Upcoming Match-ups

College Football Upset Predictions for Week 2

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Football

Updated Sep 9, 2022 · 2:05 PM PDT

Pittsburgh Panthers quarterback Kedon Slovis passes the ball
Sep 1, 2022; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Panthers quarterback Kedon Slovis (9) passes the ball against the West Virginia Mountaineers during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
  • Missouri, Boston College and Pittsburgh are live underdogs in CFB Week 2
  • The Tigers were bet down from 9.5-point underdogs to +7.5 vs Kansas State
  • Read below for betting odds, analysis and upset predictions for college football Week 2

SEC Missouri and ACC Boston College and Pitt are slight road underdogs in College Football Week 2 against teams that they have had success against in the past.

BC limited Virginia Tech to three points in a victory in Chestnut Hill a year ago, and Pitt won the so-called Johnny Majors classic — Majors coached at both places —  by putting up 41 points on Tennessee in Knoxville last season.

Here are my three college football upset predictions for Week 2:

Missouri vs Kansas Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Missouri Tigers +7.5 (-114) +235 Over 57 (-110)
Kansas State Wildcats -7.5 (-107) -315 Under 57 (-110)

All odds via a Barstool Sportsbook promo code on Sept. 8.

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Upset Prediction No. 1: Missouri, SEC Keep Rolling

The premier conference in the country is 14-1 SU and 10-5 ATS after the first two weeks, and this match presents another opportunity for the SEC to assert itself — even if the Tigers have an implied win probability of only 29.9 percent.

Florida, which has the only league underdog so far this season, covered a small spread in its home victory over No. 7 Utah last Saturday to make the league 14-0. LSU was the only loser, falling 24-23 to Florida State when it had a potential game-tying extra point blocked on the final play.

Missouri quarterback Brady Cook, whose first start was in the Texas Bowl last season, threw for 201 yards and touchdowns and rushed for 61 yards and another score in the 52-24 victory over Louisiana Tech last week, a game the Tigers led 38-10 after three quarters. A Tigers’ defense remade through the transfer portal had three first-half interceptions.

Kansas State added Nebraska transfer quarterback Adrian Martinez to complement running back Deuce Vaughn this season. While Vaughn had 126 yards and a touchdown in a 34-0 victory over FCS South Dakota in the home opener, Martinez was not the answer at Nebraska. His decision-making is a question mark, as his touchdown to interception ratio (45/30) attests, and he has lost 16 career fumbles. The NCAA record is 21.

There was plenty of line movement on this game early. Kansas State opened as a 9.5-point favorite, and the early total was 54.5.

  • Upset Pick: Missouri ML (+235)

Boston College vs Virginia Tech Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Boston College Eagles +3 (-110) +120 Over 46 (-112)
Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-110) -150 Under 46 (-109)

Upset Prediction No. 2: BC Regains Its Footing

A veteran Boston College group led by quarterback Phil Jurkovec will take advantage of a Virginia Tech squad that is experiencing the expected growing pains that come with a new coach Brent Fry (a former Hokie GA who was the defensive coordinator at Penn State last year) and a new quarterback, Marshall transfer Grant Wells.

The Hokies lost their season opener 20-17 at Old Dominion when the Monarchs scored the winning touchdown with 33 seconds remaining. Wells threw four interceptions, including one that set up the Monarchs’ winning drive, and the Hokies had five turnovers and committed 14 penalties against a team that has one winning record (2016) since joining the FBS in 2014.

Boston College did not exactly spring out of the gate, blowing a 21-12 lead in a 22-21 home loss to Rutgers. Jurkovec, who missed half of 2021 because of an injury, was 23 of 41 with three touchdowns and two picks. All skill position Eagles return this season, although neither team is expected to make much noise in the ACC according to the conference title odds. 

Both teams enter ticked off. BC has a better chance to do something about it. BC is 8-4 ATS on the road against the Hokies.

  • Upset Pick: Boston College ML (+120)

 

Tennessee vs Pitt Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Tennessee Volunteers -6.5 (-112) -245 Over 66.5 (-112)
Pitt Panthers +6.5 (+109) +190 Under 66.5 (-109)

Upset Prediction No. 3: Pitt Wins QB Battle

New Pitt quarterback Kedon Slovis is no Kenny Pickett, but he reads defenses well, hangs in the pocket and has an accurate arm. Slovis, who worked with Kurt Warner in high school, has not equaled his breakout 2019 freshman season — 3,502 yards passing, 30 touchdowns, nine picks,  71.9 completion percentage — because of injuries the last two seasons.

Pitt will move the ball against Josh Heupel’s offensive-minded Vols behind quarterback Hendon Hooker. The Vols mauled Ball State 59-10 in their home opener last week, but the Panthers’ 38-31 victory in the backyard brawl over West Virginia was more impressive.

The Vols’ defense ranked 90th in Division I last season and struggled against the pass. Pitt is 5-2 as a home dog in its last seven, and they have solid value in the CFB odds to pull off the Week 2 upset.

  • Upset Pick: Pitt ML (+190)
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