington State as moneyline underdogs
- Read below for betting odds, analysis and college football picks for Week 5
Betting the right underdog can be the key to a very profitable College Football Saturday, and there’s no shortage of value on the board for our college football picks today.
Week 5 offers more upset possibilities as teams enter conference play, which because of past performance, can offer a historical perspective. Road dog Kentucky has had no trouble without star running back Chris Rodriguez and Wake Forest has had good success against FSU. Under-the-radar California has its best team in several years.
Here are three college football picks at plus-money to consider for Week 5, along with my analysis for each pick.
California vs Washington State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| California Bears | +4 (-108) | +160 | Over 53 (-113) |
| Washington State Cougars | -4- (113) | -200 | Under 53 (-108) |
All odds as of Oct 1 at Barstool Sportsbook.
Pick No. 1: California over Washington State
The Golden Bears ran all over Arizona in a lopsided 49-21 victory home victory a week ago, when freshman Jaydn Ott rushed for 275 yards and three touchdowns, including blow-bys of 73- and 72-yards. His 73-yarder came on the second play from scrimmage, although the Bears did not put the game away until quarterback Jack Plummer’s 37-yard touchdown pass pn the first play of the fourth quarter.
Highest single-game grade by an FBS RB in PFF College Era (since 2014)
🥇 Kareem Hunt, Toledo (2016 vs Western Michigan) – 99.9
🥈 Jaydn Ott, California (2022 vs Arizona) – 99.1
🥉 Leonard Fournette, LSU (2015 vs Auburn) – 95.7
Not bad for a true freshman 🤯@CalFootball pic.twitter.com/80s7iBsLwq
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 26, 2022
Ott, 6’0, has six touchdowns, two receiving, and he adds an explosive backfield option the Bears have not had recently. Plummer, a senior transfer from Purdue, likewise provides a steady hand at quarterback, something the Bears also have been missing. Plummer completed 68.5 percent of his passes for 864 yards and seven touchdowns with no interceptions while starting the first four games for the Boilermakers last season before losing his job to Aidan O’Connell.
Cal needs to protect better. Plummer was sacked 12 times in the first three games, although he was not sacked a week ago.
Relive each of our 7️⃣ TDs from yesterday’s dub 📹 pic.twitter.com/KkFK7Bx08o
— Cal Football (@CalFootball) September 25, 2022
The Bears’ 24-17 loss to Notre Dame two weeks ago was marred by officiating error that incorrectly ruled Cal was offside on a Notre Dame missed field goal., negating the miss. The Irish scored a touchdown two plays later.
Washington State still loves its Air Raid offense behind quarterback Cam Ward, but the Cougars enter after blowing a 34-22 lead in the final four minutes of a 44-41 home loss to Oregon last Saturday. The Cougars’ best victory came in a 17-14 win against sub-par Wisconsin.
Cal is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings, 3-1 ATS in the last four in the Palouse. The Bears are among the best plus-money college football picks on Saturday.
- Pick: California ML (+160, 2 units)
Kentucky vs Ole Miss Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky Wildcats | +6.5 (-110) | +200 | Over 54.5 (-113) |
| Ole Miss Rebels | -6.5 (110) | -250 | Under 54.5 (-108) |
Pick No. 2: Kentucky over Ole Miss
Without All-American running back candidate Chris Rodriguez, the Wildcats have turned to their 17th-ranked defense to remain undefeated heading into this one. They have given up an average of 272 yards per game, and can be excused a 31-23 victory over Northern Illinois last week while looking ahead to the resumption of the SEC season.
The clear-cut top-3 QBs in 2023 class are CJ Stroud, Bryce Young and Will Levis. Tyler Van Dyke and Anthony Richardson are loaded with traits but have disappointed. Talking to NFL scouts, these QB’s are rising fast: BYU Jaren Hall, UT Hendon Hooker and Fresno St Jake Haener.
— Todd McShay (@McShay13) September 27, 2022
Kentucky opened SEC play with an impressive 26-16 victory at Florida as a 6-point underdog in the second week of the season. The Wildcats throttled Gator quarterback Anthony Richardson, limiting him to 14 of 35 passing for 143 yards and two interceptions.
NFL prospect Will Levis has passed for 300 yards in three of the Wildcats’ first four games, and he had 303 yards and four touchdowns against NIU, and early indications are that Rodriguez (1,378 yards rushing in 2021) will return from his four-game suspension.
Whoa, what a throw Jaxson Dart! pic.twitter.com/NNeYGn3D63
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) September 24, 2022
USC transfer Jaxson Dart has taken over for Matt Corral as the full-time starter and has kept Lane Kiffin’s offense humming, but the Rebels’ banged-up defense gave up 457 yards in a 35-27 victory over Tulsa. Ole Miss won and covered as a seven-point dog in a 42-41 win in Lexington a year ago, only the teams’ second meeting since 2011. The last two games have been decided by four points total, and the total has been under in Ole Miss’s last six SEC games.
The Week 5 college football betting splits for this matchup are telling. Only 56% of bets but 79% of the money is on the Kentucky ML. It seems sharps are all over this play in their college football picks.
- Pick: Kentucky ML (+200, 2 units)
Wake Forest vs Florida State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wake Forest Demon Deacons | +6.5 (-109) | +205 | Over 65.5 (-112) |
| Florida State Seminoles | -6.5 (-112) | -265 | Under 65.5 (-109) |
Pick No. 3: Wake Forest over Florida State
Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman has passed for xxx yards and xxx touchdowns in his three starts after missing the season opener following a surgical procedure in August.
We have FIVE games between ranked teams next weekend 🍿 pic.twitter.com/lzHZMtPHlv
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 25, 2022
Since Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman was cleared to play after undergoing surgery to remove a blood clot in August, the Demon Deacons have put up the kind of offensive numbers that made them the third-highest scoring team (41.0 ppg) in Division I a year ago.
The Demon Deacons (3-1) have scored 45, 37 and 51 points in Hartman’s three starts, and he is ninth in Division in passing efficiency after cutting down on his interceptions. Wake Forest’s plan is to turn Hartman lose and outscore opponents, and it has worked going on two seasons.
Hartman had a career-high six touchdowns in a 51-45 double overtime home loss to Clemson. He has completed 64 percent of his passes for 962 yards and 13 touchdowns against two interceptions in his three games. The numbers compare favorably to his breakout 2021 season — 4,228 yards, 39 touchdowns and 14 picks.
Sam Hartman vs Clemson today:
🎩 20/29
🎩 337 yards
🎩 6 TDs pic.twitter.com/e7fvlGTFgU— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 24, 2022
Resurgent Florida State (4-0) is off to its best start since 2015. After winning squeakers against LSU and Louisville, the Seminoles routed Boston College 44-14 last week behind quarterback Jordan Travis’s career-high 321 yards.
Wake Forest won the ACC Atlantic Division last season and needs a victory to climb back into the race — Clemson, FSU and Syracuse are 2-0 in the division. The Demon Deacons have the weapons to do it.
Wake Forest is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five, 6-2 SU in its last eight on the road and 4-2 ATS in its last six away. FSU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven and 1-4-1 ATS in its last six against Wake. Take advantage of the underdog value in this betting line.
Pick: Wake Forest ML (+205, 1 unit)
Last week: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS. Season: 15-13 ATS
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Jack has covered college and professional sports for various Arizona media outlets since the 1980s and has written for the Associated Press, USA Today and Baseball America, among others. He staffed the 2015-17 World Series and has staffed four Super Bowls.
