Ohio State Now Has Best Odds (-350) to Make 4-Team CFP; Are Buckeyes a Lock?

• The Buckeyes are now -350 favorites to make the College Football Playoff
• Ohio State still has three games remaining against top-25 teams
• Should Ohio State really have shorter odds than preseason favorites Alabama and Clemson, who remain undefeated?

The Ohio State Buckeyes are a perfect 6-0 to start the season and have been arguably the most impressive team in the country. As they enjoy a hard-earned bye in Week 7, sportsbooks have posted a prop where the Buckeyes are the favorite – of any team in the country – in the odds to make the College Football Playoff.

Are they a good bet to make college football’s national semifinals?

Odds to Make 4-Team College Football Playoff

*Odds taken Oct. 10, 2019.

Buckeyes Have Crushed Their Competition

The Buckeyes have been nothing short of awesome to start the year. They’re halfway through their calendar and it’s hard to remember a time at any point of any game where they’ve had to sweat. Their average margin of victory is 39.7 points per game and they’re 5-1 against the spread.

There were some questions as to whether the Buckeyes offense would be able to keep up their torrid pace after Urban Meyer retired last season. The team has been even more potent under Ryan Day.

More impressively has been the fact that – for the first time in a while – the Buckeye defense has been elite. They rank fourth in the nation in scoring defense (8.8 PPG), third in defensive efficiency at ESPN, and second in Defensive FEI at FootballOutsiders.

It’s worth noting that Ohio State hasn’t played too many cupcakes either. They’ve stomped Michigan State, Nebraska, Indiana, and Cincinnati. While none of those teams are College Football Playoff contenders, they are ranked 17th, 55th, 33rd, and 32nd respectively in the F/+ ratings, and the Buckeyes have mopped the floor with them, winning by 37.0 points per game.

Buckeyes Expected To Roll Through Their Schedule

ESPN’s FPI metric gives Ohio State at least a 78.3% chance to win every remaining game on the schedule. FPI gives them a 96% chance (or higher) in three of the final six (at Northwestern, vs Maryland, at Rutgers).

Their toughest test is a home date with No. 10 Penn State at the Shoe.

It’s not that the Buckeyes have an easy schedule the rest of the way; it’s how it sets up. In addition to hosting PSU, Ohio State also gets to face No. 8 Wisconsin in Columbus.

We’re still learning a lot about those two teams but it goes without saying that playing at home would give both a much easier time of winning.

ESPN’s FPI metric gives Ohio State at least a 78.3% chance to win every remaining game on the schedule.

As for the Buckeyes final game of the year, at No. 16 Michigan, the Wolverines are not what we expected in the preseason. They barely beat Iowa at home last week (10-3), nearly lost to Army at home earlier in the year (24-21, double OT), and were absolutely pasted by Wisconsin (35-14) albeit on the road.

Given how Jim Harbaugh does against his top rivals, nobody is expecting a Michigan win.

What’s The Best Bet?

The Buckeyes are a perfect 6-0 and should finish the season undefeated. I can’t see Wisconsin’s one-dimensional offense having success in Columbus, and while Penn State has been a surprise, a road win over this balanced Buckeye team is a huge ask.

Even if Ohio State loses once to a ranked team, they still might get in. Remember that Alabama has to play LSU, so one of those teams will have a loss, and the winner of that game will probably face Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. While everyone in the top-eight is undefeated right now, they won’t stay that way.

That being the case, the Buckeyes do seem like a good bet at -350. A lot would have to go wrong for them to miss the College Football Playoff and they have yet to make a single misstep halfway through the year. Ryan Day is running a tight ship.

Pick: Ohio State to make College Football Playoff (-350)