Oklahoma’s Title Odds Fade After Loss to Baylor; Michigan, Cincinnati Improve

• No.8 Oklahoma lost to No. 13 Baylor in Week 11 of college football
• The Sooners’ National Title odds faded drastically as a result
• Michigan and Cincinnati both improved their Title odds in Week 11

The CFP National Championship odds experienced reshuffling following a dramatic Week 11 of college football. No. 8 Oklahoma plummeted down the board after suffering their first loss of the season at the hands of Baylor.

No. 6 Michigan and No. 5 Cincinnati both improved their title odds in Week 11, while Georgia remains heavily favored to win the National Championship.

The table below shows the updated CFP National Championship odds following Week 11.

National Championship Odds

Odds as of November 14th at FanDuel.

Down Goes Oklahoma

Oklahoma (9-1) saw its National Title odds fade from +1400 to +4300 after losing to Baylor in Week 11. The Sooners entered the game undefeated and riding a 17-game winning streak dating back to October 2020. Baylor’s defense dominated Oklahoma’s offense in a 27-14 victory.

Baylor held Oklahoma to 260 total yards — OU’s lowest output ever under coach Lincoln Riley.  QB Caleb Williams threw two interceptions before getting benched in the second half for Spencer Rattler. The preseason Heisman favorite didn’t fare much better, completing 4-of-6 passes for 36 yards.

The nation's longest active win streak is over!

No. 13 Baylor hands No. 8 Oklahoma its first loss of the season 🐻 pic.twitter.com/oJ5sF5KXqa

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 13, 2021

Oklahoma’s loss to Baylor virtually crushes their chances of making the College Football Playoff. The Sooners have been scraping by with several close losses this season, which hasn’t impressed the playoff committee. OU was ranked eighth in the initial CFP rankings despite being undefeated at the time.

History suggests a one-loss Oklahoma can still make the CFP if they run the table and win the Big 12 Championship. Each time OU has made the CFP, they’ve had a loss on their resume. This year just feels different, however, as Oklahoma hasn’t been as dominant offensively as they’ve been in years past.

Michigan, Cincinnati Among Risers

Michigan (9-1) and Cincinnati (10-0) were big risers in the CFP National Championship odds following Week 11. The Wolverines improved from +8000 to +5000 after beating Penn State 21-17, while the Bearcats went from +10000 to +6000 after Saturday’s action. Cincinnati beat South Florida 45-28 on Friday.

How bout them #Bearcats⁉️ pic.twitter.com/1LatU3ung7

— Cincinnati Football (@GoBearcatsFB) November 13, 2021

Cincinnati still needs outside help in order to become the first Group of 5 school to make the CFP. One-loss Alabama, Ohio State, and Oregon teams are all likely to make the playoff over an undefeated Cincinnati. Luke Fickell’s team doesn’t have any big games left on their schedule, so they’ll be rooting for chaos in the final stretch.

Oklahoma’s loss to Baylor has truly opened the door for several CFP longshots.  Oklahoma State, Notre Dame and Wake Forest are one-loss teams who also saw their National Championship odds improve after winning in Week 11. The Cowboys had the most impressive victory, thumping TCU by a 63-17 score.

dark mode W.#LetsRide I @OKTurnpike pic.twitter.com/z3xtrRyLOJ

— OSU Cowboy Football (@CowboyFB) November 14, 2021

Oklahoma State might have a CFP case if they beat Oklahoma in Stillwater and capture the Big 12 Championship. It’s a similar story for Michigan, who will need to beat rival Ohio State and capture the Big Ten Title. Cincinnati still has the best outside shot, as their fifth-place CFP ranking highlights the respect the committee has for their undefeated record.

Georgia a Tier Above Rest

Georgia remains a heavy National Title favorite after Week 11 of CFB. The Bulldogs took down Tennessee 41-17 on Saturday thanks to a strong outing from their rushing attack. UGA went a perfect 8-0 against SEC competition this season, winning their conference games by an average of 32 points.

No. 1 Georgia takes down Tennessee in Neyland Stadium 🐶

The Bulldogs finish conference play undefeated for the first time since 1982. pic.twitter.com/YLLjOFlKOn

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 14, 2021

Oddsmakers agree that it’s pretty much Georgia and everyone else when it comes to the 2022 National Championship. Ohio State might be UGA’s biggest threat for a title, as the Buckeyes became the second-favorite after decimating Purdue in Week 11. CJ Stroud and OSU exploded for 624 yards against the Boilermakers.

Reigning champion Alabama stayed put at +450 in FanDuel’s National Championship odds after beating New Mexico State 59-3 in Week 11. Alabama has the Iron Bowl vs Auburn upcoming, in addition to a potential SEC Title clash with Georgia. The Tide won’t make the CFP if they lose to Auburn, but they could sneak in with a strong showing against UGA in Atlanta.