Northwestern vs Penn State Odds, Lines and Best Bet
- #11 Penn State is an 25.5-point favorite over Northwestern on Saturday, October 1st at 3:30 pm ET at Beaver Stadium, in University Park, PA
- The Nittany Lions are off to a perfect 4-0 start, while the Wildcats have lost three straight
- Read below for the Northwestern vs Penn State odds, analysis and betting prediction
#11 Penn State (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) got all they could handle from Purdue in Week 1, but since then they’ve been on cruise control. The Nittany Lions are 4-0 to start the season, winning each of the last three games by 19 or more points. Their winning ways should continue in Week 5, as they host a one-win Northwestern program on Saturday.
The Wildcats (1-3, 1-0 Big Ten) aren’t expected to put up much of a fight, as Penn State is a massive favorite in the college football odds.
Northwestern vs #11 Penn State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern Wildcats | +25.5 (-110) | +1400 | O 52 (-110) |
| Penn State Nittany Lions | -25.5 (-110) | -3500 | U 52 (-110) |
Odds as of September 28th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Get the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code.
The Nittany Lions opened up as 22-point favorites, but that number didn’t last long. It was quickly bet up to -26.5, but the line has since come down a point. As of Wednesday night, the majority of the spread action remains on Penn State to the tune of 57% of the ATS tickets and 67% of the handle.
The Big Ten matchup also features a total of 52, which is down half a point from the opening line. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm ET at Beaver Stadium, in University Park, PA, with ESPN providing the coverage, and 60 degree temperatures currently projected.
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Analysis
The Big Ten is loaded at the top this season, with three teams ranked in the top-10 in the National Championship odds. Penn State enters play averaging 39 points per contest, which is 10 points shy of #3 Ohio State, and 11 points behind #4 Michigan.
Another Saturday in Happy Valley 👌 pic.twitter.com/saGVJL82ec
— Penn State Football (@PennStateFball) September 27, 2022
Starting QB Sean Clifford has completed 64% of his passes so far for 890 yards and 8 TD, while the rushing game has answered the bell. Head coach James Franklin has tasked with improving the running game prior to the season, and so far it’s been clicking.
The Nittany Lions are averaging 5.4 yards per carry, and 186 rushing yards per game. The attack is led by freshman Nicholas Singleton, who’s gaining 9.0 yards per attempt, and has already hit paydirt four times.
A LOOSE BALL! @PennStateFball GETS IT! 👀 pic.twitter.com/dHTFTZVEcD
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 24, 2022
Defensively, Penn State is elite. They’re solid on all three levels and boast an exceptional secondary. They’re yielding only 16.8 points per game so far, and rank 12th in the nation in opponent points per play (0.219), and 27th in opponent yards per play (4.8).
Northwestern Wildcats Betting Analysis
Northwestern began the season with a victory over Nebraska across the pond, but it’s been downhill ever since. They’ve dropped three straight, including one versus an FCS opponent, averaging just 21 points per loss despite each opponent ranking outside the top-87 in the nation. If they struggled that poorly against below average competition, imagine what the Nittany Lions are going to do to them.
The Wildcats rank outside the top-75 in points per game, as well yards per carry, yards per throw, and giveaways. Starting QB Ryan Hilinski has put up 1,219 passing yards already, which is halfway to his career high. The problem is he’s committed five turnovers and absorbed five sacks, despite playing a cupcake schedule.
🚨 One-handed catch 🚨@kirtz__ x @NUFBFamily pic.twitter.com/cvLRT0WhRK
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) September 25, 2022
On the other side of the ball, Penn State would be wise to pound the rock. The Wildcats rank 107th in yards per carry allowed, and 101st in opponent rushing yards. They grade out as the 109th most efficient defense per ESPN FPI, which is worse than every Big Ten team except Nebraska.
Northwestern vs Penn State Pick
The Nittany Lions held their last three opponents to average of 12 points per game. They’ve surrendered a total of four touchdowns during that stretch, while forcing eight turnovers. We already know that Hilinski has a problem protecting the football, and that flaw is likely going to rear its ugly head again on Saturday.
Bottom-line, Northwestern is going to have an extremely difficult time moving the football. Penn State yields just 3.6 yards per rush, and once they bottle up the Wildcats’ ground game, they’re going to pin their ears back and unleash their vicious pass rush on Hilinski.
Statistically speaking, Northwestern boasts a less efficient offense than each of the Nittany Lions’ last three opponents (Central Michigan, Auburn and Ohio). Those teams struggled badly to put up points, and the Wildcats will as well.
Pick: Northwestern Under 13.5 Points (-120)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
