SMU vs Tulane Odds, Preview and Picks

• #21 Tulane is laying 3 points in the SMU vs Tulane odds in Week 12 college football action on Thursday night (Nov. 17)
• SMU has won three straight, while Tulane is fresh off having its five-game winning streak snapped
• The latest SMU vs Tulane odds are available below, along with analysis and a betting prediction

It’s getting crowded atop the AAC standings. After #21 Tulane (8-2, 5-1 AAC) was upset by UCF in Week 11, there are three programs tied for first in the conference with identical 8-2 records.

The Green Wave can temporarily reclaim sole possession of the AAC lead with a win over SMU (6-4, 4-2 AAC) on Thursday night, and online sportsbooks seem to like their chances in the college football odds.

SMU vs Tulane Odds

Odds as of November 15th at DraftKings. Get the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code.

Tulane is currently a 3-point favorite, and the betting public does not think that line is nearly high enough. 63% of the spread wagers as of Tuesday morning are backing the Green Wave, as is 93% of the spread handle.

The game features a total of 65, up half a point from the opening line, and there’s a strong chance that number is higher by kickoff. 64% of the over/under bets are backing over 65, as is 78% of all money that’s been wagered on the total.

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Thursday’s matchup is set to get underway at 7:30 pm ET at the Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, LA, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage. The forecast is currently calling for 43-degree game-time temperatures, and sustained 9 mph winds.

Tulane Green Wave Betting Analysis

The Green Wave’s loss in Week 11 was their first in conference play. It came against a UCF team who they’re tied with in the college football conference championship odds, and one they could easily meet in the AAC Championship Game, providing they don’t suffer any more defeats.

As it stands right now, Tulane is likely in line for a New Years Six Bowl bid, but they’ll need to keep a clean record from here on out to guarantee that.

The matchup versus SMU will come down to whether or not they can stop this potent Mustangs attack. As we’ll explore, SMU’s offense has been feasting lately, but on paper, the Green Wave have the ingredients to at least slow them down.

One goal in mind, go 1-0.#RollWave | #NOLABuilt pic.twitter.com/Giq1c8lfjc

— Tulane Football (@GreenWaveFB) November 13, 2022

Tulane is allowing just 21 points per game, and is top-28 in the nation in opponent yards per game and points per play. They’re especially strong against the pass, holding enemy QB’s to 6.3 yards per attempt and 190 passing yards per outing.

Offensively though, is where the Green Wave’s biggest advantage will lie. Tulane is an above-average offense, ranking top-52 in scoring, yards per play and red zone efficiency. The Mustangs’ defense on the other hand, is suspect. SMU is allowing over 34 points per game, and 470 yards of total offense.

The Mustangs have yielded at least 40 points in four of their past seven outings, and in three of four games versus top-65 ranked teams.

SMU Betting Analysis

It’s because of its leaky defense that SMU needs to be so efficient offensively. The program grades out 10th offensively per SP+, and ranks top-13 in points per game, total offense and points per play.

They average 335 passing yards per game and 8.6 passing yards per attempt. QB Tanner Mordecai has an impressive 27-to-7 TD-to-INT rate, while boasting the 18th-best passer rating in the country.

Bulls, conquered. Bowl, secured.
Up next: the Green Wave@AcmeBrick | #PonyUpDallas pic.twitter.com/uhAwJHbPVW

— SMU FOOTBALL (@SMUFB) November 13, 2022

The Mustangs have scored 163 points while winning their last three games. They’re fresh off a 41-point outburst against USF, which helped them secure a Bowl bid along the way. SMU got major production from its ground game in its latest outing, gaining 273 rushing yards at 10.4 yards a pop.

If there’s a weakness of this Tulane defense it’s against the run, as the Green Wave sit just 77th in total rushing defense (compared to 18th versus the pass). As a result, we should expect a more balanced SMU attack, with both Mordecai and lead back Tyler Lavine playing prominent roles.

SMU vs Tulane Prediction

The Mustangs have actually beaten Tulane eight straight times, but instead of making a play on a side, let’s target the total instead. SMU has been held below 27 points once all season, and even if we expect offensive sledding to be tough against the Green Wave, the Mustangs will still put up their fair share of points.

Their potent offense and sub-par defense have led to plenty of high-scoring games already this season, and Thursday’s matchup profiles as another. The over has hit in three of SMU’s last five outings, and in three of Tulane’s last four contests as well.

SMU vs Tulane Recent Results

These two teams also have a rich history of high-scoring affairs, with five of their past seven meetings producing at least 66 points. As mentioned above, this total is only likely to increase from here, so if you’re looking to back the over, do so quickly.

Pick: Over 65 (-110)