- The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 2.5-point favorites against the Ole Miss Rebels in the 2019 Egg Bowl
- Ole Miss is 4-7 this season but 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games
- Mississippi State can become bowl eligible for the 10th straight season with a victory
The Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-6, 2-5 SEC) are 2.5-point favorites against the Ole Miss Rebels (4-7, 2-5 SEC) in the 2019 Egg Bowl which kicks off Thanksgiving night at 7:30 PM ET.
Mississippi has had a disappointing season, but is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games. Meanwhile, Mississippi State can become bowl eligible for the 10th straight season with a victory. Let’s analyze this battle for fifth place in the SEC West.
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Ole Miss Rebels Odds
|Mississippi||+110||+2.5 (-110)||O 58.0 (-111)|
|Mississippi State||-130||-2.5 (-110)||U 58.0 (-109)|
Odds taken Nov. 27.
Clearly, we’re a long way from 2014. It was only five years ago when both programs achieved some of their greatest success. Of course, former Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen is back in Gainesville leading the Florida Gators after serving as Urban Meyer’s protege. And Hugh Freeze was run out of Oxford after numerous NCAA violations.
Incidentally, the 2014 Egg Bowl, which resulted in a 31-17 Rebels upset, was later vacated due to those aforementioned infractions.
Since then, the teams have alternated wins in the rivalry game and it’ll be Matt Luke on the sidelines for the Rebs and Joe Moorhead for the Bulldogs. As we look at the Mississippi State vs Ole Miss odds, the home team is a slight favorite. But there’s another angle I like which we’ll get to in a bit.
In the meantime, let’s preview this Turkey Day delight.
Game of Runs
Both teams feature impressive rushing attacks. Rebels freshman quarterback John Rhys Plumlee has been a revelation, churning out 989 yards on the ground in 2019 and 11 rushing touchdowns. All Plumlee did against LSU was bust off 212 rushing yards
Meanwhile, Bulldogs running back Kylin HIll is pretty good too. Hill leads the SEC in rushing with 1,215 yards and is averaging 5.8 yards per carry.
Those are just gaudy rushing stats on both sides of the field. And don’t forget, running back Jerrion Ealy (another freshman) has accounted for 640 yards and five TDs. I like the 1-2 punch for the road team here.
While it’s mostly a wash when it comes to common opponents for these two teams in 2019 (both have lost to LSU, Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M), at least Ole Miss was competitive in a couple of those defeats. Ole Miss nearly pulled upsets over the Tigers and Aggies and put up 37 against the Bayou Bengals.
All Mississippi State could muster was 13 against Coach O’s guys.
Ole Miss offensive coordinator Rich Rodriguez has his share of critics. But Rich Rod has the Ole Miss run game humming. I think it continues to bust off big gains at Davis Wade.
The Bowl is the Bowl!
Many times, when it comes to rivalry games — especially ones like this one where bragging rights trump bowl implications — the intangibles win out. And yes, even if Ole Miss wins and gets to 5-7, it can still become bowl eligible based on APR. The same goes for Mississippi State with a loss. But that’s a very unlikely scenario, especially in the Rebels’ case.
The Egg Bowl is, for all intents and purposes, their bowl game. And what better place to pull off a minor upset than in Starkvegas? When you look at the run game, the ability to get up for big games, and the factors outside the stat sheet, Ole Miss is the pick. I’m tempted to play the moneyline, but take the points, as I see the Rebels winning a close one.
Pick: Ole Miss +2.5 (-110)