LSU Line Continues to Increase as Tigers Now 6.5-Point Favorites at Texas

• Texas has covered eight of their last ten games as an underdog.
• LSU’s become a heavier favorite as the line is now up to 6.5 points
• The Longhorns have lost nine of their last 11 as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.

The #6 LSU Tigers visiting Austin to face the #9 Texas Longhorns matchup is one of the signature games of Week 2 as College Gameday is in town and it’s the ABC Saturday nighter.

While its expected to be a very tight contest, bettors seem to feel that LSU has an edge. They opened as a 4.5-point favorite but the line has quickly climbed up to 6.5 points.

Is that the right move or is there value with the Longhorns?

LSU vs Texas Odds

Odds taken 09/05/19 .

Tigers Impressed In Week 1

The Tigers absolutely flattened Georgia Southern 55-3 in Week 1. While it’s not a game we can learn a lot from, there were a couple of aspects of the team that looked really strong. Namely, quarterback Joe Burrow, who finished the day 23-of-27 for 278 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions.

What’s interesting is that in the past, LSU would just line up and pound away at this type of opponent, using their big offensive line and running game to flatten them. Instead, they decided to put their new spread offense on display, which is unusual – especially since they were up 21-0 in the first quarter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NuRKV9ekNA

The Tigers actually only rushed for 122 yards on 33 carries while throwing the ball 39 times. That indicates that they really wanted to work on their passing game and it looked crisp.

Longhorns Avoid Week 1 Letdown

The Longhorns were victimized by a couple of Week 1 letdowns over the last two seasons, embarrassing themselves against Maryland in both cases.

That wasn’t the case this time around as they smoked Louisiana Tech 45-14. It’s nothing to really be proud of, but the fact that the Longhorns didn’t succumb to an upset again is a step in the right direction.

Quarterback Sam Ehlinger got his Heisman Trophy campaign off on the right foot as he compiled 310 total yards and four touchdowns, which is quite impressive. This was the type of effort the Longhorns expected and needed.

Texas Has Concerns on Both Sides of the Ball

If there was one area of concern for the Longhorns in the opener it’s that their defense didn’t get a ton of stops. They gave up 413 yards of total offense and while 145 of it came on two late drives when the Longhorns were up 38-0, they also had 144 on their first four drives where they got into scoring range twice (and missed two field goals).

If the Tigers offense is, in fact, legit and the passing game is no longer a source of weakness, the Longhorns could have a tough time slowing them down.

On offense they will only have one scholarship running back healthy, and their offensive line is probably going to be overmatched with the stout LSU defensive front. If the Longhorns aren’t able to run, that means it’ll be Ehlinger going up against one of the best secondaries in the country. Will that work?

What’s the Best Bet?

This feels like slight disrespect to Texas but they’re a program that hasn’t exactly delivered in recent seasons (outside of beating Oklahoma at the Red River Shootout). However, this feels like Ehlinger’s coming out party for the Heisman Trophy race.

Ehlinger has that magic of getting the job done. Yes, the running backs and beat up and the Longhorns are going up against an elite defense, but I trust Ehlinger to move the chains on third downs – either with his arm or legs – and keep Texas in the game. Texas is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a dog and I see them covering here again.

LSU is one of the best teams in the country but this won’t be easy for them. I expect Texas to really slow their ground game and make this into a dog fight. That being the case, I’ll take the points.