USC vs Oregon Prediction, Odds & Picks (Saturday, Nov. 11)

• USC battles Oregon in a Week 11 Pac-12 clash on Saturday, November 11th.
• The Trojans are priced as significant road underdogs against the Ducks.
• Read below for USC vs Oregon prediction, odds, and picks for Saturday’s Week 11 game.

Caleb Williams and the unranked USC Trojans will look to revitalize their season by securing an upset win over the #6 Oregon Ducks in College Football Week 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm PT and the game will be televised nationally on FOX.

Oddsmakers aren’t giving Lincoln Riley’s team much of a chance, setting USC as 15-point road underdogs at Autzen Stadium in Eugene. The over/under is offered at 74, which is no surprise given the offensive firepower on both sides.

Let’s get into the USC vs Oregon odds and offer our predictions for Saturday’s Pac-12 game.

USC vs Oregon Odds

Oregon is a heavy -700 moneyline favorite in the Pac-12 college football odds, meaning they have an 88% implied win probability.

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Odds as of November 9, 2023, at Caesars Sportsbook. Sign up with the Caesars Sportsbook App to bet on USC vs Oregon. 

USC vs Oregon Trends & Public Money

The Week 11 college football public betting splits show that Oregon is the consensus public pick in this game. The Ducks are receiving 87% of the moneyline handle and 61% of the spread handle. The Trojans are actually receiving 63% of the spread bets, but the money wagered isn’t substantial.

A potential sharp play on this game is the “over” of 73.5 points, which is something we’ve factored into our USC vs Oregon prediction. The over in this game is receiving 79% of the handle with only 57% of bets, indicating some big-money bettors.

This will be the first meeting between the two teams since the Pac-12 Championship game in 2020, in which Oregon won 31-24 as three-point underdogs. Oregon is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings between the two teams.

Trojans Betting Analysis

USC enters this Week 11 college football game with a 7-3 record following a 52-42 loss to Washington last weekend. The Huskies were three-point favorites in the game and had no issues covering the spread behind another strong performance from Michael Penix Jr.

Caleb Williams shares an emotional moment with his family after the loss pic.twitter.com/4WJemvAb4r

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 5, 2023

USC’s quarterback Caleb Williams is having a stellar season with 3,010 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. However, injuries have piled up for the Trojans’ defense, which ranks 111th nationally in points allowed.

USC made a much-overdue move this week, firing defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, who has been in that role under Lincoln Riley since their Oklahoma days. Defensive line coach Shaun Nua and inside linebackers coach Brian Odom will serve as USC’s co-defensive coordinators for the remainder of the season.

Ducks Betting Analysis

Oregon comes into this game boasting a stellar 8-1 record following a 63-19 blowout win over California last week. This is actually the same Golden Bears team that USC only beat by one point in a high-scoring affair back in Week 9.

Oregon Quarterback Bo Nix has played at an extremely high level this season, throwing for 2,723 yards with 25 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. Nix recently became the second favorite in the Heisman odds, and he can bolster his case by defeating the reigning Heisman winner.

Hitting the mark.

9️⃣0️⃣ career touchdown passes for @BoNix10 #GoDucks pic.twitter.com/GyPoglGo8I

— Oregon Football (@oregonfootball) November 4, 2023

Not only do the Ducks possess one of the best quarterbacks in college football, but their leading running back Bucky Irving is among the best in the Pac-12. Irving averages 91.2 rushing yards per game, has scored nine touchdowns on the ground, and gains an average of 6.9 yards per carry.

Defensively, the Ducks aren’t allowing their opponents to have much success both on the ground and through the air. Oregon is allowing under 200 passing yards per game and under 100 rushing yards, while ranking 2nd in scoring defense among Pac-12 teams.

USC vs Oregon Prediction

USC’s loss to Washington puts the team in a must-win position this week to salvage any hope of making the Pac-12 championship game. Oregon, meanwhile, also has its eyes set on the Pac-12 Championship game but has even bigger College Football Playoff aspirations.

Oregon’s offense should be able to put up points against USC’s porous defense, but Caleb Williams will also challenge the Ducks’ secondary. This line has already climbed past the two-touchdown mark, and we aren’t overly confident the Ducks will run away with this one.

USC’s interim DC, Coach Shaun Nua, on this weeks challenge against Oregon. pic.twitter.com/ONIQU1aXEF

— Trojan Football ✌️fan (@TrojanFBx) November 8, 2023

Since Riley took over the coaching role for Southern California, the Trojans have only suffered one regular-season loss by two or more scores. We’d still lean toward Oregon if we had to make an ATS pick, but our best bet is going to be the game total.

This total is still too low for a game that could get well into the 80s. The combo of Williams’ incredible offensive talent and the Trojans’ miserable defense has led to the over cashing in seven straight USC games. Furthermore, it’s hit in four of six games between USC and Oregon at Autzen Stadium.

• USC vs Oregon Pick: Over 74 Points (-110)