Navy vs Memphis Odds, Spread & Picks (Thursday, Sept. 14)

• The Navy vs Memphis odds favor the Tigers by 14.5 points on Thursday night
• Memphis has outscored its opponents 93-17 through two games
• See the Navy vs Memphis odds, spread and picks below

The NFL isn’t the only game in town on Thursday night, as there’s also a pair of college football contests to sweat. One of those matchups is the AAC opener between Navy and Memphis, and online sportsbooks are expecting a blowout in the college football odds.

Navy vs Memphis Odds

The Tigers are currently 14.5 point favorites, in a contest with a total of 47.5. Memphis is currently drawing 72% of the spread wagers as of Tuesday morning, but those tickets are making up only 62% of the ATS handle per the college football public betting trends.

Kickoff for this conference tilt is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, TN, with ESPN providing the coverage, and clear skies currently in the forecast.

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Odds as of September 12 at BetMGM. Get a BetMGM promo code to bet on NCAA football this week.

Memphis Tigers Betting Analysis

The Tigers enter play fresh off back-to-back convincing wins. Memphis steamrolled Bethune-Cookman in their season opener, and followed up that performance by drubbing Arkansas State. The Tigers have outscored their first two opponents 93-17, averaging an impressive 5.4 yards per play, while converting 75% of their red zone trips into touchdowns.

Junior QB Seth Henigan is off to a fast start with 573 passing yards and 4 TD through two starts, while also finding the end zone once with his legs. Henigan shredded Navy in their lone meeting last season, throwing for 415 yards and two scores.

Let It Fly 🦅@seth_henigan ➡️ @heymeerlo#ALLIN | #GoTigersGo pic.twitter.com/hinDB5ozft

— Memphis Football (@MemphisFB) September 6, 2023

As for the Memphis running backs, they’ve been living in the paint. Blake Watson and Sutton Smith have combined for five rushing touchdowns already, while the team has seven scores total on the ground.

Defensively, the Tigers are off to their best start since 2000, holding their opponents to a combined 321 total yards. The team has yielded just 17 points total, and only three of those weren’t the result of a turnover by the Memphis offense. In their latest victory last Saturday, the Tigers recorded three sacks and nine tackles for a loss. They also forced four turnovers, one of which was returned for a defensive touchdown.

Navy’s triple-option presents a unique challenge for Memphis, but it’s one they’ve overcome in the past. The Tigers held the Midshipmen to 3.7 yards per rush in last year’s meeting, forcing a fumble and picking off QB Tai Lavatai twice.

Navy Midshipmen Betting Analysis

Lavatai is off to an underwhelming start to the 2023 campaign, as is the rest of the Navy offense. They were destroyed by Notre Dame 42-3 in Week Zero, before managing only 24 points in a win against FCS opponent Wagner in Week 2.

The Midshipmen are averaging just 4.0 yards per carry and have scored only three TD. Lavatai has a QBR of 33.9, one of the worst marks in the country, while just one of their five primary ball carriers is averaging over 4.7 yards per touch.

favorite flicks#GoNavy | #RollGoats pic.twitter.com/nQNLNgFAWW

— Navy Football (@NavyFB) September 11, 2023

Defensively, Navy shut out Wager last week, but were helpless against the Irish in their opener. Notre Dame hung 444 total yards on them, and a ridiculous 10.1 yards per pass attempt. The Midshipmen begin the week ranked 108th overall per SP+, 70 spots lower than the Tigers. Only 10 FBS teams grade out worse offensively than Navy, while their defense is currently a bottom-50 unit in the country.

Navy vs Memphis Picks

Despite the massive gap in SP+ rating, 14.5 points is simply too much in this matchup. The Tigers are getting far too much credit for beating up on a pair of atrocious programs, and will need to clean up the sloppiness on offense before we start taking them seriously.

Memphis had three turnovers in Week 1, and are a combined 9-of-28 on third downs this season. Speaking of turnovers, regression is likely coming for their defense, as they’ve forced five already.

Navy vs Memphis Recent Head-to-Head Results

Navy is going to do their best to slow down this game by running the ball relentlessly. Their 85% rush rate is one of the highest in the nation, and that clock-killing style of play will result in fewer possessions for the Tigers, making it more challenging for them to cover such a large spread.

Pick: Navy +14.5 (-110)