UNC vs Virginia Tech Odds, Spread and Best Bet – September 3rd

• #10 North Carolina is a 5.5-point road favorite over Virginia Tech on Friday (September 3rd, 6 pm ET)
• The Tar Heels averaged 537.3 yards on offense and 41.7 points per game in 2020
• Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

ACC football is back. The Power 5 conference enters the season with three ranked teams, including #10 North Carolina, who will make its season debut on Friday (September 3rd) at Virginia Tech.

Kickoff is scheduled for 6 pm ET at what’s expected to be a full Lane Stadium, in Blacksburg, VA, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

North Carolina vs Virginia Tech Odds

Odds as of  Sept. 1st at DraftKings.

The Tar Heels opened as a 6.5-point favorite, but that number has moved a full point in the Hokies favor. The contest features a 64 point total, and as of Wednesday, the spread and over/under betting action is completely one-sided.

88% of the spread tickets are on Virginia Tech, while 88% of the total bets have been placed on the over.

High Expectations For UNC in 2021

North Carolina enters 2021 with lofty expectations. They feature a Heisman Trophy candidate at QB in Sam Howell, and all five starters on their offensive line are back. The Tar Heels defense is full of exceptional athletes and high recruits, and the team is fresh off an Orange Bowl appearance.

Week 1 is finally here 🙌#CarolinaFootball 🏈 #BeTheOne pic.twitter.com/VjFahj4gsb

— Carolina Football (@UNCFootball) August 30, 2021

Success on offense this season should be expected, despite a few key losses. Running backs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter both departed for the NFL, as did leading receiver Dyami Brown. UNC brought in Ty Chandler, who has over 2,000 rushing yards on his resume, from Tennessee and the program is expecting big things from returning wideouts led by Josh Downs.

Howell meanwhile, is poised for another big year. He racked up 3,586 passing yards and 30 TD in 2020, and helped the Tar Heels average 7.6 yards per play. The projected 1st Round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, averaged 10.2 yards per attempt, and owns the best Pro Football Focus grade on big time throws since 2019.

Sam Howell on 20+ yard throws since 2019:

🚀 32 TDs (1st)
🚀 59 Big-Time Throws (1st)
🚀 96.8 PFF Passing Grade (T-1st)pic.twitter.com/6ghU99kAaG

— PFF College (@PFF_College) August 27, 2021

UNC ran play action at one of the highest rates in college football, and was able to do so because of an elite rushing attack. They put up 235.8 rushing yards per game in 2020, averaging 5.8 yards per carry.

The Hokies defense struggled badly in 2020, yielding a ton of yards both through the air and on the ground. Teams put up 266 passing yards per outing against VT, while rushing for 181.5 yards. Virginia Tech is hoping Clemson transfer Jordan Williams can help solve their run defense woes, but if they struggle to stop the run again, North Carolina’s play action game will become even more effective.

Hokies Will Want to Establish the Run

The Virginia Tech starting quarterback job once again belongs to Braxton Burmeister, after an inconsistent and injury plagued 2020 season. Burmeister completed just 46% of his passes in his first three games, but ended the year with a 74% completion rate over his final two starts.

It remains to be seen which version of the QB will show up on Friday, but the Hokies would be wise to keep the ball on the ground. They averaged over 240 rushing yards per outing in 2020, and UNC’s defense is much better suited to stop the pass.

https://twitter.com/BFISH804/status/1311440714664996864

Burmeister also boasts a strong rushing element to his game, posting 182 yards and 2 TD on the ground in 2020. Virginia Tech was 3-1 in games started by him last season, and 2-5 in contests started by other QB’s.

North Carolina vs Virginia Tech Pick

When these two teams met in 2020, North Carolina walked away with a 56-45 victory. Howell was incredibly efficient in that matchup, and has owned the Hokies in two career starts. He’s completed 61.1% of his passes against them for 605 yards, while posting an 8-0 TD-to-INT rate.

UNC should have no problem moving the football, while Virginia Tech is no offensive slouch. They finished 14th in yards per play in 2020, and 23rd in points per drive. They scored at least 33 points in seven of 11 contests, and if they stay committed to the run, and Burmeister shows the form he did late last season, another shootout with the Tar Heels could be on tap.

Pick: Over 64 (-105)