College Football Week 9 Upset Picks: Real Longshots Edition

• Last week was our worst week on record. Sorry!
• This week, we’re just picking Georgia to lose on the road again
• No, this is not *just* wishful thinking

Listen, part of tuning into an upset picker is understanding that we’re making low percentage plays. Usually it works out for us in aggregate, but last week it didn’t. We also missed out on the Ohio State upset, which would have been deeply satisfying.

College Football Week 8 Upset Picks Results

Yikes. None of our picks came in last week, which leaves us down three units for the week and up 4.35 units for the season. Week 8 was the first week in which none of our upset picks came good.

College Football Week 9 Upset Picks

We’re taking some shots here, because we’re done messing around.

Washington State (#11) at Stanford (#24)

There’s a lot of reasons not to pick Washington State here. Firstly, they’re coming off a hugely emotional win over Oregon. Secondly, there were long stretches of that game where the Cougars looked just terrible. Oregon didn’t quite have what it took to pull that game back within reach, but they didn’t fall short by much.

That makes it scary to bet on Washington State against a team as consistent and efficient as Stanford.

There’s two things that make this a promising pick. The first is that Washington State played competent defense for long stretches in the Oregon game. They survived the Ducks with their defense, which was new territory for Mike Leach.

The second is that Stanford hasn’t been as consistent as you’d like. The loss to Notre Dame was embarrassing, sure, but Notre Dame is very good. The loss to Utah (41-21)was more concerning, as Utah is not a great team. Altogether it’s been a while since Stanford have put together a solid performance, and might be in something of a slide.

Navy at Notre Dame

For what it’s worth, this is a great spread pick. Option teams almost always outperform against powerhouse programs and huge spreads, and there’s no reason to believe this game will be different. Remember the Army/Oklahoma game, where the Sooners only had the ball for 15 minutes? Same principles apply.

It’s also a wild moneyline pick, but that’s why you get +1100. I don’t have a lot else to say other than I hate Notre Dame and think they’re due for their late-season disappointment, and also that this is about the biggest line you can get this side of Hawaii @ Fresno State, and I’m not touching that game with ten-foot pole.

Iowa at Penn State

We’ve seen enough inconsistency from Penn State (and enough seriously lopsided wins from Iowa) to take a look at this upset spot. We’ve actually already seen this happen. Here’s Penn State losing to a less talented but well coached Big Ten team:

Did Iowa beat Wisconsin? Of course not! If the only argument against Iowa’s prospects here is that they failed to beat Wisconsin on the road, I’ll happily get in here at +215.

Also, Iowa is turning into an elite defense. Josh Jackson helped last year, but even without him the Hawkeyes have been one of the hardest teams in the country to put a big play on. Since big plays are the only kind of offense Penn State produces, this could be a mismatch.

Georgia at Florida

Now, you know that I’m not at all a fan of Florida football. I’ve seen this program demonstrate its potential, and then immediately do everything it could to waste it. I remember thinking Jim McElwain was a good hire.

That said, we’re starting to see cracks in Georgia’s armour. They lost an ugly game at Death Valley, which gives Florida the transitive win, and while they’re still measurably the better team this game could be a trap for the Bulldogs. The cocktail party is often an ugly game, and this line overrates Georgia’s chances as a road favorite slightly.