UNC vs Pittsburgh Odds, Picks, and Prediction

• Pittsburgh and North Carolina face off in a critical ACC Clash Thursday night
• If Pittsburgh can pull of the victory, they are primed to be in the ACC Championship game
• Read below for odds, analysis and a pick
  

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It’s Thursday night football in the ACC when #21 Pittsburgh (7-2) hosts North Carolina (5-4). The game kicks off at 7:30pm on ESPN.

This matchup serves as a critical one for Pittsburgh. The Panthers are looking to capitalize on an impressive 2021 campaign by making its way to the ACC Championship game, as they are favorites in the ACC Championship odds.

They are one game ahead in the Coastal Division of the ACC and can’t afford to drop this one to keep that goal alive. They are coming off a 54-29 win against Duke last week.

North Carolina vs Pittsburgh Odds

Odds via DraftKings on November 10th

The Panthers opened as five point favorites, are are now laying just under a touchdown.

North Carolina is coming off an improbable comeback last week against Wake Forest. In what has been a disappointing season for the Tar Heels, this was a bright spot. They overcame a 45-27 third quarter deficit to defeat the Demon Deacons, 58-55. Will this be the moment that gives North Carolina momentum to finish the season?

Is North Carolina’s Offensive Line Figuring It Out?

The biggest thing that hampered North Carolina early on was its offensive line. It’s also what will be tested most against Pittsburgh.

Thursday night in the Steel City 🌉#CarolinaFootball 🏈 #BeTheOne pic.twitter.com/Jgan3Q6XMq

— Carolina Football (@UNCFootball) November 9, 2021

Line Yards Per Rush (LYPR), is one of the best metrics to successfully measure the effectiveness of an offensive line. Oftentimes when watching a football game, we only notice the offensive line when it’s making mistakes rather than controlling the game. This is one way to stop that from happening. LYPR uses various metrics to measure how much of a “push” the offensive line is getting and puts less emphasis on the individual running back.

In North Carolina’s early season defeat against Georgia Tech, and the overall low point of the Tar Heel season, they had a measly 2.2 LYPR. Against Virginia Tech, the eye test told the story of the offensive line troubles. They were repeatedly blown off the ball, gave up sacks and tackles for a loss. This is a big part of how the season has gotten sideways at times for North Carolina.

Since then, things have changed. Last week, North Carolina was able to balloon that number to 3.4 yards and a collective 124 yards. When the offensive line has been able to do this, it’s been huge. In games where they’ve had over 3 LYPR, they are undefeated. It makes sense, too. They become multi-faceted in offense. When they are able to do that, things open up for preseason Heisman Candidate Sam Howell.

Can they continue this trend?

Pittsburgh Front Seven Has Impressed

I’m not sure many anticipated Pittsburgh’s defense being as good as it has been this season. The Panthers defense ranks 3rd in the ACC and 2nd in the ACC in rushing defense. The most impressive aspect of the Panthers defense has been its Front Seven.

⬆️ in the @CFBPlayoff Rankings

2️⃣1️⃣#H2P » #WeNotMe pic.twitter.com/7lhdrxkYb3

— Pitt Football (@Pitt_FB) November 10, 2021

As I’ve noted in previous articles, “stuff rate” is one of my favorite ways to handicap a football team. Stuff rate is a metric that measures how much push a teams defensive front seven is getting. It uses various metrics to evaluate the success rate of a defensive line. It puts less emphasis on the effectiveness of the opponents offensive line. Pittsburgh’s “stuff rate” numbers have been sensational.

They had five consecutive games with a stuff rate over 20 which is well above the national average. There is perhaps not one single thing that has contributed to the Panthers success more the less. When you control the LOS, particularly in a league without many dominant lines, you’re going to win many football games.

Thursday night appears destined to be a game that is won at the line of scrimmage. If Pittsburgh makes North Carolina one-dimensional, it will spell doom for them. The front seven of the Panthers will play a big role on if that happens or not.

Best Bet and Prediction on UNC vs Pitt

Which team will win the battle in the trenches? That will likely be the team that wins this game.

North Carolina could be turning the corner, but I still have a hard time believing you’ll see enough consistent play from them to win here. In most games, when things have gone poorly for the Tar Heels, they’ve gone very poorly. I think you’ll see a similar story here.

You may get better opportunities to bet this number live, but Pittsburgh still covers the pregame one. Expect them to make North Carolina a one-dimensional offense, and pull away in the second half.

• Pick: Pittsburgh -6 (-120), side bet to North Carolina 2H TT under 16.5 (+105)