College Football Upset Picks for Week 1 – Florida State, Miami (OH) & UTSA Have Value
- Florida State, UTSA and Miami (OH) are live underdogs in Week 1 of the 2022 college football season
- Florida State enters off a 600-yard game, while UTSA and Miami have QBs who know the drill
- Read below for betting odds, analysis and upset picks for college football Week 1
Florida State, UTSA and Miami Ohio are live underdogs in the college football odds in Week 1 of the 2022 season. The Seminoles ran up 638 yards in total offense against outclassed Duquesne last week to kick off Mike Norvell’s third season in Tallahassee. LSU provides a stiffer test, but the Tigers are in rebuild mode.
UTSA quarterback Frank Harris and Miami (OH) quarterback Brett Gabbert have the credentials to match Houston’s Clayton Tune and Kentucky’s Will Levis. The MAC is never afraid to pull an early-season upset.
Here are betting odds, analysis and three upset picks to consider for college football Week 1.
Florida State vs LSU Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State Seminoles | +3.5 (-114) | +130 | Over 51.5 (-106) |
| LSU Tigers | -3.5 (-107) | -165 | Under 51.5 (-115) |
Odds from Barstool Sportsbook on Aug. 31.
Upset Pick No. 1: FSU Spoils Kelly’s debut
Offensive-minded Mike Norvell inherited a mess when he arrived in Tallahassee in pandemic-shortened 2020 after four consecutive winning seasons at Memphis, including two in which the Tigers reached as high as No. 16 in the AP Top 25 and averaged 500 yards total offense and 42 points per game.
It has taken two seasons, but Norvell has the skill position players to get his offense cranking again, and the CFB win totals odds agree. The Seminoles piled up 638 yards in a 40-7 victory over over-matched Duquesne last week, when three running backs — Treshaun Ward, Trey Benson and Lawrance Toafili — had 100 yards rushing and quarterback Jordan Travis threw for 207.
Not 1, not 2, but – for the first time in program history (and first time by an @ACCFootball team since 2018) –
3️⃣ 100-yard rushers in the same game#NoleFamily | #KeepCLIMBing pic.twitter.com/H2uP7TvCnm
— FSU Football (@FSUFootball) August 29, 2022
LSU is starting fresh after luring Brian Kelly away from Notre Dame with a 10-year, $10 million contract that includes a $500,000 bonus each year the Tigers are bowl eligible. This will not be the year. While the odds converter gives Florida State a 43 percent chance, the game is much more a tossup.
The Tigers were 6-7 a year ago, their second straight non-winning season after Joe Burrow’s national championship run in 2019 and are at the top of the NCAAF strength of schedule rankings. Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels is expected to win the quarterback job on a team that has five starters returning. Leading rusher John Emory will not play while sitting out a two-game academic suspension.
The Tigers have the benefit of being the unknown in this one, but the game is New Orleans, which will negate some of the home-field advantage. Kelly was 3-2 SU and 2-3 against Florida State while at Notre Dame, the last a 41-38 overtime victory in Tallahassee a year ago.
- Upset Pick: Florida State (+130)
Houston vs UTSA Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Cougars | -4.5 (-110) | -190 | Over 62 (-110) |
| UTSA Roadrunners | +4.5 (-110) | +155 | Under 62 (-110) |
Upset Pick No. 2: The Roadrunners Stop Houston
Two favorites for conference contention — Houston in the American Athletic and UTSA in Conference USA — meet in a game that has greater implications for the Roadrunners than it does for Houston.
This is one of two chances for UTSA to show it can play with the big guys, along with the visit to Texas on Sept. 17. At +155 on the moneyline, UTSA has a 39 percent implied win probability at home, where it has won its last nine.
-Frank Harris: 566 yards rushing 5.2 YPC 6 TD’s
-Clayton Tune: 154 yards rushing 1.5 YPC 2 TD’s
Overall TD’s:
-Tune: 32 TD’s
-Harris: 34 TD’s #BirdsUp🤙🏻— Jesse (@SARoadrunner89) August 22, 2022
Both have veteran, quality quarterbacks. Houston senior Clayton Tune, who benefits from coach Dana Holgorsen’s let-er-rip approach, threw for 3,544 yards, 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions a year ago. Dual-purpose UTSA senior Frank Harris passed for 3,177 yards and 27 touchdowns with six picks while rushing for 566 yards in a more balanced offense.
The Roadrunners opened 2021 with a seven-point victory at Power 5 Illinois en route to a 12-win season last year. They may not reach 12 this year, but they will start with No. 1 against a Houston team that lost its opener a year ago to Texas Tech.
- Upset Pick: UTSA (+155)
Miami (OH) vs Kentucky Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Redhawks | +16.5 (-112) | +550 | Over 54 (-112) |
| Kentucky Wildcats | -16.5 (-109) | -1000 | Under 54 (-109) |
Upset Pick No. 3: Gabbert Wins QB Matchup
Kentucky has a solid 1-2 punch in quarterback Will Levis and running back Chris Rodriguez, but Rodriguez is “unavailable” for the game, head coach Mark Stoops announced this week. The line moved one point toward Miami after the news, and both teams are ranked in the top half of their leagues in the conference title odds.
Levis passed for 2,826 yards with 24 touchdowns as the Wildcats won their first six before a three-game losing streak against Georgia, Mississippi State and Tennessee, but his 13 interceptions tied for the most in the SEC. Rodriguez is the SEC’s leading returning rusher and would become the school’s career-leading rusher with a 1,150-yard season (he had 1,378 yards a year ago). He pleaded guilty after being arrested for DUI in July.
🚨BREAKING NEWS🚨@BrettGabbert has been listed on the Manning Award Watch List‼️#RiseUpRedHawks | 🎓🏆 pic.twitter.com/FEivfJiXhF
— Miami Football (@MiamiOHFootball) August 22, 2022
Miami quarterback Brett Gabbert, the brother of former NFL first-round pick Blaine Gabbert, ranked No. 14 in the FBS in passing efficiency a year ago, when he passed for 2.648 yards and 26 touchdowns against six interceptions despite missing four games with knee and thumb injuries.
Many of the offensive components return for the Redhawks, who are among the favorites to win the MAC. Miami may catch the Wildcats looking ahead to the SEC opener at Florida next week, although as a longshot at +550 on the moneyline, they have only a 15.4% implied win probability.
- Upset Pick: Miami (OH) (+550)
Jack has covered college and professional sports for various Arizona media outlets since the 1980s and has written for the Associated Press, USA Today and Baseball America, among others. He staffed the 2015-17 World Series and has staffed four Super Bowls.
