USC vs Notre Dame Odds and Picks

• The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 7-point favorites over the USC Trojans in their NCAA football game on Saturday, October 23
• Notre Dame is 5-1 on the season and 6-2 in their last eight games versus Syracuse; that includes a 30-27 home win in 2019
• See the odds, breakdown, and betting advice below

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1) still has plenty of issues but do keep winning games. Consider that Notre Dame is averaging less than 100 yards rushing per game and has won three games by just a field goal this year. Meanwhile, USC (3-3) is just trying to stay at or above .500.

Notre Dame holds a 49-37-5 record in the series with USC. However, the two teams did not play each other last year.

Still, it’s Notre Dame who finds a way to beat USC with frequency. Even with a 7-point spread on the road, the Fighting Irish are carrying 57% of the betting money. The Fighting Irish are 4-0 straight up at home in the last four games at South Bend.

USC vs Notre Dame Odds

Odds as of October 20th at DraftKings

Saturday’s game is set for a 7:30 pm ET kickoff at South Bend. Dry conditions and a temperature of 50 degrees are in the forecast. NBC is carrying the broadcast. After opening up at 57, the total has stayed mostly around 57 to 58  for the majority of the week.

Line Movement?

Depending upon the sportsbook, the opening line showed Notre Dame opening around a one-touchdown favorite. This line has not budged much.

I’m even more annoyed by today with the firing of Coach O because Notre Dame refuses to get rid of a wide receiver coach and O line coach. Coach O won a chip and we haven’t but they refuse to remain stagnant. Yet here we are. #GoIrish

— ⚓Nobody⚓️ (@Uptown_Crowned) October 17, 2021

In terms of public betting, 57% of the bets placed against the spread are on the Irish. The moneyline splits are showing 57% of the bets are as well. In terms of the total, 57% of the public bets are on the Over.

Notre Dame Hiding Offensive Issues?

Notre Dame was once a team that could be trusted to cover spread reliably – but it’s not happening this season. There’s a multitude of problems plaguing Brian Kelly’s squad this season, including three problems that appear to be the offensive line, quarterback play, and the wide receiver coach.

Even with a decent defense, Notre Dame likely will have a challenging time against USC on Saturday. Part of that reasoning is how erratic the offense is.

Brian Kelly on the #NotreDame quarterbacks: "Jack Coan continues to be the guy we feel like gives us the best chance to win. A mixture of him and Tyler Buchner."

— Patrick Engel (@PatrickEngel_) October 18, 2021

The offensive line has caused Jack Coan to look poor at times, to say the least. Coan is not a quarterback who has shown well under pressure. Drew Pyne is more mobile but has been very inaccurate. Combine that with an offensive line that cannot block well and wide receivers missing routes, one gets the recipe for an offensive mess.

In scoring offense, Notre Dame is #50 overall. They are scoring only 31.0 points per game.

USC Has Issues Too

Will USC be able to keep up scoring-wise with Notre Dame? The theory is that they could. The Trojans do average 32.2 points per game on the season. They are only 3-3 against the spread, however. There are further troubles as well.

The Trojans allow 148.3 yards rushing per contest on defense. Their passing defense is better as that yields just under 234 yards per game. A good chunk of those yards has been gained from mobile quarterbacks.

USC is in the the Top Left: Good offense, bad defense
Notre Dame is in the Bottom Right: Good Defense, bad offense

The USC defense vs Notre Dame offense matchup will be… interesting. https://t.co/kDYacbMbVr

— USC Analytics (@USCanalytics) October 19, 2021

Like we mentioned above, USC’s offense is pretty good but that defense is third-worst in scoring defense among Pac-12 teams.

USC’s Kendall Slovis could cause some issues for Notre Dame but has his own too.

Trend Spotting

Notre Dame has won six of the last eight meetings and yet the games have been mostly close. The last game was a 30-27 nail-biting win by the Fighting Irish.

Against the spread has been a scary prospect at times for Notre Dame, the Fighting Irish again have won three times by three or fewer points. Every one of those games was one that Notre Dame was favored by more points.

Gutsy win by Notre Dame football headed into the bye week. We fans need a week off, too. #GoIrish

— Steve Bowen (@SteveBowenWx) October 10, 2021

The Fighting Irish do not have the coaching issues that USC has but the argument is that their issues are significant.

Notre Dame and USC tend to lean toward the over. The teams have combined for 57 or more points in five of the last six meetings. The Fighting Irish should cover late as the bye week pays dividends for their defense.

• Pick: Notre Dame -7 (-105)