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Spread in Oklahoma (-24) vs Kansas State Moves Four Whole Points Thanks to 93.1% of Betting Handle Coming in on Sooners

Jake Mitchell

by Jake Mitchell in College Football

Updated Apr 3, 2020 · 2:55 PM PDT

Kansas State football stadium
Oklahoma heads to Manhattan to play the Wildcats this week. Photo from Mr. Konerko (Wiki Commons).
  • Oklahoma is a 24-point favorite on the road at Kansas State
  • The line moved 4 whole points after opening at Oklahoma -20
  • Oklahoma is 3-2 against the spread, but only 1-2 when they go on the road

The #5 Sooners take their undefeated 7-0 record into Manhattan, Kansas this week for a game against the 4-2 Wildcats of Kansas State.

After the line opened at -20, Oklahoma has now moved all the way to a 24-point favorite.

It appears to be a massive mismatch on paper, but the Oklahoma vs Kansas State odds paint a picture of a game that could be closer than many expect.

#5 Oklahoma vs Kansas State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Oklahoma Sooners -24 (-105) -2500 O 57.5 (-110)
Kansas State Wildcats +24 (-115) +1175 U 57.5 (-110)

Odds taken October 25th.

According to one prominent sportsbook, the money has come in heavily on the Sooners; 93.1% of the handle is on Oklahoma, along with 76.6% of the bets. Because of that, Oklahoma has moved to 24-point favorites after opening at -20. This Sooner team, led by Jalen Hurts, has been on a tear this season, and the public is absolutely in love with them.

Oklahoma has been one of the sport’s powerhouses this year, going 7-0 and scoring an average of 50.4 points per game.

However, against the spread, they are just a mild 4-3. They’ve won most of their games in blowout fashion, and the fact that they have only a 4-3 record against the number speaks to just how high expectations are for this team.

Like the Sooners, Kansas State also hold a 4-2 record against the spread. They, however, have gone about it in a far different manner. They’re scoring only 30.2 points per game, and their 372 yards per game stand in stark contrast to Oklahoma’s 612.9.

Which Way Against the Spread?

Both of these teams have been vastly better against the spread at home in 2019. The Wildcats and Sooners are both 3-1 when they play host, but not nearly as strong on the road. Oklahoma is 1-2 against the spread when they travel.

The last time the Sooners made the trip to Manhattan in 2017, they escaped with only a 7-point win, despite coming in as a big favorite behind eventual Heisman winner Baker Mayfield. The situation is extremely similar this time around.

The line has moved from +20 to +24 for the Wildcats, and the value in the home underdog has only gotten better this week. They may be under a new head coach in Chris Klieman, but this Kansas State team is the same kind of fundamental, defensive team that gives great teams fits when they come to Manhattan.

What’s the Best Bet?

The total has finished over in 3 of their 4 games at home, but when they travel, that changes, as all they’re games have gone under in road games or at a neutral site.

The Wildcats, meanwhile, love to play a low-scoring game. The total has finished under in 4 of 6 games, and in their 4 home games, the total has finished over only 1 time. Kleiman’s team wants to make this game ugly, as they have in recent weeks against TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma State. If they can do that, as they have a history of doing, the under is the way to go.

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